Los Alamitos Futurity Selections and Picks
The 2020 Los Alamitos Futurity a/k/a Cashcall Futurity a/k/a Hollywood
Futurity was downgraded to a Grade 2 this year, but it’s still the last graded
race of the year held for 2-year-old colts.
The top four finishers receive a scale of 10-4-2-1 points towards
inclusion in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. None of the competitors in the 1
1/16-mile event will race on Lasix.
Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the
Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown
races. Six won the Kentucky Derby and
three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Bob Baffert has a stranglehold on
the Bob Baffert Futur…uh, Los Al Futurity. He’s stood in the winners’ circle
for six straight years, completing the exacta three times. Overall, Baffert has sent out the Los Alamitos Futurity winner a dozen times
since 1981. This year, he saddles multiple Grade 1-placed Spielberg.
Let’s
review the field from the rail out.
#1 RED
FLAG (1/1) outclassed the Bob Hope (G3)
field by 7 1/4-lengths, which included Spielberg and Weston. Red Flag was on the
outside of an early cavalry charge of a quartet that included Spielberg and
Weston. Taking command just before the top of the stretch, Red Flag cantered
home under a hand ride. The John Shirreffs trainee should have no difficulty handling two turns. Red Flag is a son of first-crop sire Tamarkuz
(Spightstown), and his half-sister Surrender Now is a stakes-winning sprinter.
#2 PETRUCHIO
(4/1) has shown ability over turf and
dirt. It took him four starts to find the winner’s circle, but now that he’s
figured things out, things, including his Brisnet speed figures, are looking
up. The son of Into Mischief is a first foal. His dam is a full sister to
multiple Grade 3-winning sprinter/miler Matrooth (Distorted Humor), who was
third in 2015 Cigar Mile (G1) and 2018 Stephen Foster (G1). Their half-brother
Rule raced for five years, winning from eight to nine furlongs, including the
G2 Monmouth Cup. Petruchio’s second dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby hero
Funny Cide, who is also by Distorted Humor.
#3 THE
GREAT ONE (15/1) isn’t living up to his
name. He’s the “why” horse of this short field. Nyquist’s son had a fading view
of Weston’s hindquarters two starts back, finishing 13 lengths behind. Last
time out on turf, the Doug O’Neil trainee set moderate fractions, but was
passed late in the stretch. The Great one is out of the veteran mare Little
Miss Protocol, who ruled Louisiana-bred stakes from 2011 – 2014, earning $731,290
in 30 starts.
#4 WESTON
(10/1) beat Dr. Schivel in their debut,
and he won the Best Pal (G2) over a weak field, but was outclassed in the Del
Mar Futurity (G1) by that rival and in the Bob Hope Stakes by (G3) Red Flag.
The Ryan Hanson trainee is a son of first-crop sire Hit it a Bomb, winner of
the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). The stallion’s offspring have only
four wins from 35 starts over dirt. Weston’s dam Elke (Union Rags) is a
multiple stakes-placed sprinter/miler on dirt and turf, and her offspring are
capable over all surfaces. Weston is her first blacktype earner in the U.S; his
half-sister Miss
Segovia is listed placed in Panama. Perhaps Weston will
give turf a try next year.
#5 POSITIVITY
(8/1) has done well against restricted
stakes types. In his first start for Paddy Gallagher and first off the
layoff, this son of Paynter raced in second-place much of the way in the
seven-furlong Golden State Juvenile Stakes, letting the pacesetter get away to
a three-length lead. Positivity picked it up in late stretch to close the gap
by 3/4-length and passed just after the wire. It was an improved effort, speed
figure wise, over previous starts.
Positivity’s second dam Sam’s Sunny Halo, is a restricted stakes-winning
sprinter.
#6 SPIELBERG
(5/2) is Bob Baffert’s million-dollar
baby. He has only one victory in five starts but hit the board in the Del Mar
Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah Stakes (G1). After finding a field of
maidens he could beat, this son of Union Rags didn’t like the pressure of being
between horses in the Bob Hope (G3) and backed up to fourth place. That’s ok,
‘cause he’s shown talent and has classic breeding, meaning he should improve
next year. Spielberg is the first blacktype earner in his immediate family. His
dam Miss Squeal (Smart Strike) is a half-sister to a trio of stakes winners;
2017 Curlin Stakes winner Outplay, Raconteur, winner of the 1-mile Private
Terms Stakes, and Katerburg, a listed-winning turf miler. There’s a ton of
class in Spielberg’s third generation, including Grade 1 winner Clear Mandate,
whose descendants include Grade 1 winner and sire Strong Mandate. Japanese
champion older mare To the Victory and Spinster (G1) heroine Romantic Vision
are part of the family.
Race
Keys
In the
last decade:
·
Favorites have placed
first or second in nine of the last ten editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity.
·
Pace
pressers/setters rule. Two one-run closers were successful.
·
Eight of
the last ten Alamitos Futurity won their last start.
·
Eight of
ten winners were stakes winners or stakes placed in previous starts.
Only three runners fit the profile of previous Los Alamitos Futurity
winners; our even-money favorite Red Flag,
Positivity, who placed second against state-breds, and last-out
maiden winner Petruchio.
All six
colts have a pace press/setter running style, so this is very much a jockey’s
race early. Red Flag has tactical speed, and he’s fast enough to keep from
being blocked on the rail.
Many
may criticize handicapper writers for picking the favorite, yet complain when
they don’t, and the favorite wins. I say, pick the horse you think is best and
go from there.
#1
RED FLAG (1/1)
#5
POSITIVITY (8/1)
#6
SPIELBERG (5/2)
#2
PETRUCHIO (4/1)
Handigambing:
The
term “bridgejumper” in betting means a bettor who places a huge wager on the
low-odds favorite, usually for third place. That $2.10 return won’t net much
unless the bettor is throwing $10,000 or more at the wager, hoping for a $500+
return.
This
kind of bet causes higher than usual show returns on the rest of the field, and
the show pool is higher than the win pool. If the favorite fails to hit the
board, the bridgejumper goes hunting for a bridge to climb over while the
fortunate players who bet the top three finishers are rewarded, sometimes
handsomely.
The
last time I went off a bridge, I was 17 and dove off the seven-mile bridge (the
old one) on the way back from Key West. There was an accident on the two-lane
bridge, and traffic would be tied up for most of the day. It was hot, and in my
defense, the bar on Knight’s Key was calling my name.
But I
digress. If you have money burning a hole in your pocket and think Red Flag can
be beaten (anything can and does happen in a race), toss a few dollars on the
other five horses in the field. You have a 60% chance of cashing in.
