Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Arkansas Derby (G1)

 An Arkansas Encore - The Tour to Louisville Continues

By: Alex Sausville, Off-the-Turf Podcast

As the final weekend of Kentucky Derby points races arrives, the spotlight shifts back to Oaklawn Park, where a group of familiar three-year-olds will offer one more challenge to Concert Tour, another of Bob Baffert’s star contenders for the run for the roses.

 

The Arkansas Derby (G1), a race that in the past would conclude the states “Fifth Season,” is now the center point of a meet that continues its exceptional racing schedule all the way to the first Sunday in May.

 

Following a dominant effort by Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes (G2), the challenges will look very similar in the Arkansas Derby, plus a bump in graded value. With a field of six lined up on Saturday, four of the five challengers came out of last month’s Rebel Stakes, with Last Samurai coming 2nd up out of a 5th place effort in the Southwest. 

This event looks like another low-hanging fruit for the Bob Baffert barn. Despite the injury of 2020 winner Nadal prior to last year’s Kentucky Derby, Baffert's other two winners of the Arkansas Derby include Bodemeister and the great American Pharoah, two horses who performed extremely well during the Triple Crown series.

Prior to the Rebel, the main challenge for Concert Tour was viewed to come at the hands of Smarty Jones Stakes winner, Caddo River. The son of Hard Spun produced a dominant ten length triumph for his first stakes win and came into the Rebel as the narrow favorite over Concert Tour. 

Many believed that the two favorites would go at it from the start and potentially set it up for the late closers waiting in behind, and while they did go head to head early, only Caddo River came back to the field. 

Despite going head to head with Concert Tour at the start, Geroux was able to sit just off down the backstretch to get the trip he wanted. In a bigger field, there would be a much better chance for Caddo River to be able to not use up as much early speed and have someone apply pressure to Concert Tour. However, with such a small field, the only other speed who could make that difference would be if Get Her Number comes back a strong second off the layoff for Peter Miller.

This year’s Arkansas Derby may be Concert Tour’s race to win, but control of the race is a bit of a toss-up. One of the biggest things with seeing a field so familiar with each other is that the tactics most often will change. I will be expecting Concert Tour to face a much stronger challenge upfront, which should be coming from Get Her Number or even Caddo River if they think that is the only chance to challenge for contention. 

If the race works out the way I would hope, my eyes will land on Super Stock, a son of Dialed In who comes in second off the layoff and showed a little late kick in a fourth-place finish in the Rebel. It will be a tough challenge for him to find his way to the winner’s circle in a race controlled by Concert Tour; however I believe that the rest of the field will not follow the definition of insanity, and the Arkansas Derby will be vastly different tactic wise than we saw in the Rebel. If that ends up being the case, Super Stock is a great value play both underneath and to steal the show late.

 

My Bets:

$40 Exacta Box: 1,5

$20 Win - Super Stock

Total: $100

 

Final Thoughts:

The 2021 Arkansas Derby is a race not to get too crazy with. Despite the fact that I believe Super Stock could be great value in this spot, it will take some drastic changes in the race format to see Concert Tour falter. 

Whether Concert Tour is able to run his race or not, I still don’t see him finishing outside of the top two, and am hopeful that if he gets softened up towards that extra 1/16th of a mile, that Super Stock could be the one to sneak by late. Despite some talented horses' efforts, it would take too much of a tactic change from the others in the field who aren’t capable of softening him up for them to be the ones at the line.

Short field or not, the Arkansas Derby continues to be one of the most influential Kentucky Derby prep races on the calendar. The stars come out in full force during the Oaklawn meet and continue to shine as the season progresses. If Concert Tour can continue his winning ways this Saturday, the Baffert trend promises great opportunities with the three main events on the horizon.

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Florida Derby (G1)

 Greatest Honour tries for hat trick in Florida Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan

Welcome back again to South Florida for the final leg of the three-year-olds seasonal prep for the Kentucky Derby. Get your sunscreen and polarized glasses on because it is going to be pushing 87° real feel with some clouds and a breeze. 

Let's check out the contenders.

If you read my last article for the FOY a month ago and took the $3 Trifecta bet, you made about a 50% return when #7 - Greatest Honour did his closing move at 1-1 odds. Will he do it again? I’m pretty confident he’ll be trying in the same fashion. The question is will he get the same setup as last time. There are several contenders who could push a pace that might spoil a late closing type like our FOY hero.

There is a Curlin colt, #5 - Known Agenda, in this group who has beaten Greatest Honour in an $80k maiden going this distance when they were two-year-olds. Known Agenda rand mid-pack for half the race and pulled to the lead, winning by a neck. His next two races were not stellar, with Johnny V up in the slop once and a large crowd in the Sam Davis when holding back, it seems. However, he found his wings, winning by 11 at this distance over Gulfstream’s fast track. He also has the best speed and time at the distance for this group. So who else is a front runner who might sustain the pace and distance?

#1 - Nova Rags was a winner in the Pasco and second in the Sam Davis. The son of Union Rags is built for the distance and has had five steady works with Bill Mott at Payson Park (the Florida version of the Spa). And Bill puts Junior Alvarado up for this test. They are a money-making combo, and the odds are attractive. *

#2 – Quantum Leap is a Pioneer of the Nile boy and has gone this distance over the Gulfstream fast track when winning his maiden from a forward position. He kept driving against other company and has had four nice works since then. You may not be thrilled about his journeyman jockey, but Vasquez drills this track every working day and brings home some excellent prize money. *

#3 – Jirafales shows nothing on paper or performance that indicates he is in contention with this crowd.

#4 – Southern Passage is the son of one of my favorites, Super Saver, but there is nothing in his eight races that is exciting.

#6 – Sigiloso is Antonio Sano’s 30-1 ML entry who’s been running on the lawn with smaller crowds. He may have a purpose here, as Sano has another entry below.

#8 – Soup and Sandwich is the son of the recently dominating sire, Into Mischief. I’ll throw him in based on that alone at 20-1 with Johnny V up and Mark Casse training this kid with bullet works. I’m thinking he will be one of those who contends the pace. And if pace makes the race, Johnny is pretty good at judging it. Oh yeah, the colt is two for two. *

#9 – Collaborate is another Into Mischief son and a speedball when winning by 12 against 10 others breaking his maiden. I expect he can go to the lead, and Gaffalione knows how powerful the lead can be at Gulfstream on a fast main track. And he is shooting bullets in his works as well. Can he go the distance? I expect so. Saffie and Gaffalione have been a wicked good combination this season. Wildcard for a price. *

#10 – Spielberg is the biggest money winner from eight races, six of which are graded stakes, including a second-place finish in the Southwest a month ago and trained by the ever-present Bob Baffert. Javier Castellano takes the mount. Looks like this Union Rags son likes to travel with the crowd, but his best efforts have been as a pace tracker. He may get the chance if the two above make their play to the lead. *

#11 – Papetu showed his stuff last out in the FOY finishing third (18-1), but his jockey was a little early on his move at the top of the stretch. This Sano’s other runner with new jockey Jaramillo aboard. It will be interesting to see how Sigiloso plays into the pace for Papetu. This colt’s dad was Dialed In, who won the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in 2011. That day Dialed In beat Shackelford, who was a dominant front runner at 68-1. You were very happy with the Exacta/Trifecta results that day.*

I think we may see a similar race on Saturday. One or two who contend the pace and burnout very late to those who can make the distance with fuel to spare. Or that’s the way it appears on paper. But, if everyone reading remembers Maximum Security’s four wins here, including the Florida Derby, the say he won was to get to the front, walk the first quarter and be progressively faster in each quarter after. There wasn’t anybody going with him except Bodexpress at 71-1 who stayed the trip. This could easily set up just like the 2019 race given the three (maybe a fourth) who could be front runners. And they all have long prices. If you’re a gambler, there is your chance. Handicapping wise (we hope we are wise), it’s a play that follows the top contenders to win and some nice longer shots to follow.

 

Handigambling

On a day of racing when I play trifectas I like to use 7 horses where my favorite is on top with three contenders under the top pick and then the same three with an additional three in the bottom leg. It’s a structured bet like A w BCD w BCDEFG. So the cost is (for me anyway) is $7.50 for a $0.50 Tri. If you use a single top with 8 horses it will cost $9. You only have to win a couple of races on the card to be happy. But if I have some doubts about who of your tops are I’ll put both on top and structure the same way with my other contenders.

$0.50 - Trifecta – 5,7 with 5,7,2,8,9 with 5,7,2,8,9,1,10,11    -  $24 you can bet whatever your budget can stand

$1 - Exacta – 57 with 5,7,2,8,9,1,10,11      -   $14  -   Cheap way to go but good returns with the right LS.

 

Gamblers Up – if you want to take the risk….bet your LS below

 Play the front running LS to win in case they try a Maximum Security run

Win Bets

#9 - $12

#1 - $9

#2 & #8 - $7

Total outlay is $35

Box a $1 Exacta with the four above for another $12

The day only cost $47 for the race and the payouts for any of the above will be worth it.

After thought…..actually a forethought…Dubai is running the same day (night their time)

Here is my #1 Longshot for the UAE Derby – the start time is 10:05 am EST

#13 - Mnasek – Bay Filly by Empire Maker winner of the UAE Oaks at the distance and goes 5 pounds lighter than the boys.

Win bet on #13 and an Exacta Box 4, 6, 8, 10, 13

Final note the Dubai World Cup is at 12:50 pm EST  -  6, 7, 8, 11

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Hot pace expected in Louisiana Derby

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

The Fair Grounds spur of the Road to the Kentucky Derby comes to an end on Saturday with the Louisiana Derby (G2), carded as the day's 14th race. The 1 3/16 mile race offers a $1,000,000 purse as well as 100-40-20-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points: enough to ensure the winner can move on to Louisville, and make it very likely that its second-place finisher has a spot in the starting gate as well.

The race drew a field of eight runners including the top three finishers from both the Lecomte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2): Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon.

  Despite the smaller field, as Derby preps go, there is no shortage of early pace in the Louisiana Derby. Though, the more class-proven horses do have some ability to lay close to — but not on — the lead.

Rightandjust will certainly send; he set the pace last out in the Risen Star as well, before fading. Midnight Bourbon will be involved from the start from his near-outside gate. He should be able to get a clean trip, and has run very nice races from either on or just off the pace, though it's a question whether he actually wants that last furlong of the mile and three sixteenths.

Starrinmydreams, with the rail draw, might be forced to go; he did track the pace in his allowance win, though he led at every call in his maiden sprint win. He drew the rail last out in the Risen Star, but a slow break and a rank demeanor early spelled disaster late. Proxy has been close to the pace when hitting the board in both the Lecomte and the Risen Star, but won both his maiden and N2L races on the front end. He still needs to prove that he can win a race from off the pace, though it's easy to imagine he will be in the running for a piece.

Then there's both Run Classic and Mandaloun. Neither has been a pacesetter, but both have looked good tracking close to the pace. 

Mandaloun, of course, is the more class-proven in this flight. The Brad Cox trainee was the talking horse leading into the Lecomte, though he disappointed as the odds-on chalk. Adding blinkers for the Risen Star, his second career route try, worked out very nicely. He tracked in range and took over in the lane, showing good confidence to win by a length and a quarter. He ran like a horse who appreciated that mile and an eighth distance, and who should be able to handle the extra sixteenth.

Run Classic tries stakes company for the first time. He only debuted on January 16, on the Lecomte undercard, finishing second in a six-furlong maiden. The stretch out to two turns suited Run Classic nicely; he returned in a route maiden on the Risen Star undercard, got bet down to 1.7/1 favoritism, and crushed the opposition. Trainer Bret Calhoun is razor-sharp with last-out maiden winners, and they're not all chalks: not only does he have a 20% win rate over the last three years, but a flat-bet profit in that span.  And, Calhoun just won the Louisiana Derby two years ago with a last-out maiden winner, By My Standards.

The only true off-pace horses in this field are Hot Rod Charlie and O Besos.  O Besos ran fourth in the Risen Star, his first try over a two-turn trip. Hot Rod Charlie is more class-proven. (There's a trainer change on paper, but Leandro Mora is Doug O'Neill's assistant and he always takes over if O'Neill is serving a suspension.) Hot Rod Charlie went straight from a maiden victory to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; he defied his 94/1 odds and ran second, less than a length beaten by eventual champion Essential Quality. He returned in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), and despite having some trouble, he only lost a three-way win photo to Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian. That's plenty of class to fit in well in the Louisiana Derby.

 

Selections:

#6 Mandaloun (8/5)

#3 Run Classic (12/1)

#5 Hot Rod Charlie (3/1)

 

Longshot: Assuming all the speed stays in, #6 O Besos (15/1) has some reason to improve in this spot. He will have to improve, as he ran a well-beaten fourth behind main contenders Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star. However, he has good form over the Fair Grounds dirt, and he has the right running style to come pick up the pieces in a race where there should be some pieces to grab late. And, his pedigree suggests this two-turn distance may suit him. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Orb out of a listed stakes winner going two turns on the Fair Grounds dirt. He hasn't yet shown what you can call a devastating late kick against good horses, but in a mile and three sixteenths race with enough speed drawn in, it's usually smart to find that plodder who is going to keep on coming in order to make the exotics pay off. O Besos is always improving position late, and looks like that longer-priced plodder.