Seismic Beauty vulnerable favorite in Clement L. Hirsch
Stakes
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Del Mar’s $400,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, a Breeders’ Cup qualifier, attracted a field of nine older fillies and mares that will vie for a spot in the Distaff.
Bob Baffert has won the last three editions of the Clement Hirsch and four of the last six, including last year’s winner #8 Seismic Beauty. She hopes to follow in the hoofprints of Adare Manor, who won back-to-back editions in 2023-2024.
Featured as race 10, the 1 1/16 mile dirt race has a 6:40 PM ET post time.
Let’s review the most likely suspects:
8. Seismic Beauty (5-2) hopes to copy stablemate Adare Manor as a two-time winner of the Clement L. Hirsch. However, she returned off a long layoff to finish a distant third in a four-horse field in the Santa Margarita (G2) behind Om and Joy and Simply Joking, and this Bob Baffert trainee earned an 89 Brisnet rating, one of the lowest of her career. After the race, Baffert stated, “She was fresh and got into a speed duel she wasn’t ready for. She never relaxed. Went too fast early and just emptied out.”
3. Om N Joy (6-1) is back at her happy place. She captured the Fleet Treat Stakes and Torrey Pines (G3) here last year. She had a rocky start to 2016, placing third in the Beholder (G1), and was off the board in two other stakes. In her last start, the Aggie Ordonez trainee sat behind a blistering pace in the Santa Margarita and ran down Simply Joking, earning the field’s best last-race Brisnet figure of 100, despite Kent Desormeaux losing his crop.
Om N Joy proved she can capitalize on that scenario when she sat behind a blistering pace in the Santa Margarita and ran down Simply Joking, earning the field’s best last-race Brisnet figure of 100. She is also 2-for-4 at Del Mar, has finished in the money in all four local starts and fired a bullet :46.20 half-mile here July 19.
6. Simply Joking (5-1) should appreciate the distance cut back; she has two wins and a second-place finish at 1 1/16 miles. She set a sharp pace in the Santa Margarita but couldn’t hold off Om N Joy at the end. Previously, she won the Santa Maria (G3) and her Brisnet speed ratings have improved with her maturity. She’ll have to contend with other speed types but has the class edge.
5. Majestic Oops (9-2) is the most dependable mare in the field. She’s hit the board in 26 of 37 starts, owns three victories at 1 1/16 miles and enters with four consecutive Brisnet ratings between 91 and 98.
Her Shawnee (G3) third was better than it appears. She raced several lengths off a strong pace, launched a five-wide move and was beaten only 3 1/4 lengths by Splendora. Her 94 late-pace figure is the strongest last-out closing number in this field.
9. Eunomia (5-1) ships for Saffie Joseph, Jr. She owns two wins, a second and a third from five starts at 1 1/16 miles, with a career-best 99 Brisnet rating. Two starts ago, she pressed Alpine Princess through moderate fractions in the Doubledogdare (G2), took the lead and lost by only a head while finishing 6 1/2 lengths clear of third. Over the last three years, Joseph’s horses have started five times in California with two wins and a third-place finish; however, both shippers to Del Mar were off the board.
1. Chasten (4-1) ships in for Brad Cox. She is improving and draws the rail, allowing Florent Geroux to secure a ground-saving stalking position behind the pace battle. She won the Obeah by 6 1/4 lengths last time, earning a 96 speed rating.
Her concern is class. She flattened out when fifth in the La Troienne, and this is a much more demanding assignment than the Obeah. Additionally, Race Lens shows that over the last three years, Cox has shipped a dozen horses to California for 14 races, resulting in 2 wins and three in-the-money spots.
Analysis
Seismic Beauty and Simply Joking are confirmed pacesetters and may duel, which will set up the race for an off-the-pace type.
Om N Joy gets the most favorable pace setup. The outside-speed congestion should let Kent Desormeaux save ground from post 3, settle her behind the leaders and make one run. Om N Joy has the best recent performance, proven Del Mar form and the only genuine closer in a speed-heavy field.
Majestic Oops lacks Om N Joy’s explosive recent finish, and Joel Rosario has been winning at a low percentage during the meet, but Majestic Oops should pick up the pieces when the leaders begin backing up.
Eunomia has tactical speed. Unlike Simply Joking and Seismic Beauty, Eunomia does not absolutely need the lead. However, from post 9, she risks being caught wide into the first turn, and her natural speed may pull her closer to the expected pace battle than is ideal.
The shippers Eunomia and Chasten are worth a look for underneath spots if you’re playing the field.
3. Om N Joy (6-1)
8. Seismic Beauty (5-2)
5. Majestic Oops (9-2)
6. Simply Joking (5-1)
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