Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Salvador Mile (G)

 Hot Rod Charlie kicks off summer in Salvador Mile

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $150,000 Grade 3 Salvador Mile is one of four graded stakes on tap at Monmouth Park on Saturday.

Billed as Race 14, the day’s finale, the dirt race for 3-year-olds and older attracted a filed of seven, including Haskell (G1) hero Hot Rod Charlie.

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

 

Mind Control drops in company after two distant finishes against Grade 1 types. He’s also stretching to a mile, and has finished no worse than second in three starts at the distance. He could be speed on the rail, but will face other forwardly placed types. Mind Control Hasn’t won since last September, and his Brisnet speed ratings have decreased in his last two starts.

 

Mohaafeth had trouble in the Pimlico Special. He had to steady early, and was farther back than usual. It was his first out of the money finish since last September, and this pretty gray gelding can be counted on to bring home a check.

 

Hot Rod Charlie is making his first start since his runner-up finish in the Dubai World Cup. He’ll be tough to beat as the obvious class of the race. Mike Smith will be in the irons, and it’s a good bet that they’ll set the pace. However, the Salvador Mile is just a stepping stone to bigger and better, so it’s doubtful that Hot Rod Charlie will be totally tuned up.

 

The Grade 1 turf miler Shirl's Speight is oddly placed. He’s unplaced on dirt, and I would have expected to see him in one of the two turf events, the Eatonton Stakes at 1 1/16 miles or the Monmouth Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on the undercard.

 

Helium hopes to rise to the winner’s circle after five consecutive runner-up finishes. His last victory was in the 2021 Tampa Bay Derby. Since then, he’s been hanging out with optional claimers at Woodbine.

 

Confessor has hit the board in 10 of 17 starts at a mile, and won his prep here in May. It’s an ambitious placing, as the old warhorse make the second stakes appearance of his career. He usually picks up a check, but only wins if he’s on the pace.

 

The 8-year-old Phat Man is the field’s veteran. He’s lost a step since last year, and was a distant 6-lengh third in an allowance at Delaware in his last start.

 

Analysis

There’s a lot of speed in the Salvador Mile. From a class standpoint, Hot Rod Charlie and Mind Control are the likely top two finishers. Even if he isn’t at his best, Hot Rod Charlie is the one to beat. Draw a line through Mind Control’s last. He was clearly outclassed by the likes of Jackie’s Warrior. He could rebound here and if Charlie isn’t up to hot rodding today, Mind Control is most likely to benefit.

Helium showed some class as a 3-year-old, gets back to the dirt and shortens up. He has tactical speed and can pick up the pieces or even grab second place if one of the top two falter. Confessor’s  speed ratings are going the right way and he gets the nod to round out the superfecta.

 

3. Hot Rod Charlie (4-5)

1. Mind Control (3-1)

5. Helium (8-1)

6. Confessor (30-1)