Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Santa Anita Handicap (G1)

 Westward-Ho to the Santa Anita Handicap

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

American author and newspaper editor Horace Greeley is credited with the phrase, “Go West, young man,” and for this weekend, ThoroFan will heed his advice and head in that direction. Our cross-country travel takes us to Santa Anita Park, a.k.a. “The Great Race Place,” for the $400,000 Santa Anita Handicap.

The Santa Anita Handicap, which once offered a purse of $1 million, has lost some of its luster from its glory years when it was considered the most important race for older horses in North America during the winter racing season. Overseas races such as the Dubai World Cup and the Saudi Cup, both carrying far wealthier purses, have attracted some top U.S. runners; however, the Big ‘Cap with all of its rich history, is still a special race.

The 2021 renewal features a field of eight, headlined by Godolphin’s homebred, Maxfield, undefeated in five starts. The Brendan Walsh trainee shipped in from his home base in New Orleans and was installed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite for the Big ‘Cap, his first start in California.

This year’s edition has the look of a competitive contest, with six of the eight combatants having 10 races or less on their resumes.

Scheduled post time is 7:30 eastern time - Let’s have a brief look at the horses from the rail out.

 

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer - ML

1 - Independence Hall – Flavien Pratt/Michael McCarthy – 4-1: In the first start of his four-year-old season, he outran his 27-1 odds when third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). He stalked a quick pace that day alongside a couple of others, but when those two opponents faded, this one kept fighting and just got passed late for the place spot. Since he was well-beaten in his previous Grade 1 tries, his last effort could be an impending sign that he’s improving and might belong in top company. He can authenticate it with another solid showing.

2 - Maxfield – Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh – 8-5: Has been perfect throughout an injury-shortened five-race career. That last win at Fairgrounds in the Mineshaft (G3) was a solid prep leading up to this. He’s never shown any signs of rust when returning from extended time off, so expect him to fire his best shot again, but will it be good enough going 10 furlongs?

3 - Kiss Today Goodbye –Mike Smith/Eric Kruljac – 8-1: After winning the San Antonio (G2) two starts back, he was shipped east to Gulfstream Park for the Pegasus World Cup (G1), where he was badly outrun. Since returning back home, he’s fired a couple of bullet works, so look for a better showing from this colt.

4 - Coastal Defense – John Velazquez/Dale Romans – 15-1: Exits a sixth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) after a pair of fourth-places efforts in the Clark (G1) and Fayette(G2). He’ll have to improve dramatically to win. Don’t see it happening.

5 - Express Train – Juan Hernandez/John Sheriffs – 3-1: He missed over a year of racing, but when he returned last September, he dispatched 11 rivals in an allowance race after having trouble at the beginning of the six-and-a-half-furlong affair. Was second in the seven-furlong Malibu (G1) against Charlatan, then stretched out to win the nine-furlong San Pasquale easily. He’s had only one bad race in eight-lifetime starts, and that came in his lone try on turf. Top contender.

6 - Idol – Joel Rosario/Richard Baltas – 6-1: Last out in the San Pasquale (G2), this colt was third, and that followed a runner-up placing in the San Antonio (G2), where he missed by a half-length. Obviously, he possesses the talent to be highly competitive at the graded level off just a non-winner allowance race. Expect another good effort.

7 - Tizamagician – Drayden Van Dyke/Richard Mandella – 12-1: He briefly flirted on the Kentucky Derby trail early last season before being pointed in another direction. He’s been in top form since early September and comes off a second-place finish in the San Pasquale (G2), where he set the pace before tiring. He’s done all his racing in California, splitting time between Del Mar and Santa Anita, so this is ‘home sweet home’ for him. Likely to be the pacesetter but appears to be better suited at 9 furlongs.

8 - King Guillermo – Abel Cedillo/Juan Avila – 12-1: Last year’s Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up missed the Kentucky Derby when injured prior to the big race. Since his return in late fall, he’s been beaten by a total of 34-lengths in two races. Needs a major form reversal.

 

ANALYSIS:

Express Train has been on the improve all winter long at Santa Anita. He delivered the best win of his career last out in the San Pasquale. He’s in top form, bred for the distance, proven over the surface, has tactical speed and his workouts since his last race have him sharp.

Maxfield has been steady race in/race out, wearing down his rivals from off the pace with his late kick. However, a big concern is he’s being asked to run a mile and a quarter after having never traveled further than one-mile and one-sixteenth. At low odds, that’s an awful risk to bet on. Kiss Today Goodbye is returning to Santa Anita, where he registered two of his three wins. He should be finishing well at this distance. So too, Idol who had trouble in his last two races and now gets a significant rider change to Rosario. Assuming he stays clear of trouble, this one should also be running on late. Independence Hall was able to redeem himself last time out in the Pegasus. He got a good trip that day, and being drawn inside here, he could get a similar trip. His good tactical speed should have him forwardly placed and ready to strike in the stretch.

 

WAGER: A win bet on Express Train and put the other four with him in exactas and trifectas.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!