Withers Stakes Could be a Risky Business
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan
The Withers Stakes (GII) is one of the major prep races for the Kentucky Derby held at the New York Racing Association’s Aqueduct Racetrack. It is distinguished by its two-turns and mile and an eighth distance—just an 1/8 mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. As with most of the early Derby prep races, trainers test their horse’s abilities, often asking for something few have done before. That allows for handicapping surprises.
Weather in New York for the 4:25 post time on Saturday
should be dry and cool, making for a fair race. Here is the field:
1. Shackqueenking (Shackaford) is a Laurel shipper with a new jockey. He should be in a fast early pace. Although he should handle the distance, he likely will be passed in the stretch. Maybe in the exotics.
2. Royal Number (Palace Malice) will come out running seeking the shortest distance to the finish on the rail. He is trying stakes company for the first time. Another Maryland shipper that has shown his like for the distance. Maybe in the mix, if the closers don’t catch him.
3. Capo Kane (Street Sense) won the Jerome Stakes by over 6 lengths in January. He is the clear favorite to win. The added distance will test his Derby readiness. Dylan Davis returns for the ride after the Jerome. Good sign. Odds this low at this stage in prep races are difficult to accept.
4. Mr. Doda (Uptowncharliebrown) is a claimer that took six tries to break his maiden, which occurred in his last race. The distance will be a challenge for this colt. Will need more time to mature and compete at this level.
5. Risk Taking (Medaglia d’Oro) is one of trainer Chad Brown’s potential stars. He has stayed in New York, working at Belmont this winter. This might be an indication of Brown’s intentions. Will be sitting off the pace ready to run in the stretch. Getting a weight advantage from two other horses might help at the wire.
6. Overtook (Curlin) has the right breeding for this distance and longer. Although the first time at this level is concerning, along with his poor performance at this distance over this track last November. Pletcher goes to Derby conditioned jockey, Franco, to see if he can get the best out of this one.
7. Donegal Bay (Uncle Mo) is taking a big step up for the Pletcher barn. Broke his maiden last out at Gulfstream Park going wire-to-wire. May try that approach again, but this time will have serious company challenging him. Distance and stamina are his weakness.
8. Civil War (Bodemeister) broke his maiden impressively in his first race. Convinced connections he was ready for the big leagues. However, his efforts in the Champagne Stakes (GI) and the Nashua Stakes (GIII) were disastrous, losing by a combined 38 lengths. His return at a lower level wasn’t much better.
9. Eagle Orb (Orb) was competitive in the Jerome against this race’s favorite, Capo Kane, to whom he gave two pounds. This time, he drops two ponds for a net change of 4 pounds. May make amends for Trainer Rodriguez. Distance may be a major problem for him.
Sorting through the field, it looks like three horses will be vying for the early lead--- Shackqueenking, Capo Kane, and Donegal Bay ---although Royal Number may be up close. With the first turn coming quickly, this will be an advantage for them. However, it looks like the race’s winner will come from the stalking group. Here is how I think they will finish:
1. Risk Taking (#5)
2. Capo Kane (#3)
3. Shackqueenking (#1)
4. Royal Number (#2)
Handigamble:
$20 win on # 5 Risk Taking
$40 place on #5 Risk Taking
$2 Trifecta Key #5/#1, #2, #3/#1/#2/#3
$2 Trifecta Key #1, #2, #3/#5/#1/#2/#3
$.50 Trifecta Box --#1, #2 ,#3, #5
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