Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Bob Hope Stakes (G2)

 Is McKinzie Street on the road to Bob Hope Stakes victory?

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

At beautiful Del Mar Racetrack this weekend, we have a small but competitive field of 2-year-olds racing over 7 furlongs on the dirt in the $100,000 Grade 2 Bob Hope Stakes.

First run in 1981, notable winners include  2013 Champion 2-Year-Old Colt Shared Belief, plus Grade 1 winners Afternoon Deelites, Mastery, and Mucho Gusto.

 

Bob Baffert has won seven of the last nine editions of the Bob Hope, including the last three.

The Bob Hope Stakes is featured as race 8 of 9 on Sunday’s card, with a 4:00 PM PT post time.

Here is who we like:

The big favorite is McKinzie Street, at 2-1 morning line odds. He is the most accomplished in this field with two Grade 1 races already run including a second in the Del Mar Futurity, beating Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull. The distance will be no problem as he ran 1 1/16 last time out in the Grade 1 American Pharoah, finishing third in a race won by Citizen Bull. On paper, this is the fastest horse in the field. Pace-wise, he should run mid-pack and has good late pace.

Dr Ruben M (20-1), trained by Doug O’Neil, is interesting. He comes off a Maiden win last time out at Santa Anita at 1 mile, where he won from gate to wire. He is taking a big step up in class off the last Maiden win, but He showed a nice burst of speed around the last turn last time out. I also like the turn back in distance from a mile to 7 furlongs.

Kalea Bay (9-5), trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, also comes off a Maiden win last time out, winning at 6 furlongs at Santa Anita. Before that, he ran twice at Delmar, finishing second and third, respectively, at 6 and 5.5 furlongs. Kalea Bay ran very nice fractions in the Santa Anita race, which will complement him as he races one furlong longer on Sunday. I expect Kalea Bay to be up front early, most likely behind the pacesetter Maximus. He has done nothing wrong in his short racing career, with 4 wins and a second out of 5 starts. Kalea Bay has plenty of speed, and I expect Florent Geroux to put him on the lead immediately. Problem is, with four or five other speed horses in this race, will Kalea Bay be there at the end? He enters this race coming off an impressive start to finish 1st in the West Virginia Derby.

Bullard (8-5), another Baffert horse, has only race once, winning first time out at Del Mar over 6 Furlongs, rallying late to win the race. His sire is Gun Runner, whose babies are winning on racetracks all over North America. He has not raced since his sole race back on Labor Day Weekend, but he had a sharp workout on November ninth at 5 furlongs.

Baffert’s third horse in the race is unraced, Madaket Road (10-1), but he looks like a fast horse sired by Quality Road. It would not shock me if he wins first time out, but we never like to be first-timers in a graded stakes race. Over time, that betting strategy rarely works.

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace wise. It looks to be pretty fast with good early pace. We think Maximus sets the pace with Dr. Ruben M.  with Bullard and Kalea Bay right with him.

McKinzie Street should be sitting mid-pack waiting on the jockey’s decision to move at the final turn.

We will hope to kit a Trifecta, boxing our four highlighted horses. I think McKinsie Street's class will prevail, but maybe Dr. Ruben M. at 20-1 can grab second or third to juice up the payouts.  

As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Handigambling $100 Budget

$50 win McKinzie Street.

$2 Trifecta Box: Mckinzie Street. Dr Ruben M. Bullar, Kalea Bay (total bet $48)

$2 place: Dr. Ruben M.