Behold the Queen
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan
This week the three-year-old filly of the year, Swiss Skydiver, starts her 4-year-old year as the Morning Line favorite in the grade one Beholder Mile on Saturday. She is and should be the favorite. However, the other six in the race think this might be the race to beat the queen.
So, let's look at the field and see which are the contenders in this race.
1. Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) after winning the Preakness Stakes against the boys, she dropped anchor finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI). With three months rest and nice works, she should be ready to start her four-year-old career. Her race to lose.
2. Golden Principal (Constitution) comes to a second start in 2021. Distance may be her major problem. The question is, why did trainer Baffert change his last four races’ jockey, Mike Smith, for a new pilot. She may not be fast enough for this field.
3. Harvest Moon (Uncle Mo) beat Swiss Skydiver in the Distaff, which was her last race. If she can be strategically placed behind the frontrunners, she will be dangerous in the stretch. Her regular jockey Prat knows her well and will get the best race she has out of her.
4. Sanenus (Scat Daddy) showed her ability last time out with a powerful move in the stretch to win by 6 lengths in the La Canada Stakes (GIII) over the Santa Anita track. She should be out of the gate fast and position herself for a stretch run. Sheet numbers say she is ready.
5. Miss Stormy (Tapizar) is one of the three 5-year-olds in the race but is stepping up in company. She seems unlikely to keep up with the pace of the race.
6. As Time Goes By (American Pharoah) is one of two entries for trainer Bob Baffert and his best chance of winning the race. She has front end speed with a form that suggests she is ready to improve to graded stakes. Switching to Mike Smith reinforces Baffert’s respect for the filly and confidence in her and his jockey. Could upset.
7. This Tea (Curlin) is a closer that could benefit from an early pace. Yet her huge jump in class is concerning. Not likely to get many calls.
8. Clockstrikestwelve (New Year’s Day) is another 5-year-old trying graded company for the first time. Perhaps the strongest closer in the field, but may not be fast enough to catch the winner.
Analysis
This will be a great race. Pace should be solid. Swiss Skydiver has all the class and ability. The layoff and low odds make her unattractive to back. Sanenus and Golden Principal should force the pace with Baffert’s horse, Golden Principal, setting the race up for his other horse, As Time Goes By, to finish best.
Here is how it should finish:
1. As Time Goes By (#6 )
2. Swiss Skydiver (#1)
3. Harvest Moon (#3)
4. Sanenus (#4)
Handigambling
$20 to win and place –As Time Goes By (#6) --$40
$1 Tri-box –#1, #2, #3, #4 and #6 ---$60
No comments:
Post a Comment