Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Commonwealth Turf (G3)

 Winning the Commonwealth Turf Stakes with a $100 Bet

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello ThoroFan racing friends, our destination this week is Churchill Downs for the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf for three-year-olds going one mile and one-sixteenth over the grass course.

This year’s edition is the 19^th running of the race and the $300,000 event has attracted a field of nine runners.

 

 Here is how I see it.

1^st Evade – French-bred runner made his U.S. debut going six-and-half furlongs in G1 at Kentucky Downs, where he finished fourth by less than three lengths, beating more than half the field. In his last start at Keeneland, he again finished a close fourth. An improving horse who gets a little more real estate which should help.

2^nd - Herchee – Lightly-raced gelding has landed in the money in all four grass starts over at four different tracks. Last race, he stepped up into the G3 Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland where he led briefly into the stretch, dug in gamely but got caught by an outside challenger, then lost the place spot late.

3^rd - Lagynos – Three races back, he was second beaten a neck in the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. In his last two starts, he lagged behind a slow pace at Kentucky Downs, then caught a swift pace at Keeneland where he tried to rally around the far turn but got caught in traffic before finally getting clear and running on willingly. A smoother trip here could be all he needs.

LS – My Boy Prince - This year’s King’s Plate runner-up has plenty of stake’s experience on turf (as well as synthetic). Last out at Keeneland, he set a blazing pace which eventually caught up with him as he coughed up a comfortable three-length lead and faded to finish ninth. In his prior run in the G1 Woodbine Mile, he was forced out extremely wide and ended up in sixth place. However, he was extremely good in his grass efforts last season, including a third place showing in the G1 B.C. Juvenile Turf. Which version shows up on Saturday remains a mystery, but he has shown enough in his overall record that he can contend on his best day.

Wagering:

With our $100 mythical ThoroFan bucks, we will wager as follows:

$40 win on Evade

$20 Exacta Evade over Lagynos

$15 Exacta Box Evade with Herchee ($30 Total)

$ 5 Exacta Box Evade with My Boy Prince ($10 total)

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!