Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Hill Prince Stakes (G2)

Hill Prince Stakes Picks n' Plays

By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

 

Saturday at 3:48 pm Eastern time is the $300,000 Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes, for 3-year-olds on the Turf at 1 and 1/8 miles, held at Aqueduct Racetrack. The meet is called Belmont at Aqueduct as the usual Fall season at Belmont Park has been shifted by NYRA to Aqueduct due to construction and renovation at Belmont. So, if you are planning a trip just make sure you go to the Big A and not Belmont. 

Here is your 10-horse field with Morning Line Odds:

 

Hall of Fame Trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey III has 2 bullets in his gun as he enters 4-1 Limited Liability and 7-2 Celestial City.  Of the two we like Limited Liability.  He has progressed slowly but surely, breaking his maiden at Keenland in April, finishing 3^rd in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, 7^th in the Belmont Derby, then 3^rd last month in the Virginia Derby. Throughout his speed figures have increased. With Turf it always depends on lane traffic but having Jose Ortiz on board, who has been on this horse for every race will help. This horse is a closer.

 

An interesting entry is 9-2 Mackinnon with Flavian Prat aboard. Chad Brown will train this horse for the 1^st time, taking over from Doug O’Neill who trained him out west where he had an impressive 2-year-old racing year including 3^rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. He has had a so-so 3-year-old campaign starting on the dirt before going back to the Turf. I think a change of scenery and having Chad Brown take over will result in a top 3 placing for this colt.

 

Chad Brown also saddles Unanimous Consent with Manny Franco aboard at morning line odds of 6-1. He has 3 wins out of 5 starts as well as a win at Aqueduct in the Woodhaven Stakes last April. He was 4^th last time out, finishing just behind Limited Liability in the Virginal Derby with an impressive speed figure. I believe the mile and an eight will prove to be his preferred distance.

 

As far as the rest of the field Celestial City can’t be ignored, especially being in the one hole.  He is more of an early pace setter and from this position might just go and try to hang on. He gets Jose Lezcano aboard.

 

I see Celestial City in front coming around the final turn with a stretch run of MacKinnon, Unanimous Consent and Limited Liability coming from behind these three to nip them at the wire.

 

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Limited Liability

$2 Trifecta Box: Limited Liability, Mackinnon, Celestial City, Unanimous Consent (total bet $48)

$2 place: MacKinnon

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

International Standouts in Belmont Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

An international field of 13 3-year-old colts, including entries from Ireland and France, are set to travel 1 ¼ miles over the turf in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) on the close of the spring meet.  The only thing that's missing is an entry from Japan.

 

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

 

All the colts have seen graded stakes competition before and either won or were in the money, making for a tough analysis of the race and pace. Because of that, I chose to use three criteria to make selections.

1. Stamina and breeding - find the best of the best and give a plus to those that have proven their ability to stay.

2. Running style based on how the pace is expected to play out. In this case, a moderate pace is expected, and closers might have a rough time in the stretch.

3. And those who've been over the course get a plus.

Given the above, the 13 - Stone Age has shown his ability to go the distance on the lawn. He likes the front and stays, pulling away two furlongs from home in his last win.

10 - Nations Pride has also gone the distance while tracking off a leader finishing with a furious pace. Hard to argue with these two on top, given their experience, running style, and connections. They only lack a trip over Belmont's inner turf, but their breeding is all about turf racing. 

Now are those who best suit the course and have done well at a distance. There are three colts who have the breeding to go longer with running styles that should play well here.

3 - Napoleonic War, 11 – Emmanuel, and 12 - Limited Liability were the top three finishers in the Pinnine Ridge Stakes in early June.

Emmanuel is a front runner and was dragging the others along at a pedestrian pace but forestalled any chance for deep closers to win.

But Limited Liability, who ran in the back, was able to muster a closing kick despite the pace, making up 9 lengths to lose by one and a half.  

7 - Sy Dog and 9 - Tiz the Bomb also have some of the factors above and could impact the outcome and have to be considered in the exotics.  

Handigambling $100

$1 Trifecta - 10, 13 with 10, 13, 3, 11, 12 with 10, 13, 3, 11, 12, 7, 9   = $40

 $2 Exacta - 10, 13 with 3, 11, 12, 7, 9,  = $20

 $1 Exacta - 3, 11, 12, 7, 9 with 10, 13  = $10

 $20 Win 13

 $10 Win 10