Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Hot pace expected in Louisiana Derby

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

The Fair Grounds spur of the Road to the Kentucky Derby comes to an end on Saturday with the Louisiana Derby (G2), carded as the day's 14th race. The 1 3/16 mile race offers a $1,000,000 purse as well as 100-40-20-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points: enough to ensure the winner can move on to Louisville, and make it very likely that its second-place finisher has a spot in the starting gate as well.

The race drew a field of eight runners including the top three finishers from both the Lecomte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2): Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon.

  Despite the smaller field, as Derby preps go, there is no shortage of early pace in the Louisiana Derby. Though, the more class-proven horses do have some ability to lay close to — but not on — the lead.

Rightandjust will certainly send; he set the pace last out in the Risen Star as well, before fading. Midnight Bourbon will be involved from the start from his near-outside gate. He should be able to get a clean trip, and has run very nice races from either on or just off the pace, though it's a question whether he actually wants that last furlong of the mile and three sixteenths.

Starrinmydreams, with the rail draw, might be forced to go; he did track the pace in his allowance win, though he led at every call in his maiden sprint win. He drew the rail last out in the Risen Star, but a slow break and a rank demeanor early spelled disaster late. Proxy has been close to the pace when hitting the board in both the Lecomte and the Risen Star, but won both his maiden and N2L races on the front end. He still needs to prove that he can win a race from off the pace, though it's easy to imagine he will be in the running for a piece.

Then there's both Run Classic and Mandaloun. Neither has been a pacesetter, but both have looked good tracking close to the pace. 

Mandaloun, of course, is the more class-proven in this flight. The Brad Cox trainee was the talking horse leading into the Lecomte, though he disappointed as the odds-on chalk. Adding blinkers for the Risen Star, his second career route try, worked out very nicely. He tracked in range and took over in the lane, showing good confidence to win by a length and a quarter. He ran like a horse who appreciated that mile and an eighth distance, and who should be able to handle the extra sixteenth.

Run Classic tries stakes company for the first time. He only debuted on January 16, on the Lecomte undercard, finishing second in a six-furlong maiden. The stretch out to two turns suited Run Classic nicely; he returned in a route maiden on the Risen Star undercard, got bet down to 1.7/1 favoritism, and crushed the opposition. Trainer Bret Calhoun is razor-sharp with last-out maiden winners, and they're not all chalks: not only does he have a 20% win rate over the last three years, but a flat-bet profit in that span.  And, Calhoun just won the Louisiana Derby two years ago with a last-out maiden winner, By My Standards.

The only true off-pace horses in this field are Hot Rod Charlie and O Besos.  O Besos ran fourth in the Risen Star, his first try over a two-turn trip. Hot Rod Charlie is more class-proven. (There's a trainer change on paper, but Leandro Mora is Doug O'Neill's assistant and he always takes over if O'Neill is serving a suspension.) Hot Rod Charlie went straight from a maiden victory to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; he defied his 94/1 odds and ran second, less than a length beaten by eventual champion Essential Quality. He returned in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), and despite having some trouble, he only lost a three-way win photo to Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian. That's plenty of class to fit in well in the Louisiana Derby.

 

Selections:

#6 Mandaloun (8/5)

#3 Run Classic (12/1)

#5 Hot Rod Charlie (3/1)

 

Longshot: Assuming all the speed stays in, #6 O Besos (15/1) has some reason to improve in this spot. He will have to improve, as he ran a well-beaten fourth behind main contenders Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star. However, he has good form over the Fair Grounds dirt, and he has the right running style to come pick up the pieces in a race where there should be some pieces to grab late. And, his pedigree suggests this two-turn distance may suit him. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Orb out of a listed stakes winner going two turns on the Fair Grounds dirt. He hasn't yet shown what you can call a devastating late kick against good horses, but in a mile and three sixteenths race with enough speed drawn in, it's usually smart to find that plodder who is going to keep on coming in order to make the exotics pay off. O Besos is always improving position late, and looks like that longer-priced plodder.