On the Warpath Against Pacific Classic Favorites
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
It’s great to see a full field in a G1 race for a change. I applaud all those taking a shot in the Pacific Classic and for the East Coast boys to ship in. Eleven runners will line up in the 1 14/ mile race with many liking the front end.
There are a few closers signed on and the favorite, Knightsbridge, will try and stretch his speed another eight of a mile after a stellar performance that earned a 122 Beyer Speed Figure.
Let’s look at the field:
1. Om N Joy (20-1) She’s a nice mare who will get the distance and will be closing in a speed laden field. I can see her getting a piece.
2. Forged Steel (5-1) His best running is when he makes the lead which didn’t happen in his last, the G2 Suburban. He got rank and never settled when behind runners. If he is to clear today, he’ll need to break and be aggressive. He’ll have to go fast to do so and then keep going. He did that in the Gold Cup in May, but this is a much larger and speedy field.
3. Finger (JPN) (8-1) It would be no surprise a Japanese runner came in and stole a big pot. He seems like another forward type runner but gets in light. Reports say he doesn’t need the lead and may sit a perfect trip. Don’t ignore…
4. Subsandador (ARG) (12-1) His best days are behind him.
5. Malarchuk (10-1) Got trounced by 9.5L in his last by Forged Steel. That again was in May. Best of luck to him.
6. Original Sin (15-1) An interesting long shot. Juan Hernandez rides for Brendan Walsh and east coast trainer and not for any of the hometown boys. His versatile running style can put him in a good spot, he’s beaten Hit Show on the square and the price will be right…
7. Hit Show (6-1) I’d love to own this guy. He just earns and earns ($9.5mill in the bankroll). He’ll be coming forward in the stretch, and his best puts him in the mix. Maybe…
8. British Isles (12-1) I’d have to come up with a lot of excuses for his recent form. Not for me.
9. Navajo Warrior (8-1) I guess we’d call this the acid test for Navajo Warrior. Saffie scratched him out of the Whitney for this (I think) and he’s really come along with progressive speed figures and wins. At first blush he looks like another speedy sort. If you watch his last two races, he went to the lead on a loose rein, got into a good rhythm and went on with it. He can sit a trip and get first run.
10. Full Serrano (ARG) (8-1) His best puts him right there. His Pegasus and Oaklawn Mile efforts were good. In fact, the OP race was great given his horrid start. But he missed the San Diego with a foot issue and comes back at a mile and a quarter off a layoff from an outside post. A tall order.
11. Knightsbridge (5-2) He’s the deserving favorite as that gaudy last race Beyer of 122 sticks out further than his post for this race. If you put your finger over that effort, his other races still make him the favorite. His second place to Nysos in the Met Mile was a solid effort as were his three romps in south Florida. Here is the rub…his best running is on the lead. He is outside plenty of other speed here and hasn’t gone this far. If he clears, he will fly early and have to carry that pace. If he tries to rate, which I think he can, he may be wide around the first turn and then must work a trip from there. At what price are you willing to take to see?
SUMMARY
I’m going against Knightsbridge. If he wins, hats off to him. I just can’t take a short price on a horse coming off a monster effort, shipping, stretching out to his furthest distance who may have to alter his running style to win. If he goes for the lead, it may be suicide. If he takes back, he’s wide.
I am looking at Navajo Warrior to sit the trip. The 8-1 morning line seems fair enough and he needs only to repeat his last 2 efforts to win. I can come up with a few others to hit the board, like Original Sin, Om N Joy and Hit Show. I can see Forged Steel getting brave as well as the Japanese horse, Finger (JPN), to trip out. If the favorite runs out of the money, there may be a nice payoff to be had.
THE BET: (based on $100 wagered)
$40 win Navajo Warrior
$8 exactas Navajo Warrior with Original Sin, Hit Show, Forged Steel
$4 exactas Original Sin, Hit Show, Forged Steel with Navajo Warrior
$2 Trifecta Key Navajo Warrior with Original Sin, Hit Show, Forged Steel, Finger
Here’s to taking a swing! Good luck
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