Top Contenders for the Pennsylvania Derby
By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate), ThoroFan Handicapper
Not often do you see Grade 1 and Parx Racetrack in the same sentence, but this weekend, the Grade 1 betPARX Pennsylvania Derby for 3-year-olds will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt.
The $1 million race attracted a field of 11, including the Preakness Stakes hero Seize the Grey, Santa Anita Derby (G1) victor Stronghold, and a trio of Grade 3 winners.
Carded as race 13 of 14, the Pennsylvania Derby post time is 6:10 PM ET.
Let’s review our top picks.
After winning the Preakness Stakes, Seize the Grey (5-1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas, finished seventh in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and then fourth in the Jim Dandy Stakes on the Same Saratoga Surface. D. Wayne claims he did not like the Saratoga dirt surface so maybe the change in tracks will do the trick. Jaime Torres gets the mount for the fourth straight race. It looks like there is a lot of early speed, so I expect Seize the Grey to sit just off the pace. If he can bounce back and run his Preakness race, he wins this.
Dragoon Guard (9-5), trained by Brad Cox, has done nothing wrong in his short racing career, with four wins and a second out of 5 starts. He has plenty of speed, and I expect Florent Geroux to put him on the lead right away. The problem is, with four or five other speed horses in this race, will Dragoon Guard be there at the end? He enters this race, coming off an impressive start to finish 1st in the West Virginia Derby.
Uncle Heavy (15-1), trained by Robert Reid Jr., has experience running at Parx with four races and two wins. He has not done much lately but won an impressive Withers Stakes in February. The speed in this race might set Uncle Heavy up nicely to complement his nice late kick. Jockey Mychel Sanchez knows the Horse, having ridden him six times, and knows the track. Definitely consider for your exotics.
At 8-1, Unmatched Wisdom is also worth a look. One of the other early speed horses, this late bloomer didn’t make his first start till May but won first time out and followed up with two wins before a rough trip in the Travers Stakes, finishing 7th. Flavien Prat was on him for all three wins and is on board for the Chad Brown-trained colt. He had a nice speed figure in a winning effort over 1 1/8 in the Curlin Stakes. Seems the distance will suit him just fine.
Analysis
This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be super-fast, with five or so speed horses setting the early pace. We think Seize the Grey will be sitting just off the pace, and Jaime Torres will make his move at the final turn, nipping Unmatched Wisdom and Dragoon Guard. With his late kick, Uncle Heavy can clunk up for third or fourth. As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.
Handigambling
Bets: $100 budget
$50 win Seize the grey
$2 Trifecta Box: Seize the Grey, Dragoon Guard, Unmatched Wisdom, Uncle Heavy (total bet $48)
$2 place: Uncle Heavy
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