Turf Routers line up in Man O'War Stakes
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
The Man o’ War Stakes has always been an early season target for the distance turf runners, and this year’s renewal looks very interesting.
There is rain forecasted for the days leading up to the weekend, but clear skies are expected on race day. Non-firm turf is anticipated.
Here's the field: Horse(Trainer/Jockey/M-L)
2. Kertez (GB) (C. Clement/J. Rosario/5-1) Kertez (GB) is a 6yo gelding who made his Stateside debut winning the G2 Pan American on the Florida Derby undercard for trainer Christophe Clement. He out-finished two of his foes today (Tawny Port & Harry Hood) in a blanket finish. Given the fact he is 6 years old and coming from the legendary Andre Fabre yard, I’m not so sure he has any improvement to give us. He is a solid performer and will win some races in the US. Not sure it will be today.
3. So High (GB) (N. Chatterpaul/R.R. Maragh/20-1) A confirmed front runner who just cleared his N1X condition off the layoff in his 29th race. His 20-1 morning line seems like an underlay to me, especially with other speed signed on. PASS
4. Harry Hood (M. Hennig/15-1) Another improving 4yo who may be putting it together. He’s been racing regularly over the winter, with this being his 5th start in 2024. I get the feeling that “last time was the time” for him when he lost the bob to Kertez at 14-1 in the Pan American. Perhaps he makes another needed step forward today. You’ll get paid if he does, but the waters are a bit deeper here.
5. Tawny Port (C. Clement/I. Ortiz Jr./6-1) Clement’s other entry keeps leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for another swing. This runner always seems to try hard and would be fun to own. He is two necks away from two G2 scores at Gulfstream this winter, the latter a 3rd against a few foes today. Perhaps his Eclipse Award-winning jock can work some magic, but my feeling is he will be overbet because Irad is ALWAYS overbet in NY.
6. Greek Order (W. Mott/J. Lezcano/15-1) The first question one might ask about him is, what the heck is he doing in this race after running a mediocre 6th as the favorite in a Keeneland N2X event? It is a valid question. After all, he was competitive in minor handicaps across the pond but not any Group/Graded events like many of his competitors. But…he is trained by a Hall of Famer in Bill Mott, who doesn’t enter horses to fill races. He is a Juddmonte homebred, a literal breeding juggernaut. He is also a 4yo, so there may be some upside to his form. An intriguing longshot.
7. Rocket and Roll (N. Chatterpaul/G. Kocakaya/50-1) Recently claimed for 20k with an ok State-bred allowance turf try five races back. Pass
8. Silver Knott (GB) (C. Appleby/F. Prat/3-1) “The other Appleby.” Charlie Appleby, who owned graded turf stakes in the US a few years back, has now sent a string here for the summer. It must be expensive for the Sheiks to keep shipping, right? At any rate, this 4yo has run some bangers Stateside, placing in some Grade 1s dating back to the ’22 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. He is improving. He had a sneaky good effort to end his 3yo year where he was run down by Program Trading and Webslinger, the 1st and 3rd place finishers in the Turf Classic last week just before the Derby. Silver Knott (GB) came back to dominate the G2 Elkhorn last month, beating his favored stablemate Bold Act and a solid G2 runner in Missed the Cut. He definitely classes up here and has a big shot.
9. Nations Pride (C. Appleby/L. Dettori/8-5) “The main Appleby” will go heavily favored here. He has a stellar resume, winning Grade/Group 1 races in Canada, Germany, and the USA, including one over this strip. He got beat by ¾ in the Dubai Turf, which is possibly the best turf race in the world (sorry, Breeder’s Cup). He is faster on Beyers with two triple 100+ numbers. He is faster on TimeformUS as well as Thorograph numbers. One last thing: Frankie Dettori is in the boot. On paper, he is a cinch. But, as handicappers, we need to look for some weaknesses. He is off a layoff (he’s won before off layoffs). This is most likely a prep for The Manhattan, a $ 1 million race on the Belmont Stakes undercard, so he may not be 100%. He projects to get a wide trip breaking on the outside in a 3-turn race. His class most likely overcomes this. Are you willing to take 3/5 on him??
Analysis
This race clearly goes through Charlie Appleby. Nations Pride (IRE) looks like the goods even with some things against him. Silver Knott (GB) is on the improve for sure, and no one would be surprised if he put together a solid campaign.
The three horses coming out of the Pan American were separated by a neck. If I like one, I must like the others although I’d take Harry Hood having more upside because he is a 4yo. The other two most likely won’t get much better.
Ohana Honor could catch a flyer from the inside or sit just behind the longshot speeds and get 1st run on the Appleby runners but they won’t be far behind him and most likely will have better kicks in the stretch.
Mott’s horse is interesting. I will be looking at the will pays and win odds for clues to see how live he is. My gut is that he’d have to run the race of his life to contend with the two favorites.
A gun to my head, I’d want Nations Pride (IRE). But there isn’t so I am going to lean on Silver Knott (GB). He has more recency than his stablemate and is improving. I think the morning line of 3-1 is fair.
Handigambling
Based on $100 wagered:
$40 win #8, Silver Knott (GB). If I get 2-1 in the win pool, I’ll show a small profit. Anything higher is gravy.
$60 straight exacta #8 Silver Knott (GB) over #9 Nation’s Pride (IRE). That exacta is most likely in the 5-1 range and it’s my only chance to make some money is to beat the big favorite. I don’t think two horses will beat him.
A saver exacta is not for me in this situation. An 9-8 exacta will be way over bet for my taste.
Good Luck!
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