Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

International Standouts in Belmont Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

An international field of 13 3-year-old colts, including entries from Ireland and France, are set to travel 1 ¼ miles over the turf in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) on the close of the spring meet.  The only thing that's missing is an entry from Japan.

 

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

 

All the colts have seen graded stakes competition before and either won or were in the money, making for a tough analysis of the race and pace. Because of that, I chose to use three criteria to make selections.

1. Stamina and breeding - find the best of the best and give a plus to those that have proven their ability to stay.

2. Running style based on how the pace is expected to play out. In this case, a moderate pace is expected, and closers might have a rough time in the stretch.

3. And those who've been over the course get a plus.

Given the above, the 13 - Stone Age has shown his ability to go the distance on the lawn. He likes the front and stays, pulling away two furlongs from home in his last win.

10 - Nations Pride has also gone the distance while tracking off a leader finishing with a furious pace. Hard to argue with these two on top, given their experience, running style, and connections. They only lack a trip over Belmont's inner turf, but their breeding is all about turf racing. 

Now are those who best suit the course and have done well at a distance. There are three colts who have the breeding to go longer with running styles that should play well here.

3 - Napoleonic War, 11 – Emmanuel, and 12 - Limited Liability were the top three finishers in the Pinnine Ridge Stakes in early June.

Emmanuel is a front runner and was dragging the others along at a pedestrian pace but forestalled any chance for deep closers to win.

But Limited Liability, who ran in the back, was able to muster a closing kick despite the pace, making up 9 lengths to lose by one and a half.  

7 - Sy Dog and 9 - Tiz the Bomb also have some of the factors above and could impact the outcome and have to be considered in the exotics.  

Handigambling $100

$1 Trifecta - 10, 13 with 10, 13, 3, 11, 12 with 10, 13, 3, 11, 12, 7, 9   = $40

 $2 Exacta - 10, 13 with 3, 11, 12, 7, 9,  = $20

 $1 Exacta - 3, 11, 12, 7, 9 with 10, 13  = $10

 $20 Win 13

 $10 Win 10