Handicapper's Corner Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Apple Blossom Handicap Champion Showdown

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

 

Two champions will clash in what could be either a blossoming rivalry or the best matchup of the year. The Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park attracted six older fillies and mares, including Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver, plus Mexican champion Letruska.

 

 

 

Kudos to Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver's connections in not playing the ducking game and bringing their two titans together in, hopefully, one of multiple meetings.  Once upon a time, this was commonplace, yet over the decades, trainers and owners are timid and are too busy looking at the bottom line instead of remembering the basics of horse racing. “I bet my horse can beat yours.”

Ok, speech over. Let’s get to it.

 

When was the last time MONOMOY GIRL lost a race? That was in 2018 when she was taken down on the DQ for drifting in on Midnight Bisou, who earned Champion Older mare honors the following year. Before that, we have to go back to Monomoy Girl’s 2-year-old season, when she finished second, bested a neck in the Golden Rod (G2). The small chink in Monomoy Girl’s armor is that she hasn’t raced since February.

SWISS SKYDIVER lost to Monomoy Girl in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Toss that race. Swiss Skydiver stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance. Before that race, she beat Kentucky Derby winner Authentic in the Preakness. The Ken McPeek trainee tuned up for the Apple Blossom with an easy victory in the Beholder Mile (G1). All systems go.

LETRUSKA won two legs of the Mexican Triple Crown for fillies, missing the first leg since it was for Mexican-breds. She carried her form to the U.S. and won the Shuvee (G3) and the Houston Ladies Classic (G3). More recently, she missed the win in the Azeri Stakes (G2), beaten a head by Shedaresthedevil.  Should either of the top mares stub a hoof, Letruska could be right there.

GETRIDOFWHATAILESU finished third, bested two lengths by Letruska in the Azeri Stakes. She’s the local horse, having finished in the money in all five starts at Oaklawn. The Brad Cox trainee is a deep closer, so if the pace is fast, look to her late to pick up the pieces.

CHANCE TO SHINE has finished behind Monomoy Girl and Getridofwhatailesu.  She’s an Optional Claiming/overnight stakes type. Nothing wrong with that, and she’s been in the money 12 of 18 starts. She just isn’t in the class of the others.

So what happened to ANOTHER BROAD in the Bayakoa Stakes (G3) in February? She was off slow, trailed the entire way, some 18 lengths back, and jogged across the finish line, 31+ lengths behind Monomoy Girl. The 6-year-old mare has lost a step. She finishes third now and then and even placed in the Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3) in 2019 but hasn’t won a race in two years. Another Broad has earned $408,543 in her 24-race career. She has the class and bloodlines to be a good broodmare.

 

Analysis

So, are you Team Monomoy Girl or Team Swiss Skydiver? Or do you want them to dead heat for the win?  Yeah, me too.

I see Letruska setting the pace, with the two champs hovering. This is very much a jocks race between Geroux and Albarado. Monomoy Girl benefits from the outside post, while Albarado will have to get Swiss Skydiver in the clear. Geroux could easily block or pin Albarado in until late. Either way, we hope to see a thrilling head n’ head battle down the stretch.

#6 MONOMOY GIRL (1-1)

#2 SWISS SKYDIVER (2-1)

#3 LETRUSKA (4-1)