Greatest Honour tries for hat trick in Florida Derby
By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan
Welcome back again to South Florida for the final leg of the three-year-olds seasonal prep for the Kentucky Derby. Get your sunscreen and polarized glasses on because it is going to be pushing 87° real feel with some clouds and a breeze.
Let's check out the contenders.
If you read my last article for the FOY a month ago and took the $3 Trifecta bet, you made about a 50% return when #7 - Greatest Honour did his closing move at 1-1 odds. Will he do it again? I’m pretty confident he’ll be trying in the same fashion. The question is will he get the same setup as last time. There are several contenders who could push a pace that might spoil a late closing type like our FOY hero.
There is a Curlin colt, #5 - Known Agenda, in this group who has beaten Greatest Honour in an $80k maiden going this distance when they were two-year-olds. Known Agenda rand mid-pack for half the race and pulled to the lead, winning by a neck. His next two races were not stellar, with Johnny V up in the slop once and a large crowd in the Sam Davis when holding back, it seems. However, he found his wings, winning by 11 at this distance over Gulfstream’s fast track. He also has the best speed and time at the distance for this group. So who else is a front runner who might sustain the pace and distance?
#1 - Nova Rags was a winner in the Pasco and second in the Sam Davis. The son of Union Rags is built for the distance and has had five steady works with Bill Mott at Payson Park (the Florida version of the Spa). And Bill puts Junior Alvarado up for this test. They are a money-making combo, and the odds are attractive. *
#2 – Quantum Leap is a Pioneer of the Nile boy and has gone this distance over the Gulfstream fast track when winning his maiden from a forward position. He kept driving against other company and has had four nice works since then. You may not be thrilled about his journeyman jockey, but Vasquez drills this track every working day and brings home some excellent prize money. *
#3 – Jirafales shows nothing on paper or performance that indicates he is in contention with this crowd.
#4 – Southern Passage is the son of one of my favorites, Super Saver, but there is nothing in his eight races that is exciting.
#6 – Sigiloso is Antonio Sano’s 30-1 ML entry who’s been running on the lawn with smaller crowds. He may have a purpose here, as Sano has another entry below.
#8 – Soup and Sandwich is the son of the recently dominating sire, Into Mischief. I’ll throw him in based on that alone at 20-1 with Johnny V up and Mark Casse training this kid with bullet works. I’m thinking he will be one of those who contends the pace. And if pace makes the race, Johnny is pretty good at judging it. Oh yeah, the colt is two for two. *
#9 – Collaborate is another Into Mischief son and a speedball when winning by 12 against 10 others breaking his maiden. I expect he can go to the lead, and Gaffalione knows how powerful the lead can be at Gulfstream on a fast main track. And he is shooting bullets in his works as well. Can he go the distance? I expect so. Saffie and Gaffalione have been a wicked good combination this season. Wildcard for a price. *
#10 – Spielberg is the biggest money winner from eight races, six of which are graded stakes, including a second-place finish in the Southwest a month ago and trained by the ever-present Bob Baffert. Javier Castellano takes the mount. Looks like this Union Rags son likes to travel with the crowd, but his best efforts have been as a pace tracker. He may get the chance if the two above make their play to the lead. *
#11 – Papetu showed his stuff last out in the FOY finishing third (18-1), but his jockey was a little early on his move at the top of the stretch. This Sano’s other runner with new jockey Jaramillo aboard. It will be interesting to see how Sigiloso plays into the pace for Papetu. This colt’s dad was Dialed In, who won the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in 2011. That day Dialed In beat Shackelford, who was a dominant front runner at 68-1. You were very happy with the Exacta/Trifecta results that day.*
I think we may see a similar race on Saturday. One or two who contend the pace and burnout very late to those who can make the distance with fuel to spare. Or that’s the way it appears on paper. But, if everyone reading remembers Maximum Security’s four wins here, including the Florida Derby, the say he won was to get to the front, walk the first quarter and be progressively faster in each quarter after. There wasn’t anybody going with him except Bodexpress at 71-1 who stayed the trip. This could easily set up just like the 2019 race given the three (maybe a fourth) who could be front runners. And they all have long prices. If you’re a gambler, there is your chance. Handicapping wise (we hope we are wise), it’s a play that follows the top contenders to win and some nice longer shots to follow.
Handigambling
On a day of racing when I play trifectas I like to use 7 horses where my favorite is on top with three contenders under the top pick and then the same three with an additional three in the bottom leg. It’s a structured bet like A w BCD w BCDEFG. So the cost is (for me anyway) is $7.50 for a $0.50 Tri. If you use a single top with 8 horses it will cost $9. You only have to win a couple of races on the card to be happy. But if I have some doubts about who of your tops are I’ll put both on top and structure the same way with my other contenders.
$0.50 - Trifecta – 5,7 with 5,7,2,8,9 with 5,7,2,8,9,1,10,11 - $24 you can bet whatever your budget can stand
$1 - Exacta – 57 with 5,7,2,8,9,1,10,11 - $14 - Cheap way to go but good returns with the right LS.
Gamblers Up – if you want to take the risk….bet your LS below
Play the front running LS to win in case they try a Maximum Security run
Win Bets
#9 - $12
#1 - $9
#2 & #8 - $7
Total outlay is $35
Box a $1 Exacta with the four above for another $12
The day only cost $47 for the race and the payouts for any of the above will be worth it.
After thought…..actually a forethought…Dubai is running the same day (night their time)
Here is my #1 Longshot for the UAE Derby – the start time is 10:05 am EST
#13 - Mnasek – Bay Filly by Empire Maker winner of the UAE Oaks at the distance and goes 5 pounds lighter than the boys.
Win bet on #13 and an Exacta Box 4, 6, 8, 10, 13
Final note the Dubai World Cup is at 12:50 pm EST - 6, 7, 8, 11
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