Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Arkansas Derby (G1)

 An Arkansas Encore - The Tour to Louisville Continues

By: Alex Sausville, Off-the-Turf Podcast

As the final weekend of Kentucky Derby points races arrives, the spotlight shifts back to Oaklawn Park, where a group of familiar three-year-olds will offer one more challenge to Concert Tour, another of Bob Baffert’s star contenders for the run for the roses.

 

The Arkansas Derby (G1), a race that in the past would conclude the states “Fifth Season,” is now the center point of a meet that continues its exceptional racing schedule all the way to the first Sunday in May.

 

Following a dominant effort by Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes (G2), the challenges will look very similar in the Arkansas Derby, plus a bump in graded value. With a field of six lined up on Saturday, four of the five challengers came out of last month’s Rebel Stakes, with Last Samurai coming 2nd up out of a 5th place effort in the Southwest. 

This event looks like another low-hanging fruit for the Bob Baffert barn. Despite the injury of 2020 winner Nadal prior to last year’s Kentucky Derby, Baffert's other two winners of the Arkansas Derby include Bodemeister and the great American Pharoah, two horses who performed extremely well during the Triple Crown series.

Prior to the Rebel, the main challenge for Concert Tour was viewed to come at the hands of Smarty Jones Stakes winner, Caddo River. The son of Hard Spun produced a dominant ten length triumph for his first stakes win and came into the Rebel as the narrow favorite over Concert Tour. 

Many believed that the two favorites would go at it from the start and potentially set it up for the late closers waiting in behind, and while they did go head to head early, only Caddo River came back to the field. 

Despite going head to head with Concert Tour at the start, Geroux was able to sit just off down the backstretch to get the trip he wanted. In a bigger field, there would be a much better chance for Caddo River to be able to not use up as much early speed and have someone apply pressure to Concert Tour. However, with such a small field, the only other speed who could make that difference would be if Get Her Number comes back a strong second off the layoff for Peter Miller.

This year’s Arkansas Derby may be Concert Tour’s race to win, but control of the race is a bit of a toss-up. One of the biggest things with seeing a field so familiar with each other is that the tactics most often will change. I will be expecting Concert Tour to face a much stronger challenge upfront, which should be coming from Get Her Number or even Caddo River if they think that is the only chance to challenge for contention. 

If the race works out the way I would hope, my eyes will land on Super Stock, a son of Dialed In who comes in second off the layoff and showed a little late kick in a fourth-place finish in the Rebel. It will be a tough challenge for him to find his way to the winner’s circle in a race controlled by Concert Tour; however I believe that the rest of the field will not follow the definition of insanity, and the Arkansas Derby will be vastly different tactic wise than we saw in the Rebel. If that ends up being the case, Super Stock is a great value play both underneath and to steal the show late.

 

My Bets:

$40 Exacta Box: 1,5

$20 Win - Super Stock

Total: $100

 

Final Thoughts:

The 2021 Arkansas Derby is a race not to get too crazy with. Despite the fact that I believe Super Stock could be great value in this spot, it will take some drastic changes in the race format to see Concert Tour falter. 

Whether Concert Tour is able to run his race or not, I still don’t see him finishing outside of the top two, and am hopeful that if he gets softened up towards that extra 1/16th of a mile, that Super Stock could be the one to sneak by late. Despite some talented horses' efforts, it would take too much of a tactic change from the others in the field who aren’t capable of softening him up for them to be the ones at the line.

Short field or not, the Arkansas Derby continues to be one of the most influential Kentucky Derby prep races on the calendar. The stars come out in full force during the Oaklawn meet and continue to shine as the season progresses. If Concert Tour can continue his winning ways this Saturday, the Baffert trend promises great opportunities with the three main events on the horizon.