Buena Vista Stakes Picks N' Plays
By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Member
Initially run in 1988, The Buena Vista for fillies and mares 4yo & up will be contested over a grassy mile for the 32nd time on Saturday. Ten entrants are scheduled to go to the gate under clear skies and a presumed firm course in race 7 at “The Great Race Place” - Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.
At first glance, this looks like a wide-open affair. Upon closer inspection, The Buena Vista will indeed be a great race with many places to land. There looks to be plenty of pace on with 2 entrants who disputed the pace in last month’s 6F Las Cienegas. Charmaine’s Mia (#8) went on to win that by 2 ½ lengths while Bohemian Bourbon (#1) faded to fifth. It should be noted that the 4th place finisher in that one, Superstition, came back to win last week’s Wishing Well.
Also projected “on the engine” is Nasty (#4), the Richard Baltas trainee who wired the Lady of Shamrock stakes back on opening day traveling today’s one-mile turf distance. Sprinkle in longshot Heathers Grey (#10), who is also coming out of a turf sprint.
Those four will be pressed by the improving 4yo Going to Vegas and the multiple graded winner Mucho Unusual who both seem to show up at every dance. If you like deep closers, look no further than another improving 4yo in Red Lark or the California-bred Warren’s Showtime. No matter which way one lands, this event will have the most hardened of our brethren leaning, snapping, cheering, or whatever other “dance” is done in the final furlong when money and opinions are on the line.
A brief look at the field:
1. Bohemian Bourbon - Jose Valdivia/Michael McCarthy 20-1; Second off the layoff, this 5yo mare will be making start #2 for her new trainer. She has had a steady diet of turf sprints back east and looks best with a target to run at. Given she is breaking from the rail and coming out of said sprints, I expect her to towards the lead to secure position. Being by Midshipman out of a Bernardini mare, one would think a turf mile is within her grasp. But Ian Wilkes, her former conditioner, tried that only once. If she wins, you will get paid.
2. Mucho Unusual - Abel Cedillo/Tim Yakteen 7-2; This Cal-bred mare simply shows up every time and has done so in graded races. She gets her 5th new pilot in as many races as Joel Rosario is in the Middle East riding a magic carpet named Knicks Go in the Saudi Cup. The only blemishes on Mucho’s record are 2 poor runs, both at Keeneland in Grade I’s. If there was a knock on her, which is not really one, is how long can she keep up this consistency? For her owner George Krikorian, that is a positive problem to have. A serious contender.
3. Warren’s Showtime – Juan Hernandez/Craig Lewis 5-1; The “other” Cal-bred comes in with a record of only missing the board twice in a 16-race career. This homebred runs on any surface or distance and flat out can run. She has won 5 of 9 at a mile on turf and has never been off the board in 7 tries on Santa Anita’s green. She will be running late. Contender.
4. Nasty – Ricky Gonzales/Richard Baltas 6-1; This lightly raced 4yo has shown flashes of the deadly combination of “lick & stick” in the past. She can go a sub:46 half-mile and still be around at the finish. The others better keep her in their sights. If she shakes looks, watch out. That said, she has shown the ability to sit just off another speed like she did in the Autumn Miss stakes. It just so happens in that affair that she was tagged late by 2 foes in today’s race (Warren’s Showtime & Going to Vegas). Contender at a price.
5. Red Lark – Drayden Van Dyke/Paddy Gallagher 8-1; This deep closer looks to be coming into her own. She exits 3 Grade I tries all at longer distances, where she won one of them. If the pace is hot, this could set up perfectly for her. In her first race off a short break, the G1 American Oaks, she closed very well into a slow pace. She was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths by Chad Brown’s Duopoly, who lulled them to sleep on the front end. Prior to that, she was a good closing 4th, beat 1 ¾ lengths for it all in the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland. She is not chasing those types in here. Price Play and Pick.
6. Sedamar – Rueben Fuentes/Shelbie Ruis 8-1; Her 2020 campaign had her on a steady diet of state-bred races where she was always competitive. In her 1st start this year, she did come within ¾ of a length to Mucho Unusual in the G3 Megahertz. That margin of victory was deceiving as the winner had plenty left. Longshot.
7. Going to Vegas – Mario Gutierrez/Richard Baltas 6-1; This miss finished in front of Red Lark in the American Oaks last out. She was much closer to that slow pace and kept on well. She will appreciate getting away from Chad Brown’s army as that was the 2nd in a row where he shipped out and won where Going to Vegas ran 2nd. This $50k claim last June has proven to be a shrewd move as she has run 2nd her last 3 efforts, all graded races. She consistently hits the board and does so at double-digit odds. Board threat.
8. Charmaine’s Mia – Flavien Prat/Phil D’Amato 3-1; This speedy gal, like the rail horse, is coming out of turf sprints and is making her 2nd start off a layoff. What looks to be a private purchase from her former owner/trainer, Michael McDonald, ‘ Mia has plenty of gas to be forwardly placed from her outside box. Can she carry her speed 2 turns is the question. If allowed to roll early, we will find out. Contender.
9. Sloane Garden (GB) – Tiago Pereira/Manuel Badilla 12-1; A 5yo mare who ships down from Golden Gate to make her first start of the year, will need to step up her game to compete. The waters are much deeper in Southern California but hey, why not take a shot? She has a good turn of foot and will be in front of the deep closers. Perhaps the seas part for her, and she gets the jump. This handicapper won’t be betting on it. Outsider.
10.Heathers Grey – Jessica Pyfer/Sean McCarthy 20-1; With only three wins to her credit, she seems up against it. She has yet to clear her “two other than” condition and seems ambitiously placed. Her outside draw did her no favors either. Outsider.
The Play
I will be keying Red Lark to catch them all late. There is plenty of pace here, which is something that she didn’t get in her last few. She will be a square price, projects a good set up, and looks to breakthrough in this spot.
I will be using her with Nasty, who seems to have the versatility to “play the break” and position herself in a cozy spot and make her presence felt both early and late.
I can't leave Mucho Unusual or Warren’s Showtime off my tickets as they shows up every time.
I plan to stand against Charmaine’s Mia at her odds and her post. Perhaps she can parlay her Las Cienegas win sprinting to a Buena Vista score going two turns. I’m not willing to back her at her morning line odds to find out.
Win/Place - #5
Exacta key Box - #5/2,3,4
Exacta straight #5/2,3,4
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