Contentious Ashland Stakes Could Produce Kentucky Oaks Winner
By: Stuart deVoe
For the eighty-fourth time, Keeneland Race Course will present The $400k Central Bank Ashland (G1) - its signature race for 3-year-old fillies this Saturday. Invariably, this 1 1/16-mile test is viewed in the context of being a prep race for the 2021 Kentucky Oaks (G1), which will take place four weeks hence. It makes sense. After all, if you own a quality 3-year-old filly this time of year, the Oaks is always the goal. In fact, thirty-four fillies who raced in the Ashland have gone on to win the Oaks, with Monomoy Girl being the last.
For those of us inclined to put a wager or two down this Saturday - we must ensure we narrow our focus to THIS event for what it is and not let our thoughts bleed into what we think will happen on the Friday before the first Saturday in May. We will worry about that race, the Kentucky Oaks, when the time is right and now is not that time. Now is the time for the Ashland! This handicapper is expecting a fast track and sunny skies.
Here is a look
at the field:
1. Curlin’s Catch (8-1) – Mark
Casse/Chris Landeros: This $430k OBS April purchase had progressed
nicely this winter, winning her maiden in a one-turn mile event at Gulfstream
and then backing that effort up with a win in Tampa Bay Down’s Suncoast – a two-turn
test. In her third start this year,
Curlin’s Catch regressed. It was in the
G2 Davona Dale back at the 1-turn Gulfstream mile. It also was her third race in less than 60
days, usually a tall task in today’s racing landscape. She, in fact, broke a bit flat-footed, was
asked by her jockey to be forward and never really responded to urging entering
the far turn. Now she is back with three
works under her belt since her poor effort and would have to rebound in a big
way. A bit of a reach.
2. Pass the Champagne (4-1) – George
Weaver/Javier Castellano: This miss was privately purchased after her first
race placing in a maiden race at Gulfstream.
Her talent was evident that day as she found trouble a few times and
still ran on well. Subsequently, she broke her maiden rather professionally in her
second start. Now, she will try winners,
graded stakes company, and two turns for the first time. George Weaver is 17% first-time routing. The talent is there, but those are a lot of
new obstacles in which to overcome. Talented
– yes. Is she ready – maybe… Possible.
3. Simply Ravishing (5-2) – Kenny
McPeek/Luis Saez: Already having won a Grade 1 at this track
and distance, this miss is the class of the field. She may have gone to the well a few too many
times at the end of her 2-year-old campaign as she started with three wins in
as many starts, but followed up with a pair of fourth-place finishes in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) (also at KEE) and Churchill’s Golden Rod
(G2). Since she is the class and is
proven at the track and distance, she must be considered a player. Contender.
4. Moon Swag (10-1) – Brendan Walsh/Adam
Beschizza: After racking up two third-place finishes at
the Fair Grounds this winter behind top Oaks contenders in Clairiere &
Travel Column, this Malibu Moon filly ships up hoping to break through. She does have two-turn and graded race
experience, both a plus. She also has a
rising star trainer in Brendan Walsh who seems to put live horses on the
track. Moon Swag is improving at the
right time but will need a solid pace to close into to get her picture taken. She may get it. Longshot chance.
5. Malathaat (9/5) – Todd Pletcher/Joel
Rosario: Shadwell Stable reached for just over $1 million
for this daughter of Curlin as a yearling at the Keeneland September Sale. She has yet to disappoint with a three-for-three
2-year-old campaign that was capped off with a victory in Aqueduct’s 1 1/8-mile
Demoiselle (G2). In that event,
Malathaat took the worst of it from a trip perspective. She was pinned on the sloppy rail much of the
race and got shuffled back behind a tiring foe around the far turn. Once loose, she ran down a nice one in Millefeuille
(second in this year’s Gulfstream Park Oaks) and put her ears up under the
wire. If she has any progression from a 2-year-old to a 3-year-old, watch
out! Oh, you also get Joel Rosario, who
just seems to cross the country and swoop up wins no matter where he
rides. Win contender.
6. Will’s Secret (7/2) – Dallas
Stewart/Jon Court: Riding a three-race win streak of her own,
Will’s Secret has made all the right moves wintering in Hot Springs,
Arkansas. After breaking her maiden at
Fair Grounds, Will’s Secret’s last two races were both two-turn stakes, the
latter being the Honeybee (G3). In that
event, she rated on the lead through tepid fractions before going on and
holding all at bay in the stretch. She
galloped out well and looked no worse for wear.
Dallas Stewart knows how to train a good one and most likely will have
her ready. Win Contender.
Analysis
Although it is important to look at the Ashland as a stand-alone event, the fact remains that at least four of these fillies, Curlin’s Catch, Malathaat, Moon Swag, and Simply Ravishing, need to finish in the exacta to ensure a spot in the 14-horse Kentucky Oaks starting gate next month. Will’s Secret, currently fourth on the Oaks point list (60pts), is the only one in this Saturday’s race guaranteed a berth should she choose to run.
That said, my top choice is Malathaat. She has been training forwardly for her return and is piloted by Joel Rosario, whom I consider the best rider in the country. The professionalism she displayed winning the Demoiselle last year speaks volumes, and as mentioned above, any improvement from her will be extremely dangerous. Pletcher sends them over fit & ready off the layoff.
Will’s Secret is going the right way, and I have the feeling we haven’t seen the best of this filly yet. I think when we look back, her Honeybee win at Oaklawn will pan out to be a strong race. She is tractable and can either go forward or rate from her outside gate.
Moon Swag chased two very nice fillies down in New Orleans in her last (Travel Column & Clairiere). She is definitely on the improve, and the price will be square.
Pass the Champagne gets honorable mention as she has a world of talent and looks to be any kind. I just question if she is ready for this right now, and at a shorter price, I will watch to see.
Simply Ravishing will need to prove
that she has bounced back from her last two efforts before I can back her at
shorter odds. Good Luck.
#5 Malathaat (9-5)
#6 Will’s Secret (7-2)
#4 Moon Swag (10-1)
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