Handicaper's Corner: 2024 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

 Five line up in Belmont Derby Invitational

By: Robert Marks (X: @theyreinthegate)

As we anticipate opening Day at Saratoga this coming Thursday, we say goodbye to the Belmont at the Big A spring season with the final weekend of racing there. 

The feature race will be the Grade 1 $750,000 Belmont Derby for 3-year-olds at 1 3/16 mile on the turf.

 

Here is a look at the short 5-horse field.

 Here are the horses we will be focusing on:

Trikari (7-2) for Trainer H Graham Motion with Johnny Velazquez on board. Except for his debut, this horse has always hit the board and comes into this race in good form. Should be out in the lead and set the pace. Johnny V is the jock you want when you are on the lead, especially in a short field. Johnny V takes over for Jockey Rispoli, who rode him the last three times. This, in our opinion, is a jockey upgrade, especially pace-wise. This horse is bred for the turf, out of sire Oscar Performance. Bettors may shy away due to his last out 3^rd place finish in the Penn Mile, but he lost by only a neck and never quit. When compared to the morning line favorite of Endlessly, I think Trikari is better suited for the turf surface.   

Endlessly (6-5) is your morning line favorite. We shy away from these types of horses who will give you no value in a 5-horse short field. He does have three wins out of 4 outings on the turf. He was last seen in the Kentucky Derby on the Dirt surface, where he finished 9^th, moving up a bit after running the 1^st half of the race stuck inside in the back of the back. Not sure if this is a dirt horse or a turf horse, but he is by Oscar Performance, an excellent turf sire. Has to be respected on talent, but hasn’t raced in 2 months. Umberto Rispoli is on board for Trainer Michael McCarthy.

Royal Majesty at 6-1 is the Wildcard here. This is our value play. Will be ridden by Junior Alvarado and trained by Bill Mott. This colt will be coming from off the pace. He will need to step up, lightly raced with five-lifetime starts and two wins on the turf. Trainer Bill Mott has a 21%-win rate in Graded Stakes. Junior Alvarado will be on board. Comes off two races at a 1 1/16 in distance, and I think he will like the additional distance here. Comes off a sharp workout last week. Looks like Mott has him primed for a big performance. 

 

Analysis

Short fields are tough-let’s hope the weather stays dry, and there are no scratches. 

I’ll keep Endlessly in my Trifecta box bet but will place Win and Place bets on Trikari and Royal Majesty. 

Look for Johnny V to go right to the lead with Trikari and just hold off Royal Majesty making a bid late. As always, check out how the horses look in the Post Parade, watch the tote board, and adjust accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Trikari

$2Trifecta Box: Trikari, Royal Majesty, Endlessly (total bet $48)

$2 place: Royal Majesty