The $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby is
the final Grade 1 event strictly for 3-year-olds.
Since 2010, only three Pennsylvania
Derby winners have hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Classic, although Morning
Line (2010) was second in the Dirt Mile.
This year, fans are hoping for another
showdown between the Haskell (G1) top finishers Cyberknife and Taiba.
A field of eleven will contest the 1
1/8-mile event. The Pennsylvania Derby is billed as race 12 of the 13-race card,
and post time is 6:10 p.m.
Let's take a look at the top
contenders.
Taiba (5-2) has been brilliant in every
start except the Kentucky Derby (G1), which was too much too soon. He missed
the Haskell (G1) victory by a head in his first start since rejoining the
Baffert Barn and only his second time traveling. This colt is still learning,
and he can turn the tables on Cyberknife with a better trip.
Cyberknife (3-1) has won or placed in eight of
ten-lifetime starts, including a "best of the rest" finish in the
Travers (G1) behind Epicenter. The seasoned veteran has won or placed at six
different tracks and has raced almost every month since last September.
Practically unheard of for modern-day stakes horses. The Brad Cox trainee will
be tough to beat.
Zandon (5-1) has a win, two seconds, and a
third in four attempts at 1 1/8 miles. He also finished just a nose behind
Cyberknife in the Travers. Zandon has tactical speed; he can press the pace or
close from last and has never finished off the board. The Chad Brown trainee can
pull the upset if Taiba and Cyberknife knock each other out.
Tawny Port (6-1) is a legitimate Grade 3-type. He won the Ohio
Derby and Lexington Stakes but has finished behind Zandon three times. He'll
need to improve to beat the top three but is capable of a lower exotics spot.
White Abarrio (8-1) was the big horse at Gulfstream Park last
winter. After his 20-length defeat in the Kentucky Derby, he's managed a second
place finish against Grade 3 company, and had no answer in the Haskell, bested
34 lengths by Cyberknife after a wide trip. He'll get another wide trip here,
and I predict a similar result.
Skippylongstocking
(10-1) improved over the summer and earned his first
graded stakes trophy in the West Virginia Derby (G3). He's finished ahead of We
the People twice and Simplification once. Not a top-ranked horse, but capable
of hitting the board.
Simplification (10-1) was at the top of his game in Florida's
triple crown preps, and he surprised with a four-place finish in the Kentucky
Derby. His speed ratings are average, and he runs his race; however, many of
the horses he's competed against are improving while he's stayed the same.
Additionally, 1 1/8 miles is a touch too far for the son of Not This Time.
We the People (12-1) had his moment of glory in the Peter Pan
(G3), beating a poor field by ten lengths. However, since then, the
free-running pacesetter hasn't been able to hold off the likes of Cyberknife
and Skippylongstocking.
Naval Aviator (20-1) has hit the board in five of seven races
against claiming and allowance types. Tapit's son takes a considerable class
hike, although his speed figures fit. He might be worth a longshot wildcard
play for exotics.
B Dawk (20-1) and Icy Storm (30-1) are allowance
types and would have to run a lifetime best to hit the board.
Analysis
We the People may try to set a soft pace but may be hounded
by longshots B Dawk, Icy Storm, and possibly Skippylongstocking.
However, Cyberknife and Taiba won't be too far off the pace, and
Mike Smith and Florent Geroux will keep an eye on each other.
I'm giving the nod to Taiba this time
around. He's lightly raced and still learning. Zandon and Tawny Port could fill
out the exotics.
8. Taiba (5-2)
5. Cyberknife (3-1)
1. Zandon (5-1)
7. Tawny Port (6-1)
