Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup (G2)

 Who will go the distance in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup?

By: The Turk, ThoroFan Handicapper

Kentucky Downs from above

 Welcome to The Turk Blog, started in 2008 and now with over 725 postings.  The Turk Blog specializes in turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I appreciate The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner, for allowing me an opportunity to share my writing with you today.  

As a fan of turf racing, and with the death of Arlington International, Kentucky Downs became my favorite track and boutique meet of the year.  I wish I could say I was good at either handicapping the races there, or building better constructions, but that is part of the charm at Kentucky Downs, the races are hard to predict, its difficult to know which horses will take to the quirky track, and the sample sizes of horses running on the track itself are very small.  

What is it about Kentucky Downs? It is a unique racetrack located in Franklin, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border. Known for its European-style turf course, the track stands out in the American horse racing landscape due to its undulating, irregularly shaped layout, which differs from the traditional oval tracks seen across the United States. Founded in 1990, Kentucky Downs is built on the historic site of the old Dueling Grounds, adding a layer of history to its modern-day horse racing activities.

The track hosts some of the richest turf races in North America, despite offering a short annual meet. Its premier event and the focus of today, The Kentucky Turf Cup G2, attracts top-quality horses and trainers.  Kentucky Downs has gained a reputation for offering large purses like this race $2.0 MM, largely due to its successful historical horse racing (HHR) machines, which operate year-round. These gaming machines have boosted the track's revenue, allowing it to increase race day payouts and enhance its appeal to the racing community.

Kentucky Downs emphasis on both historic tradition and modern gaming has helped the venue carve out a special niche in the racing industry.

So what were the The Dueling Grounds of Kentucky? Located near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, the dueling grounds hold a unique place in American history. Known as the "Spanish Main," this area served as a notorious site for duels in the 19th century. Due to the strict laws against dueling, this location, just outside state jurisdiction, became a favored spot for those seeking to resolve personal disputes through "honorable combat."

The Dueling Grounds gained infamy for high-profile duels, particularly during the early 1800s, including the fatal duel in 1826 between U.S. Congressman John Randolph and Henry Clay, a prominent American statesman and future presidential candidate. Though the duel ended without bloodshed, it underscored the site’s role in shaping political and personal conflicts of the time. Duels,  dangerous and deadly, were also a socially accepted method for defending one’s honor in certain circles. By the mid-19th century, dueling fell out of favor, and the Dueling Grounds eventually faded into history.

In 2014, National Geographic found evidence of spent casings and lead bullet fragments, confirming the exact location of the duels. To this day, Kentucky is the only state requiring office holders to swear to uphold that they have never dueled or challenged anyone to a duel.  

Enough Turk, get on with it! 

The weather should be dry and the track firm.  The track website is pretty barebones but you can find scratches and changes and track surface info here.  

$2.0 MM Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Grade 2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Just a few relevant videos, but at 1 1/2 miles, don't put too much into these.  

 4 August 2024 EIP; Turf Cup Preview $299K; 1 1/4 Miles firm turf.  Highway Robber/1; King Curlin/6; Anglophile/9

11 August 2024 CNL; Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Integration/2; Sugoi/5

20 July 2024 MTH; United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf.  Get Smokin/4; Tawny Port/7; Grand Sonata/10

So what should you do with all this?  First, check for scratches and changes.  There were none when I wrote this on Thursday evening.  Next, hold your bets and watch that tote board leading up to post time.  Finally, have fun.  It's Kentucky Downs, anything can happen.  If I choose to bet I will look at an exacta with Integration/2 above Get Smokin/4, Tawny Point/7, Anglophile/9, Sugoi/5 and Highway Robber/1, a $10 Bet and alternatively, I'd drop Integration and $2 box 4-7-9-5-1 for $40.  Both are pricey and big gambles but the handle will be big and its worth stretching.  

Have fun,  Turk Out!

Handicaper's Corner: 2024 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

 Five line up in Belmont Derby Invitational

By: Robert Marks (X: @theyreinthegate)

As we anticipate opening Day at Saratoga this coming Thursday, we say goodbye to the Belmont at the Big A spring season with the final weekend of racing there. 

The feature race will be the Grade 1 $750,000 Belmont Derby for 3-year-olds at 1 3/16 mile on the turf.

 

Here is a look at the short 5-horse field.

 Here are the horses we will be focusing on:

Trikari (7-2) for Trainer H Graham Motion with Johnny Velazquez on board. Except for his debut, this horse has always hit the board and comes into this race in good form. Should be out in the lead and set the pace. Johnny V is the jock you want when you are on the lead, especially in a short field. Johnny V takes over for Jockey Rispoli, who rode him the last three times. This, in our opinion, is a jockey upgrade, especially pace-wise. This horse is bred for the turf, out of sire Oscar Performance. Bettors may shy away due to his last out 3^rd place finish in the Penn Mile, but he lost by only a neck and never quit. When compared to the morning line favorite of Endlessly, I think Trikari is better suited for the turf surface.   

Endlessly (6-5) is your morning line favorite. We shy away from these types of horses who will give you no value in a 5-horse short field. He does have three wins out of 4 outings on the turf. He was last seen in the Kentucky Derby on the Dirt surface, where he finished 9^th, moving up a bit after running the 1^st half of the race stuck inside in the back of the back. Not sure if this is a dirt horse or a turf horse, but he is by Oscar Performance, an excellent turf sire. Has to be respected on talent, but hasn’t raced in 2 months. Umberto Rispoli is on board for Trainer Michael McCarthy.

Royal Majesty at 6-1 is the Wildcard here. This is our value play. Will be ridden by Junior Alvarado and trained by Bill Mott. This colt will be coming from off the pace. He will need to step up, lightly raced with five-lifetime starts and two wins on the turf. Trainer Bill Mott has a 21%-win rate in Graded Stakes. Junior Alvarado will be on board. Comes off two races at a 1 1/16 in distance, and I think he will like the additional distance here. Comes off a sharp workout last week. Looks like Mott has him primed for a big performance. 

 

Analysis

Short fields are tough-let’s hope the weather stays dry, and there are no scratches. 

I’ll keep Endlessly in my Trifecta box bet but will place Win and Place bets on Trikari and Royal Majesty. 

Look for Johnny V to go right to the lead with Trikari and just hold off Royal Majesty making a bid late. As always, check out how the horses look in the Post Parade, watch the tote board, and adjust accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Trikari

$2Trifecta Box: Trikari, Royal Majesty, Endlessly (total bet $48)

$2 place: Royal Majesty

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Man O'War Stakes (G2)

 Turf Routers line up in Man O'War Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Nine horses will travel a mile and 3/8ths over Aqueduct’s turf course this Saturday in search of Grade 2 glory and the winner’s share of the $400k purse. 

The Man o’ War Stakes has always been an early season target for the distance turf runners, and this year’s renewal looks very interesting. 

There is rain forecasted for the days leading up to the weekend, but clear skies are expected on race day. Non-firm turf is anticipated.    

Here's the field: Horse(Trainer/Jockey/M-L)

1. Ohana Honor (C. McGaughey/K. Caramouche/6-1)  It looks like Shug has this 4yo on the improve. As a 3yo, this colt hinted at ability but couldn’t seem to string too many races together. Now, he is on the 3^rd race of his form cycle and coming of a facile Keeneland N2X front running score.    One might expect him to go for the lead again, breaking from the rail with an aggressive rider in Kendrick Caramouche. He doesn’t need the lead to win, so I assume his jock will “play the break” and see what happens to his outside (other speed is signed on). He will need another move forward to compete.

2. Kertez (GB) (C. Clement/J. Rosario/5-1)   Kertez (GB) is a 6yo gelding who made his Stateside debut winning the G2 Pan American on the Florida Derby undercard for trainer Christophe Clement. He out-finished two of his foes today (Tawny Port & Harry Hood) in a blanket finish. Given the fact he is 6 years old and coming from the legendary Andre Fabre yard, I’m not so sure he has any improvement to give us. He is a solid performer and will win some races in the US. Not sure it will be today.

3. So High (GB) (N. Chatterpaul/R.R. Maragh/20-1)  A confirmed front runner who just cleared his N1X condition off the layoff in his 29^th race. His 20-1 morning line seems like an underlay to me, especially with other speed signed on. PASS

4. Harry Hood (M. Hennig/15-1)  Another improving 4yo who may be putting it together. He’s been racing regularly over the winter, with this being his 5^th start in 2024. I get the feeling that “last time was the time” for him when he lost the bob to Kertez at 14-1 in the Pan American. Perhaps he makes another needed step forward today. You’ll get paid if he does, but the waters are a bit deeper here.

5. Tawny Port (C. Clement/I. Ortiz Jr./6-1)  Clement’s other entry keeps leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for another swing. This runner always seems to try hard and would be fun to own. He is two necks away from two G2 scores at Gulfstream this winter, the latter a 3^rd against a few foes today. Perhaps his Eclipse Award-winning jock can work some magic, but my feeling is he will be overbet because  Irad is ALWAYS overbet in NY. 

6. Greek Order (W. Mott/J. Lezcano/15-1)  The first question one might ask about him is, what the heck is he doing in this race after running a mediocre 6^th as the favorite in a Keeneland N2X event? It is a valid question. After all, he was competitive in minor handicaps across the pond but not any Group/Graded events like many of his competitors. But…he is trained by a Hall of Famer in Bill Mott, who doesn’t enter horses to fill races. He is a Juddmonte homebred, a literal breeding juggernaut. He is also a 4yo, so there may be some upside to his form. An intriguing longshot.        

7. Rocket and Roll (N. Chatterpaul/G. Kocakaya/50-1)   Recently claimed for 20k with an ok State-bred allowance turf try five races back. Pass

8. Silver Knott (GB) (C. Appleby/F. Prat/3-1)  “The other Appleby.”  Charlie Appleby, who owned graded turf stakes in the US a few years back, has now sent a string here for the summer. It must be expensive for the Sheiks to keep shipping, right? At any rate, this 4yo has run some bangers Stateside, placing in some Grade 1s dating back to the ’22 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. He is improving. He had a sneaky good effort to end his 3yo year where he was run down by Program Trading and Webslinger, the 1^st and 3^rd place finishers in the Turf Classic last week just before the Derby. Silver Knott (GB) came back to dominate the G2 Elkhorn last month, beating his favored stablemate Bold Act and a solid G2 runner in Missed the Cut. He definitely classes up here and has a big shot.

9. Nations Pride (C. Appleby/L. Dettori/8-5)   “The main Appleby” will go heavily favored here. He has a stellar resume, winning Grade/Group 1 races in Canada, Germany, and the USA, including one over this strip. He got beat by ¾ in the Dubai Turf, which is possibly the best turf race in the world (sorry, Breeder’s Cup). He is faster on Beyers with two triple 100+ numbers. He is faster on TimeformUS as well as Thorograph numbers. One last thing: Frankie Dettori is in the boot. On paper, he is a cinch. But, as handicappers, we need to look for some weaknesses. He is off a layoff (he’s won before off layoffs). This is most likely a prep for The Manhattan, a $ 1 million race on the Belmont Stakes undercard, so he may not be 100%. He projects to get a wide trip breaking on the outside in a 3-turn race. His class most likely overcomes this. Are you willing to take 3/5 on him??

Analysis

This race clearly goes through Charlie Appleby. Nations Pride (IRE) looks like the goods even with some things against him. Silver Knott (GB) is on the improve for sure, and no one would be surprised if he put together a solid campaign. 

The three horses coming out of the Pan American were separated by a neck. If I like one, I must like the others although I’d take Harry Hood having more upside because he is a 4yo. The other two most likely won’t get much better. 

Ohana Honor could catch a flyer from the inside or sit just behind the longshot speeds and get 1^st run on the Appleby runners but they won’t be far behind him and most likely will have better kicks in the stretch. 

Mott’s horse is interesting. I will be looking at the will pays and win odds for clues to see how live he is. My gut is that he’d have to run the race of his life to contend with the two favorites. 

A gun to my head, I’d want Nations Pride (IRE). But there isn’t so I am going to lean on Silver Knott (GB). He has more recency than his stablemate and is improving. I think the morning line of 3-1 is fair. 

Handigambling

Based on $100 wagered:

$40 win #8, Silver Knott (GB). If I get 2-1 in the win pool, I’ll show a small profit. Anything higher is gravy.

$60 straight exacta #8 Silver Knott (GB) over #9 Nation’s Pride (IRE). That exacta is most likely in the 5-1 range and it’s my only chance to make some money is to beat the big favorite. I don’t think two horses will beat him. 

A saver exacta is not for me in this situation. An 9-8 exacta will be way over bet for my taste.    

Good Luck!