Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Haskell Stakes (G1)

Haskell Stakes a Handicapping Challenge

 By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-off

The Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes is the feature race of the meet at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. The 1 1/8-mile races always draws an intriguing field, a mix of the most class-proven horses in the sophomore class as well as some horses who may have bloomed a little too late to make the Triple Crown series but who carry with them hopes of joining the upper echelon during the summer season.

 

The spoils are rich: not only does it offer one of the best purses of the year, but the race offers a Win and You’re In berth to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It is the only race restricted to three-year-olds that awards a berth to the Classic.

The Haskell's history dates back to 1968 when it was called the Monmouth Invitational Handicap. When American stakes began to be graded in 1973, it was already an important enough race that it was given a top-level designation from that very first year, and it has never been demoted from that status. The race was renamed for former track chairman Amory Haskell in 1981.

The winner’s list of the Haskell reads as a who’s who of top sophomores over the years, and its importance has only risen in the 21^st century. Five Haskell winners have gone on to Horse of the Year honors: Holy Bull (1994), Point Given (2001), Rachel Alexandra (2009), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020). Other three-year-old champions to win the race include Wajima (1975), Serena’s Song (1995), Skip Away (1996), War Emblem (2002), Big Brown (2008), and Lookin at Lucky (2010).

Let’s review this year’s field.

The Haskell is an interesting betting race because several horses expected to take money have great reasons for bettors to stand against them. Fierceness, the joint 5-2 second choice on the morning line, always takes money but also under performs when he doesn’t get things his own way. The fact that his connections have remained on the fence all week about whether he will actually run is not a good sign, and neither is the fact that he’s drawn in between speed yet again.

Dornoch, the Belmont Stakes winner, is also one to show some skepticism toward. He is more appealing than Fierceness only because he has shown the grit to keep battling on when things get tough down the lane, something he’ll have to do if he gets his customary spot on or near the lead. However, in a race with so much speed, it pays to be skeptical of a must-be-forward type like him, especially since he is mired on the fence.

Okay, enough about who not to bet. As for horses to play? Let’s begin with Timberlake. Timberlake may have run under form in the Arkansas Derby (G1) when last seen, but he has freshened up three and a half months since. That’s the same kind of freshening the Brad Cox trainee got into the Rebel. He has the tactical speed that plays so well at Monmouth and he has some back races that fit in well with this horse speed-wise. He is also interesting to try again at this distance: after all, Into Mischief foals can get longer distances if there’s enough in the dam side to support it, and his dam won going as long as 1 ¾ miles. So, there are plenty of reasons to give him a mulligan for the Arkansas Derby with so many other horses taking money.

Mindframe is the morning-line favorite. Even though he still cedes experience to all of his foes, his graded-stakes debut was a quality second behind Dornoch in the Belmont Stakes. Now he turns back a furlong from this year’s Belmont distance. He drew a better post than he did for the Belmont, and he drew relatively-speaking better than Dornoch, the horse who beat him last out, who is now mired inside. Expect Mindframe to get a clean outside stalking trip and be involved start to finish.

Todd Pletcher brings three to the 2024 Haskell Stakes. We’ve talked about Fierceness, we’ve talked about Mindframe...but his third, Tuscan Sky, also belongs in the mix. Though he was well beaten in his graded-stakes debut in the Wood (G2) back in April, he was one of many horses in that race who had trouble in the lane after a horse fell. Tuscan Sky freshened up a little over two months, returned in the Pegasus, and showed that Monmouth fits him very well indeed. He disputed the pace early and cleared off to win by 6 ¾ lengths. It wasn’t the deepest field, but second-place Domestic Product went on to romp in the Dwyer (G3), winning it easily enough to make Tuscan Sky’s facile win over him in the Pegasus look very nice indeed. Any improvement second off the lay makes Tuscan Sky a contender.

Selections:

#4 Timberlake (8-1)

#7 Mindframe (9-5)

#3 Tuscan Sky (9-2)

 

Longshot: The field for the Haskell is stratified, with five major players and three definite longshots, all of whom have a lot to prove in order to hang with proven graded-stakes horses.

Among them, however, it is #8 Sea Streak (20-1) who has the most upside. He romped two back in the Long Branch, a local prep for the Pegasus. He did so in stalk-and-pounce fashion. However, he regressed in the Pegasus, getting embroiled in a much more hotly contested pace scenario and fading out of it late. If that was just a regression off the Long Branch and he can get going in the right direction again this time around, and jockey Jairo Rendon can get him a clean trip in range of the pace, he could do well enough to run on for a piece of the exotics.