Handicapper's Corner: 2024 California Crown (G1)

 Crown National in the Crown

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Starting in September with Kentucky Downs weekend, race purses are going up faster than real estate prices in Saratoga Springs. One Million dollars seems to be the new benchmark.

This weekend, the California Crown(GI) race, a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, has seven horses entered running for a share of a $1,000,000 purse.

 

Trainer Bob Baffert holds the record for most wins in the race at 8 with a chance for 9. He has three horses entered this year. Trainer Doug O’Neill is shooting for a repeat with Katonah.

Over the years, the race has had for names –1982, the Goodwood Stakes, 2012, The Awesome Again Stakes, and the California Crown Stakes beginning this year.

As one might expect, the weather in southern California for the race will be a beautiful 87 degrees with a 1% chance of rain for this race over the dirt course.

Here is the field for the 2024 California Crown (GI)

1.   Newgate (Into Mischief) Hasn’t run in 6 months after a poor performance in the Dubai World Cup. He needs to regroup and recover his form and speed from 2023. Pass.

2.   Subsanador (Fortify) This Argentine bred showed possibility in is initial starts. Richard Mandella seems to have him moving in the right direction. Jockey Mike Smith rides him a second time after a nice GIII performance at Monmouth Park in August. Could win, but more likely lower in exotic tickets.

3.   National Treasure ( Quality Road) Retains top jockey Flavian Pratt, who has him in the Winner’s Circle 2 of the 5 times he has ridden him. Great speed and pacesetter in this race at this distance and over a dry track. Five of the seven in the race will be charging after him as the wire approaches. The likely winner.

4.   Katonah (Klimt) Gets a hot jockey and should be tracking the two pacesetters waiting to pounce. He is fast enough and gets weight (4 lbs.) from the likely favorite. O’Neill would love a repeat. Maybe.

5.   Muth (Good Magic) One of the two speeds in the race and two 3-year-olds trying older horses in a grade one race for the first time. One of Baffert’s three entrees. May try to push others to set the race up for National Treasure to pull away in the stretch. Possibility, but at a price.

6.   Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) He has been around and proved his worth with lifetime earnings over $12 million. Good for the distance and worked bullet last Friday for this race. Slower than some of the others. Will the real Senor show up? In the exotics.

7.   Indispensable ( Constitution) Out of hot sire and owned in part by a top racing syndicate, West Point Thoroughbred. Took the 3-year-old nine times to break his maiden at mile at Del Mar. Showed potential finishing second to Muth in the shared Belief at Del Mar in July. Another day.

 Analysis

This appears to be a Baffert race to lose. How he instructs his three riders to run the race will make the difference.

National Treasure holds his best chance if the pace is moderate and he can pull ahead in the lane. Baffert’s other speedster, Muth, may push the pace for National Treasure to take over in the lane. Katonah, for O’Neill, has the running style that could disrupt Baffert’s plans. The rest will be in the mix late.

Here is how they will finish:

3. National Treasure (8-5)

4. Katonah (15-1)

2. Subsanador (5-1)

6. Senor Buscador (6-1)

 Handigamble

$50 to win ---3. National Treasure  = $50.00

$20 Exacta Box ---3. National Treasure and 4. Katonah =$40.00

$.50 Trifecta -----3, 4, 2, with 3, 4, 2; $6 with 3, 4, 2,6 =$ 6.00

Good luck but keep the day job!