Looking for good juju in Mother Goose Stakes
Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
The G2 Mother Goose looks to add to its rich history Saturday when it will be contested for the 64th time at beautiful Belmont Park.
This prestigious event, run over the main track at 1 1/16th miles for 3yo fillies, has a list of past winners that are the who’s who in racing. Rachel Alexandra, Serena’s Song, Go for Wand and a little filly named Ruffian lead that list. Many more follow - Davona Dale, Shuvee, Midnight Bisou…you get the point. This is a race that owners and breeders want to win.
This year, a compact field of five will face the starter with an expected post of 4:40pm EST. Weather Forecast: Sunny, Upper 80s, Humid.
Let’s take a look at the field.
1. Shahama (9/5; T. Pletcher; F. Prat) – A winner of her 1st four starts, all in Dubai, this miss was transferred to Todd Pletcher over the winter. Her first stateside attempt was in the Oaks where she made an OK appearance closing for 6th of 14, beaten 5.5 lengths. She will have to improve to make an impact.
2. Venti Valentine (5-1; J. Abreu; J. Ortiz) – Venti took the Ny route to the Oaks winning the listed Busher Invitational in March and running 2nd in the G3 Gazelle in April. Her effort in KY made you wonder if we saw the best of her. She did chase a fast early pace 3 wide. She was in deep water midway around the far turn when she checked badly. Her rider protected her thereafter where she checked in last, 27 lengths behind the winner. She is another that will have to prove she belongs on the list of winners here. I will let her do so without any of my $$$.
3. Midnight Stroll (10-1; J. Terranova; J. Castellano) – This filly started off the year with 2 victories at Tampa, both by open lengths. Off an 8-week layoff she didn’t give a good account of herself in the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico. Yes, she did get bounced around a bit going into the 1st turn. But the reality is that she was fighting above here weight class. She may be doing the same again.
4. Gerrymander (5-1; C. Brown; J. Rosario) – If you follow New York racing at all, it will be no surprise that Chad Brown has an entry in a stakes race for Klaravich Stable. This $375k Into Mischief yearling showed some promise last year running 2nd to the 2yo filly champ in Echo Zulu in the G1 Frizette over this same track. Her comeback race over Derby weekend left a bit to be desired. She got jostled at the start and put her a bit out of position. She made a decent run around the turn only to flatten out late. Chad has a history of sending them over prepared off layoffs. The fact that this one really didn’t fire gives me a bit of pause. She will take money because of the connections but good horses overcome trouble – she didn’t. Chad Brown runners fire off the bench – she didn’t. Perhaps there is a glass half full way to view her, but at her expected price, it looks half empty to me.
5. Juju’s Map (EVEN; B. Cox; F. Geroux) – Never out of the quinella in 5 starts to date, this filly looks like the real deal. She won the G1 Alcibiades last year chasing a fast pace and then separating late from her competition. She also ran 2nd to the champ, Echo Zulu but this was in the Breeder’s Cup. Juju was put away for the winter and didn’t target any of the Spring’s major events. She did show up in a second level allowance race on the Oaks undercard. She disposed of elder rivals with ease. It was a perfect race back where she can build on that effort with an eye on some major targets at Saratoga later in the summer. Beat her to win.
Summary
Juju’s Map will win. She is bigger, stronger and faster than her competition – a trifecta that is hard to beat. She can lead and finish. She can stalk and finish. She is the only G1 winner in the field. She is the only horse that ran well in her prior start.
Of the other four entrants in this field, I ask who I can forgive the most for their prior efforts. Is Shahama better than her Oaks run suggests? Perhaps as her sheet number was he career best.
Did the pace of the Oaks really hurt Venti Valentine? Maybe…other than Echo Zulu, none of the pacesetters were close at the end.
Perhaps Gerrymander’s start in the Eight Belles really did her in and we will see a different horse on Saturday. Oh, and then there is Midnight Stroll’s trouble in her last race. I don’t want a horse beat 13.75 lengths in her last race, do you?
Get your paycheck, mortgage payment and what’s left of your 401k! Juju’s Map all the way baby! Any other horse for 2nd…I would be guessing. I have found that sometimes you must take what the give you instead of trying to create something from a murky data set.
Anywhere close to even money would be a gift on Juju’s Map. Bet to win, take your .50-.80 cents for every dollar you wager.
Buy yourself a beer when they hang up the official sign and turn the page.
No comments:
Post a Comment