Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Florida Derby (G1)

 Greatest Honour tries for hat trick in Florida Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan

Welcome back again to South Florida for the final leg of the three-year-olds seasonal prep for the Kentucky Derby. Get your sunscreen and polarized glasses on because it is going to be pushing 87° real feel with some clouds and a breeze. 

Let's check out the contenders.

If you read my last article for the FOY a month ago and took the $3 Trifecta bet, you made about a 50% return when #7 - Greatest Honour did his closing move at 1-1 odds. Will he do it again? I’m pretty confident he’ll be trying in the same fashion. The question is will he get the same setup as last time. There are several contenders who could push a pace that might spoil a late closing type like our FOY hero.

There is a Curlin colt, #5 - Known Agenda, in this group who has beaten Greatest Honour in an $80k maiden going this distance when they were two-year-olds. Known Agenda rand mid-pack for half the race and pulled to the lead, winning by a neck. His next two races were not stellar, with Johnny V up in the slop once and a large crowd in the Sam Davis when holding back, it seems. However, he found his wings, winning by 11 at this distance over Gulfstream’s fast track. He also has the best speed and time at the distance for this group. So who else is a front runner who might sustain the pace and distance?

#1 - Nova Rags was a winner in the Pasco and second in the Sam Davis. The son of Union Rags is built for the distance and has had five steady works with Bill Mott at Payson Park (the Florida version of the Spa). And Bill puts Junior Alvarado up for this test. They are a money-making combo, and the odds are attractive. *

#2 – Quantum Leap is a Pioneer of the Nile boy and has gone this distance over the Gulfstream fast track when winning his maiden from a forward position. He kept driving against other company and has had four nice works since then. You may not be thrilled about his journeyman jockey, but Vasquez drills this track every working day and brings home some excellent prize money. *

#3 – Jirafales shows nothing on paper or performance that indicates he is in contention with this crowd.

#4 – Southern Passage is the son of one of my favorites, Super Saver, but there is nothing in his eight races that is exciting.

#6 – Sigiloso is Antonio Sano’s 30-1 ML entry who’s been running on the lawn with smaller crowds. He may have a purpose here, as Sano has another entry below.

#8 – Soup and Sandwich is the son of the recently dominating sire, Into Mischief. I’ll throw him in based on that alone at 20-1 with Johnny V up and Mark Casse training this kid with bullet works. I’m thinking he will be one of those who contends the pace. And if pace makes the race, Johnny is pretty good at judging it. Oh yeah, the colt is two for two. *

#9 – Collaborate is another Into Mischief son and a speedball when winning by 12 against 10 others breaking his maiden. I expect he can go to the lead, and Gaffalione knows how powerful the lead can be at Gulfstream on a fast main track. And he is shooting bullets in his works as well. Can he go the distance? I expect so. Saffie and Gaffalione have been a wicked good combination this season. Wildcard for a price. *

#10 – Spielberg is the biggest money winner from eight races, six of which are graded stakes, including a second-place finish in the Southwest a month ago and trained by the ever-present Bob Baffert. Javier Castellano takes the mount. Looks like this Union Rags son likes to travel with the crowd, but his best efforts have been as a pace tracker. He may get the chance if the two above make their play to the lead. *

#11 – Papetu showed his stuff last out in the FOY finishing third (18-1), but his jockey was a little early on his move at the top of the stretch. This Sano’s other runner with new jockey Jaramillo aboard. It will be interesting to see how Sigiloso plays into the pace for Papetu. This colt’s dad was Dialed In, who won the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in 2011. That day Dialed In beat Shackelford, who was a dominant front runner at 68-1. You were very happy with the Exacta/Trifecta results that day.*

I think we may see a similar race on Saturday. One or two who contend the pace and burnout very late to those who can make the distance with fuel to spare. Or that’s the way it appears on paper. But, if everyone reading remembers Maximum Security’s four wins here, including the Florida Derby, the say he won was to get to the front, walk the first quarter and be progressively faster in each quarter after. There wasn’t anybody going with him except Bodexpress at 71-1 who stayed the trip. This could easily set up just like the 2019 race given the three (maybe a fourth) who could be front runners. And they all have long prices. If you’re a gambler, there is your chance. Handicapping wise (we hope we are wise), it’s a play that follows the top contenders to win and some nice longer shots to follow.

 

Handigambling

On a day of racing when I play trifectas I like to use 7 horses where my favorite is on top with three contenders under the top pick and then the same three with an additional three in the bottom leg. It’s a structured bet like A w BCD w BCDEFG. So the cost is (for me anyway) is $7.50 for a $0.50 Tri. If you use a single top with 8 horses it will cost $9. You only have to win a couple of races on the card to be happy. But if I have some doubts about who of your tops are I’ll put both on top and structure the same way with my other contenders.

$0.50 - Trifecta – 5,7 with 5,7,2,8,9 with 5,7,2,8,9,1,10,11    -  $24 you can bet whatever your budget can stand

$1 - Exacta – 57 with 5,7,2,8,9,1,10,11      -   $14  -   Cheap way to go but good returns with the right LS.

 

Gamblers Up – if you want to take the risk….bet your LS below

 Play the front running LS to win in case they try a Maximum Security run

Win Bets

#9 - $12

#1 - $9

#2 & #8 - $7

Total outlay is $35

Box a $1 Exacta with the four above for another $12

The day only cost $47 for the race and the payouts for any of the above will be worth it.

After thought…..actually a forethought…Dubai is running the same day (night their time)

Here is my #1 Longshot for the UAE Derby – the start time is 10:05 am EST

#13 - Mnasek – Bay Filly by Empire Maker winner of the UAE Oaks at the distance and goes 5 pounds lighter than the boys.

Win bet on #13 and an Exacta Box 4, 6, 8, 10, 13

Final note the Dubai World Cup is at 12:50 pm EST  -  6, 7, 8, 11

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Florida Derby (G1)

All Fired Up for the Florida Derby!

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

It’s a new world, for the world, isn’t it? But the world of horse racing continues with many restrictions for the fan base with no attendance at the tracks while the crews and connections follow Covid-19 guidelines to continue our sport. And horse racing is the only major sport still active around the world to my knowledge.

What remains for us as fans is an opportunity to see this great race from afar, on TV and via the internet. As depressing as the current situation is; try to find some bright spots along the way. Maybe you dress up in your best race hats, pull out the fish dip and crackers, get a beverage and have a virtual party with your Pals via Skype to toast the winners. So fire up your hardware and check your accounts for a great race.

Programming Note: Javier Castellano will not be at today’s races as he is in quarantine for Covid-19. We won’t know who else is positive until the day begins. Note 2: The Pick 6 is in play and will be paid out on this race.

We seem to have more than full field with an AE, of which there are four strong win contenders and the remaining longshots. And the track has been playing fast and favoring speed horses.

All the top jockeys at the meet are here with some out of town guests with the exception of Javier. Some of the nation’s top trainers are here to vie for the title including five times winner Todd Pletcher who hooks up with Johnny V. again. Don’t know who has the mount for Pletcher’s other colt, Candy Tycoon.

Let’s handy this one….

#1 As Seen on TV (12-1) – Breen/Lopez – This Looking at Lucky colt likes to track the pace close but got wrung out in the FOY Stakes after being boxed to the turn following a 56 day break when he lost by a head in the Mucho Macho Man going 103. He’s had two good works since last out including a bullet. Second off the break, makes 100+ twice, sired by Preakness and Haskell winner and his jockey won 7 the other day on a single card and continues to the winner’s circle on a regular basis. This is an ITM horse Looking (no pun) and if the connections change their pace positioning, he might upset. He needs to be near the top. 

#2 Shivaree (30-1) – Nicks/Jaramillo – This guy is in the money a lot going shorter and may try to be part of the pace early on from an inside post and an aggressive jockey. He goes blinkers off which is not going to improve his breeding that does not suggest success at the distance. Daddy was a sprinter a mom wasn’t very keen. Chances are low that he will be in the money for this one.

#3 Dic Jockey (20-1) – Saffie/Gaffalione – He’s been on a 40 day rest after winning a stakes here going seven furlongs. He’s gotten four works in since then and they look good. His trainer has been just stellar at Gulfstream this meet, and Tyler gets it done for him 24% of the time. I expect we all know his sire, Bodemiester and the talent that he showed. Given the above I think this guy improves off his last in both pace and speed to break past the 100 barrier. He’s a closer folks and that doesn’t seem to fit today track but, I expect he needs to be in the exotics.

#4 Soros (30-1) – Delgado/Prado – 119 days is a long break for any horse. Soros got back on the work tab with six works going well with two at 6 furlongs and a bullet five move. This will be a first start as a three year old. Challenging situation and a big ask. In his favor is Delgado’s record at the meet is excellent and Edgar is on a high just past Cordero for wins yesterday for 7057. As a team these two hit at 25%. Can’t speak to how good the horse really is but he could be an extreme longshot given his sire’s performance in the Belmont when Commissioner took it to them losing by a head to Tonalist when California Chrome lost his Triple Crown bid. Gotta throw him in the bottom of a tri or super.

#5 Gouverneur Morris (8-1) – Pletcher/Velazquez – Now this is a team. I think they are the top winners for this event with five wins each; four of them as a team. GM has been the favorite in every race he’s entered. Hope he’s not disappointed with being the fourth ML pick. Like As Seen on TV his style is to track the pace and pounce. Don’t let the lower level optional claiming race fool ya. His trainer wanted a race under his belt to prep for this. He’s had a work every ten days or so going well. By Constitution, who is changing the statistics in the new sire rank, there is no durability or ability question. Logical ITM play on or near the top given the connections.

#6 Ajaaweed (30-1) – McLaughlin/Saez – I’m kinda wondering why this fella is here. One win in five lifetime, likes to run late in the high 80s and lost badly in the SF Davis in Tampa to Independence Hall by 11+ lengths. This is Kairan’s last outing as a trainer as he moves on to the agent ranks. He will be missed. Luis Saez is at the top of the class at Gulfstream right now and I’m sure will make a best effort with his mount, but I can’t imagine Ajaaweed making an impact.

#7 Tiz the Law (6/5) – Tagg/Franco – I picked this fella in the first Derby pool and his sire in that pool. Think his three for four record with two graded stakes wins and can fire a 108 here in the Holy Bull says a lot about his ability. He’s been rested for 56 days and worked five time with a nice 1:13 six and a bullet five a week before. Manny is 50% with Tagg in two tries. Tiz’s early tracking style and pace make him a win contender. The only drawback is the comments about getting in trouble at the gate. That concerns me as it is expected that the early pace will be contested, and the track have favored speed. Any delay from the gate hurts his chances.

#8 My First Grammy (50-1) – Sanchez/Berrios – My question is why? There is no doubt about this colt’s pedigree and ability in the future will improve but at this level with his past performances, there is little doubt where he will be in the finish order. No.

#9 Independence Hall (9/2) – Trombetta/Rosario – Another stalwart performer from Constitution in this year’s crop. A Grade III winner at two and a race favorite in all his races to date, he gave up his lead in the Tampa stakes late. He is an on or near the lead type and fits the scenario for Gulfstream He gets Rosario aboard and Joel is a master craftsman at pace. Brisnet gives him the number one power rating but I would put him second or third behind Tiz the Law and Ete Indien.

#10 Candy Tycoon (20-1) – Pletcher/????? – A Twirling Candy colt who has won one of six career starts and was 8+ lengths behind Ete Indien in the Fountain of Youth Stakes 28 days ago. He goes with plus four pounds this time. Yes, he gutted it out to take second from As Seen on Tv, but I expect limited improvement off that run. Toss. We don’t know who gets the ride yet.

#11 Sassy But Smart (50-1) – Condie/Bravo – Here is another question Why? Can’t see a colt who’s been traveling the lawn and whose sire’s career ended after three races making something special happen here. A good candidate for the AE to replace. Toss.

#12 Ete Indien (4-1) – Biancone/Geroux – This FOY winner looks great. He’s three for five lifetime, has mustered three races in a row at 103+, on 28 days rest (ideal) he shot a warm down works and bullet seven and a bullet four at Palm Meadows and the connections are good. Looks to be the most fit or the field to me and I like the current odds. My top pick.

#13 Rogue Element (50-1) – Romans/Vazquez – This also eligible Honor Code colt is the best of the 50 to 1 longshots in the field although he is a maiden. He has the same faults as the others; lacking experience against a high level, low speeds, and a work tab that is uninspiring. If he gets in, I would throw him in the bottom of a Superfecta just because.

My best successes in betting are with patterned Trifectas. If the odds are right, I’ll use two win picks on top and then fill in the space below with long and short contenders to round out the bet in a $0.50 bet. That gives me the option of playing one or multiple bets to match my bankroll. We have a field of 12 to play today which is the max that can go if everyone runs. I’ll toss the 2, 6, 8, 10, 11, and the 13 AE. I will use the remaining seven in the bet.

$0.50 Trifecta - 1, 12 with 1, 5, 7, 9, 12 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12  = $20

It’s half the price if you key the 12 on top and half again if you put the 12 in second…You can bet my winner or pick one of your own in the format below for a low-cost safety bet.

$0.50 Trifecta - 12 with 1, 5, 7, 9, with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 =  $10

$0.50 Trifecta - 1, 5, 7, 9 with 12 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12 = $10

Now for a safety reminder:

Some of the recent news in our racing world has not been the best and the coronavirus has further threatened our sport not to mention our families and friends around the world. 

Funny thing is most of us ride the internet carefree because we have a Virus Protection in place, right? But we have no Virus protection for this bug or a bug fix either. Make no mistake; invisible deadly bullets are flying out there and you won’t know who is armed and dangerous until you’ve been hit. Then you won’t know you’ve been hit for several days while you take the new bullets someone gave you home to others. 

Troubling times call for personal change and an assessment of risk to make changes that will reduce your exposure. We do have ways to avoid or reduce the threat. It’s like not going outside during hurricanes or tornadoes when bullets are flying or betting money you can’t afford to lose is common sense. 

Best way to avoid being struck by a bullet is; not to get into a gunfight. If you have to get in a gunfight (check with the Vets and Law Enforcement) the second best thing is to wear your protection, e.g.; armor, vest, and helmet. Not getting out of your bunker (home/safe space) and not letting others in that have a loaded weapon will significantly reduce you and your families’ risk of being a victim of a bullet. 

When you leave your safe space, wear your gloves, take the sanitizer and wipes with you and protect your space. You may not completely avoid the stray bullet from a drive-by but, you’ll have done your best. Please, Practice Common Sense. I want to see you at the tracks.

Jockeys Wear Protection for their Safety and Jobs. Shouldn’t We All?