Fountain of Youth Picks N'Plays
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan
Welcome back to Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth. The weather is ideal and forecast to be partly cloudy, high of 81, with winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph; unlike the remainder of the country. It is a serious disappointment not to be able to see this live for many of us as this is the second leg of our racing highlights in Florida land for the Derby quest.
I went back and looked at the last six races just to check. In only two of the last six did the favorite win. Upstart (4-5) in 2015 crossed the line first and was DQ’d and placed second to Itsaknockout (5.4-1), with the late closing Frammento (63-1) getting third. And Frosted (4-1), you guys remember Frosted? Held on for fourth.
The other fav to win was Mohaymen (2-5) took the honors over Zulu (4-1) and Fellowship (22-1).
Last year’s winner, Ete Indien (3-1) went gate to wire, winning by 8.5 lengths with a blanket of four behind him with Candy Tycoon(22-1) and As Seen on TV (2.8-1 second fav).
The other years 2017-2019, saw better odds with late closing Gunnevera (4-1) followed by Promised Fulfilled (18-1) going wire to wire and the future Travers winner Code of Honor (9-1) taking the 2019 version from mid-pack.
To me, that adds up to short odds, may well lose to a well-timed ride, or the front runner who can stay there and improve his position. I wouldn’t leave the favorites off my tickets, but I would play the best longshots with them as the history says it’s so.
Short odds
#8-Greatest Honour (9-5) mid to late-closing when winning the Holy Bull here. Great turn of foot to win by 5+ lengths. Gotta use him.
#4-Fire at Will (7-2) has been taking a rest since his two-year-old campaign on the turf. Good works and a trainer who brings back horses off a rest. Gotta use him, too.
#1-Drain the Clock (5-1) has been sprinting on or near the lead very well, winning 4 of 5 and lost only after his iron broke. He’s by Maclean’s Music, so distance should not be an issue. Like him a lot because I think we get a price for him.
His neighbor, #2-Prime Factor (5-1) was soundly beaten as the odds-on favorite in the Holy Bull after seven furlongs of tracking. Not a top pick for me.
#7-Tarantino (8-1) (man, I love the name), brought to us by Pioneer of the Nile, excelled at 27-1 to finish behind Greatest Honour in the Bull. Quite good for a first on dirt. I expect better things from this guy with Gaffalione up and is my Key horse.
Longer shots
#3-Sososubtle (20-1), #5-Jirafales (20-1), #6-King's Ovation (15-1), #9-Tiz Tact Toe (30-1), and #10-Papetu (15-1).
I can only see two of these fellas going forward into the mix. Sososubtle and Papetu. Sososubtle has a jockey who could adjust to the speed, has had a great work just prior to the race, and his speed improvement from his first race with a change in surface says he might be a spoiler. Papetu is ridden by Mohaymen’s winning jockey, and although it looks bad with a 10 length loss to Greatest Honour but his rail trip was foiled until after the final turn when he was driving home. Maybe a better position to move into the clear.
Handigambling
Gotta use the favorite on top and in the middle.
$3 Trifecta – 8 with 7, 1, 4, 3, 10 with 7, 1, 4, 3, 10 - $60
$1.50 Trifecta – 7 with 8, 1, 4, 3, 10 with 8, 1, 4, 3, 10 - $20
$2 Exacta Box – 8, 7, 3 - $12
$8 Exacta – 8 with 7
Good luck to everyone, and stay safe out there.
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