Value Plays in the Stephen Foster
By: The Turk
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 14th year of providing good handicaps and terrible blogging to people who never asked for it, and Happy July 4th Weekend.
I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for inviting me to handicap my annual start to summer racing, The Stephen Foster Handicap G2.
Poor Stephen Foster. He wrote some of the most memorable songs in Americana, including Camptown Races, Oh Susanna and My Old Kentucky home, yet he died penniless at age 37 after smashing his head into a chamber pot as he passed out from a high fever. We remember him each year for this race, and his songs are forever ingrained into people of my generation and before me, you know, when kids use to play outside and frolicked in the summer before electronics and social media.
It's a seven horse field, the weather looks to be wet, and the track conditions at least on Friday were Fast but check here Saturday.
Let’s get one thing straight: I'm unhappy with Churchill Downs Inc, how they have sabotaged Illinois racing, and their forcing the sale of Arlington International Racetrack. I loved Arlington, I will always love Arlington and I will never forgive the suits at CDI for putting their own interests ahead of everything else. Arlington was a beautiful and modern facility, in a sport that doesn't really have beautiful and modern facilities. Its turf course was the best in North America.
I'm done gripping, but this is exhibit A why horse racing is failing and will continue to fail, a lack of a cohesive strategy to grow the sport and track owners placing their interests over the heath of the sport.
While I said I don't like seven horse fields, at least this field has some consistency and potentially could make for an interesting outcome. Let's get after it!
Haskell Stakes G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. I don't generally look at video more than 3 months old, but the quality of Mandaloun really shines.
Alysheba Stakes G2: 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt. Watch Mott's VERY game Olympiad on Kentucky Derby Day.
Blame Stakes $198K: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. Americanrevolution a heavily bet 4th and just looked empty in the stretch.
Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. Dallas Stewart Trained Last Samuri , D,Wayne Lukas is his new conditioner.
I think it's a bettor’s race.
My instincts tell me that Mandaloun deserves the 2-1 ML. 6 of 10 Lifetime wins, 2 wins at distance, 5 wins in 9 fast dirt starts, 2 of 2 in the money at CD and Brad Cox Trainer, 28% off the layoff, 28% dirt winner and 26% graded stakes wins. I don't like first time returning horses from overseas, but he has been training at increasing distances at CD since late May.
One play is to single him and play a few value horses in the exacta, something like a 6 - (1, and 7), with Caddo River and Last Samuri providing some sizzle.
Alternatively, toss Mandaloun and play Olympiad to win with those value runners on the exacta.
Mott's the master at bringing horses into good spots, and Olympiad is 4 wins in 4 starts in 2022, 6 wins in 9 Fast Dirt Starts, and a last start win in the Alysheba G2 here at 1 1/16 miles.
Olympiad will press the pace. 3 (1,7) exacta. Finally, you could play 6-3- (2-1-7) a $2 Trifecta for $6.
You could play with some combinations of Place and Show, you get the idea.
These are fun races to bet.
Be patient, focus on the tote board odds, don't be emotional about the horses themselves. Slot them, Value them, Bet Them, pray they all finish safe.
Have fun friends,
Turk Out.
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