Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Red Smith Stakes (G2)

 Winning Strategies for the Red Smith Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

My hangover from last weekend’s Breeder’s Cup has finally dissipated, and it’s time to saddle back up for a nice distance turf stake at Aqueduct. The weather has been uncharacteristically dry in Queens this fall leaving a firm course thirsty for rain.

Nine are facing the starter in the $300,000 Grade 2 Red Smith Stakes, including the winner and two others from last year’s renewal. Some of the others entered look like they’ve done so because the opportunities on NY turf are waning. After all, it is November, and it will get cold…I think. But for $300k, why not take a shot?

Carded as race 9 of 10, the 1 3/8 mile Red Smith has a 3:40 PM ET post time. The turf is expected to be firm.

Let’s take a look at the field:

 

1.   Curbstone (T. Morley; J.R. Velazquez 30-1)   An allowance winner on the dirt back in February is winless on the turf. However, he did run 2^nd down at Far Hills in his last. He’d have to improve immensely off of that to contend.   TOSS

2.   Integration (C. McGaughey III; F. Prat 2-1)  A G2 winner over this course has always hinted at top-level ability. Shug has given this 4-year-old colt a steady diet of G1 and G2 assignments all year (save his Arlington Million prep) and he has performed admirably but never won. Integration has 3 triple-digit Beyers on his sheet, and this is a clear class drop.   WIN CONTENDER

3.   Pioneering Spirit (R Dutrow; M. Franco 10-1) Dick Dutrow plopped down $62.5k for this 5yo gelding in his last start. This cagey trainer did so for a reason. After all, he won half his races last year for Linda Rice. But that form seems gone, as he is winless in his last 10 starts. I’m not sure he is G3 quality at the moment. He’s a reach at best for me. TOSS

4.   City Man (C. Clement; J. Rosario 10-1) City Man comes into this event starting only 4 times this year, all in State Bred stakes much shorter than today’s distance. A mile and an eighth seems his limit, but it’s a big purse, and he is out of conditions.   It looks like Clement is throwing a Hail Mary here, and a minor placing is his ceiling. TOSS

5.   Limited Liability (C. McGaughey III; L. Dettori 5-1) These long-distance turf events are a sweet spot for this 5yo gelding. He was 6^th in last year’s renewal but only beaten just under 3 lengths when given a lot to do late. This year, he seems more into his races and ran a lifetime Beyer in his last race. Perhaps adding the blinkers 4 back has helped. WIN CONTENDER

6.   Adhamo (C. Brown; I. Ortiz Jr. 8-1) Like Integration, this new gelding has been competing in graded races of late. He never seems to get there, however, at least since his win in July of ’22. But it’s Chad & Irad.  If you watch any turf racing in NY, you know that just may be enough. USE UNDERNEATH

7.   Daunt (R. Robaudo; JJ Castellano 20-1)  Daunt has yet to clear his N2X condition, only runs on the NY circuit and is looking for a payday. He ran seventh in last year’s edition of this race and fourth the year before. Tall order. TOSS

8.   Master Piece (Chi) (R. Dutrow; J. Lezcano 5-2)  Two for Two over Aqueduct’s turf.  A solid G2 runner. Seems to try hard and has earned almost a cool $ 1 million for his owners. He’d be no surprise at all. After all, he won this race last year at almost 11 to 1. But one won’t get those odds on Saturday. I get the feeling he struggles to polish off his races of late. Perhaps his 8 years on this Earth are catching up with him. WIN CONTENDER

9.   Rebel Red (GB) (C. DeVaux; J. Ortiz 8-1) This Frankel (GB) colt seems progressive, having cleared a few allowance conditions this year running some solid figures.    That said, his numbers are a cut below some of his rivals and he will need to improve those against much tougher company. Cherie seems to know how to do just that with a good horse, and the price may be right. WIN CONTENDER

SUMMARY:    

It looks like the public will bet on both Integration and Master Piece. Each have the speed figures and resume to pick off this race, and neither would be a surprise.   Of the two, Integration may have some more upside since he is a 4-year-old, whereas the 8-year-old Master Piece has shown us what he has. 

The other two contenders are Limited Liability and Rebel Red. I like how the former has gotten into his races with blinkers and ran a big figure in his last. I also like how the latter, Rebel Red, is progressing and even displayed a major closing kick in his last. I think they will be the third and fourth choices and perhaps the fifth in this race. I like that.

 I’ll give an honorable mention to Adhamo on the old “Chad & Irad” angle. But that’s it.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$60 Win Rebel Red  ( I think he will be the longer of he and Limited Liability)

$12 exacta Box Rebel Red/Limited Liability

$8 exacta Reble Red/Integration & Limited Liability