Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

 Top Contenders for the Pennsylvania Derby

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate), ThoroFan Handicapper

Not often do you see Grade 1 and Parx Racetrack in the same sentence, but this weekend, the Grade 1 betPARX Pennsylvania Derby for 3-year-olds will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. 

The $1 million race attracted a field of 11, including the Preakness Stakes hero Seize the Grey, Santa Anita Derby (G1) victor Stronghold, and a trio of Grade 3 winners.

 

Carded as race 13 of 14, the Pennsylvania Derby post time is 6:10 PM ET.

Let’s review our top picks.

Here is who we like:

After winning the Preakness Stakes, Seize the Grey (5-1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas, finished seventh in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and then fourth in the Jim Dandy Stakes on the Same Saratoga Surface. D. Wayne claims he did not like the Saratoga dirt surface so maybe the change in tracks will do the trick. Jaime Torres gets the mount for the fourth straight race. It looks like there is a lot of early speed, so I expect Seize the Grey to sit just off the pace. If he can bounce back and run his Preakness race, he wins this.

Dragoon Guard (9-5), trained by Brad Cox, has done nothing wrong in his short racing career, with four wins and a second out of 5 starts. He has plenty of speed, and I expect Florent Geroux to put him on the lead right away. The problem is, with four or five other speed horses in this race, will Dragoon Guard be there at the end? He enters this race, coming off an impressive start to finish 1st in the West Virginia Derby.

Uncle Heavy (15-1), trained by Robert Reid Jr., has experience running at Parx with four races and two wins. He has not done much lately but won an impressive Withers Stakes in February. The speed in this race might set Uncle Heavy up nicely to complement his nice late kick. Jockey Mychel Sanchez knows the Horse, having ridden him six times, and knows the track. Definitely consider for your exotics.

At 8-1, Unmatched Wisdom is also worth a look. One of the other early speed horses, this late bloomer didn’t make his first start till May but won first time out and followed up with two wins before a rough trip in the Travers Stakes, finishing 7th. Flavien Prat was on him for all three wins and is on board for the Chad Brown-trained colt. He had a nice speed figure in a winning effort over 1 1/8 in the Curlin Stakes. Seems the distance will suit him just fine. 

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be super-fast, with five or so speed horses setting the early pace. We think Seize the Grey will be sitting just off the pace, and Jaime Torres will make his move at the final turn, nipping Unmatched Wisdom and Dragoon Guard. With his late kick, Uncle Heavy can clunk up for third or fourth. As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Handigambling

Bets: $100 budget

$50 win Seize the grey

$2 Trifecta Box: Seize the Grey, Dragoon Guard, Unmatched Wisdom, Uncle Heavy (total bet $48)

$2 place: Uncle Heavy

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Haskell Stakes (G1)

Haskell Stakes a Handicapping Challenge

 By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-off

The Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes is the feature race of the meet at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. The 1 1/8-mile races always draws an intriguing field, a mix of the most class-proven horses in the sophomore class as well as some horses who may have bloomed a little too late to make the Triple Crown series but who carry with them hopes of joining the upper echelon during the summer season.

 

The spoils are rich: not only does it offer one of the best purses of the year, but the race offers a Win and You’re In berth to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It is the only race restricted to three-year-olds that awards a berth to the Classic.

The Haskell's history dates back to 1968 when it was called the Monmouth Invitational Handicap. When American stakes began to be graded in 1973, it was already an important enough race that it was given a top-level designation from that very first year, and it has never been demoted from that status. The race was renamed for former track chairman Amory Haskell in 1981.

The winner’s list of the Haskell reads as a who’s who of top sophomores over the years, and its importance has only risen in the 21^st century. Five Haskell winners have gone on to Horse of the Year honors: Holy Bull (1994), Point Given (2001), Rachel Alexandra (2009), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020). Other three-year-old champions to win the race include Wajima (1975), Serena’s Song (1995), Skip Away (1996), War Emblem (2002), Big Brown (2008), and Lookin at Lucky (2010).

Let’s review this year’s field.

The Haskell is an interesting betting race because several horses expected to take money have great reasons for bettors to stand against them. Fierceness, the joint 5-2 second choice on the morning line, always takes money but also under performs when he doesn’t get things his own way. The fact that his connections have remained on the fence all week about whether he will actually run is not a good sign, and neither is the fact that he’s drawn in between speed yet again.

Dornoch, the Belmont Stakes winner, is also one to show some skepticism toward. He is more appealing than Fierceness only because he has shown the grit to keep battling on when things get tough down the lane, something he’ll have to do if he gets his customary spot on or near the lead. However, in a race with so much speed, it pays to be skeptical of a must-be-forward type like him, especially since he is mired on the fence.

Okay, enough about who not to bet. As for horses to play? Let’s begin with Timberlake. Timberlake may have run under form in the Arkansas Derby (G1) when last seen, but he has freshened up three and a half months since. That’s the same kind of freshening the Brad Cox trainee got into the Rebel. He has the tactical speed that plays so well at Monmouth and he has some back races that fit in well with this horse speed-wise. He is also interesting to try again at this distance: after all, Into Mischief foals can get longer distances if there’s enough in the dam side to support it, and his dam won going as long as 1 ¾ miles. So, there are plenty of reasons to give him a mulligan for the Arkansas Derby with so many other horses taking money.

Mindframe is the morning-line favorite. Even though he still cedes experience to all of his foes, his graded-stakes debut was a quality second behind Dornoch in the Belmont Stakes. Now he turns back a furlong from this year’s Belmont distance. He drew a better post than he did for the Belmont, and he drew relatively-speaking better than Dornoch, the horse who beat him last out, who is now mired inside. Expect Mindframe to get a clean outside stalking trip and be involved start to finish.

Todd Pletcher brings three to the 2024 Haskell Stakes. We’ve talked about Fierceness, we’ve talked about Mindframe...but his third, Tuscan Sky, also belongs in the mix. Though he was well beaten in his graded-stakes debut in the Wood (G2) back in April, he was one of many horses in that race who had trouble in the lane after a horse fell. Tuscan Sky freshened up a little over two months, returned in the Pegasus, and showed that Monmouth fits him very well indeed. He disputed the pace early and cleared off to win by 6 ¾ lengths. It wasn’t the deepest field, but second-place Domestic Product went on to romp in the Dwyer (G3), winning it easily enough to make Tuscan Sky’s facile win over him in the Pegasus look very nice indeed. Any improvement second off the lay makes Tuscan Sky a contender.

Selections:

#4 Timberlake (8-1)

#7 Mindframe (9-5)

#3 Tuscan Sky (9-2)

 

Longshot: The field for the Haskell is stratified, with five major players and three definite longshots, all of whom have a lot to prove in order to hang with proven graded-stakes horses.

Among them, however, it is #8 Sea Streak (20-1) who has the most upside. He romped two back in the Long Branch, a local prep for the Pegasus. He did so in stalk-and-pounce fashion. However, he regressed in the Pegasus, getting embroiled in a much more hotly contested pace scenario and fading out of it late. If that was just a regression off the Long Branch and he can get going in the right direction again this time around, and jockey Jairo Rendon can get him a clean trip in range of the pace, he could do well enough to run on for a piece of the exotics.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Cyberknife and Taiba renew rivalry in Pennsylvania Derby

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby is the final Grade 1 event strictly for 3-year-olds.

Since 2010, only three Pennsylvania Derby winners have hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Classic, although Morning Line (2010) was second in the Dirt Mile.

 

 This year, fans are hoping for another showdown between the Haskell (G1) top finishers Cyberknife and Taiba.  

A field of eleven will contest the 1 1/8-mile event. The Pennsylvania Derby is billed as race 12 of the 13-race card, and post time is 6:10 p.m.

Let's take a look at the top contenders.

 

Taiba (5-2) has been brilliant in every start except the Kentucky Derby (G1), which was too much too soon. He missed the Haskell (G1) victory by a head in his first start since rejoining the Baffert Barn and only his second time traveling. This colt is still learning, and he can turn the tables on Cyberknife with a better trip.

 

Cyberknife (3-1) has won or placed in eight of ten-lifetime starts, including a "best of the rest" finish in the Travers (G1) behind Epicenter. The seasoned veteran has won or placed at six different tracks and has raced almost every month since last September. Practically unheard of for modern-day stakes horses. The Brad Cox trainee will be tough to beat.

 

Zandon (5-1) has a win, two seconds, and a third in four attempts at 1 1/8 miles. He also finished just a nose behind Cyberknife in the Travers. Zandon has tactical speed; he can press the pace or close from last and has never finished off the board. The Chad Brown trainee can pull the upset if Taiba and Cyberknife knock each other out.

 

Tawny Port (6-1) is a legitimate Grade 3-type. He won the Ohio Derby and Lexington Stakes but has finished behind Zandon three times. He'll need to improve to beat the top three but is capable of a lower exotics spot.

 

White Abarrio (8-1) was the big horse at Gulfstream Park last winter. After his 20-length defeat in the Kentucky Derby, he's managed a second place finish against Grade 3 company, and had no answer in the Haskell, bested 34 lengths by Cyberknife after a wide trip. He'll get another wide trip here, and I predict a similar result.

Skippylongstocking (10-1) improved over the summer and earned his first graded stakes trophy in the West Virginia Derby (G3). He's finished ahead of We the People twice and Simplification once. Not a top-ranked horse, but capable of hitting the board.

 

Simplification (10-1) was at the top of his game in Florida's triple crown preps, and he surprised with a four-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. His speed ratings are average, and he runs his race; however, many of the horses he's competed against are improving while he's stayed the same. Additionally, 1 1/8 miles is a touch too far for the son of Not This Time.

 

We the People (12-1) had his moment of glory in the Peter Pan (G3), beating a poor field by ten lengths. However, since then, the free-running pacesetter hasn't been able to hold off the likes of Cyberknife and Skippylongstocking.

 

Naval Aviator (20-1) has hit the board in five of seven races against claiming and allowance types. Tapit's son takes a considerable class hike, although his speed figures fit. He might be worth a longshot wildcard play for exotics.

 

B Dawk (20-1) and Icy Storm (30-1) are allowance types and would have to run a lifetime best to hit the board.

 

Analysis

We the People may try to set a soft pace but may be hounded by longshots B Dawk, Icy Storm, and possibly Skippylongstocking. However, Cyberknife and Taiba won't be too far off the pace, and Mike Smith and Florent Geroux will keep an eye on each other.

I'm giving the nod to Taiba this time around. He's lightly raced and still learning. Zandon and Tawny Port could fill out the exotics.

 

8. Taiba (5-2)

5. Cyberknife (3-1)

1. Zandon (5-1)

7. Tawny Port (6-1)