Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Ashland Stakes (G1)

 Contentious Ashland Stakes Could Produce Kentucky Oaks Winner

By: Stuart deVoe

For the eighty-fourth time, Keeneland Race Course will present The $400k Central Bank Ashland (G1) - its signature race for 3-year-old fillies this Saturday.  Invariably, this 1 1/16-mile test is viewed in the context of being a prep race for the 2021 Kentucky Oaks (G1), which will take place four weeks hence.  It makes sense.  After all, if you own a quality 3-year-old filly this time of year, the Oaks is always the goal.  In fact, thirty-four fillies who raced in the Ashland have gone on to win the Oaks, with Monomoy Girl being the last. 

For those of us inclined to put a wager or two down this Saturday - we must ensure we narrow our focus to THIS event for what it is and not let our thoughts bleed into what we think will happen on the Friday before the first Saturday in May.  We will worry about that race, the Kentucky Oaks, when the time is right and now is not that time.   Now is the time for the Ashland!  This handicapper is expecting a fast track and sunny skies.

Here is a look at the field:

    1.   Curlin’s Catch (8-1) – Mark Casse/Chris Landeros:  This $430k OBS April purchase had progressed nicely this winter, winning her maiden in a one-turn mile event at Gulfstream and then backing that effort up with a win in Tampa Bay Down’s Suncoast – a two-turn test.  In her third start this year, Curlin’s Catch regressed.  It was in the G2 Davona Dale back at the 1-turn Gulfstream mile.  It also was her third race in less than 60 days, usually a tall task in today’s racing landscape.  She, in fact, broke a bit flat-footed, was asked by her jockey to be forward and never really responded to urging entering the far turn.  Now she is back with three works under her belt since her poor effort and would have to rebound in a big way.  A bit of a reach.

    2.   Pass the Champagne (4-1) – George Weaver/Javier Castellano:  This miss was privately purchased after her first race placing in a maiden race at Gulfstream.  Her talent was evident that day as she found trouble a few times and still ran on well. Subsequently, she broke her maiden rather professionally in her second start.  Now, she will try winners, graded stakes company, and two turns for the first time.  George Weaver is 17% first-time routing.  The talent is there, but those are a lot of new obstacles in which to overcome.  Talented – yes.  Is she ready – maybe…  Possible.

    3.   Simply Ravishing (5-2) – Kenny McPeek/Luis Saez:  Already having won a Grade 1 at this track and distance, this miss is the class of the field.  She may have gone to the well a few too many times at the end of her 2-year-old campaign as she started with three wins in as many starts, but followed up with a pair of fourth-place finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) (also at KEE) and Churchill’s Golden Rod (G2).  Since she is the class and is proven at the track and distance, she must be considered a player.  Contender.

    4.   Moon Swag (10-1) – Brendan Walsh/Adam Beschizza:  After racking up two third-place finishes at the Fair Grounds this winter behind top Oaks contenders in Clairiere & Travel Column, this Malibu Moon filly ships up hoping to break through.  She does have two-turn and graded race experience, both a plus.  She also has a rising star trainer in Brendan Walsh who seems to put live horses on the track.  Moon Swag is improving at the right time but will need a solid pace to close into to get her picture taken.  She may get it.  Longshot chance.

    5.   Malathaat (9/5) – Todd Pletcher/Joel Rosario:  Shadwell Stable reached for just over $1 million for this daughter of Curlin as a yearling at the Keeneland September Sale.  She has yet to disappoint with a three-for-three 2-year-old campaign that was capped off with a victory in Aqueduct’s 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2).  In that event, Malathaat took the worst of it from a trip perspective.  She was pinned on the sloppy rail much of the race and got shuffled back behind a tiring foe around the far turn.  Once loose, she ran down a nice one in Millefeuille (second in this year’s Gulfstream Park Oaks) and put her ears up under the wire. If she has any progression from a 2-year-old to a 3-year-old, watch out!  Oh, you also get Joel Rosario, who just seems to cross the country and swoop up wins no matter where he rides.  Win contender.

    6.    Will’s Secret (7/2) – Dallas Stewart/Jon Court:  Riding a three-race win streak of her own, Will’s Secret has made all the right moves wintering in Hot Springs, Arkansas.  After breaking her maiden at Fair Grounds, Will’s Secret’s last two races were both two-turn stakes, the latter being the Honeybee (G3).  In that event, she rated on the lead through tepid fractions before going on and holding all at bay in the stretch.  She galloped out well and looked no worse for wear.  Dallas Stewart knows how to train a good one and most likely will have her ready.  Win Contender.

Analysis

Although it is important to look at the Ashland as a stand-alone event, the fact remains that at least four of these fillies, Curlin’s Catch, Malathaat, Moon Swag, and Simply Ravishing, need to finish in the exacta to ensure a spot in the 14-horse Kentucky Oaks starting gate next month.  Will’s Secret, currently fourth on the Oaks point list (60pts), is the only one in this Saturday’s race guaranteed a berth should she choose to run. 

That said, my top choice is Malathaat.  She has been training forwardly for her return and is piloted by Joel Rosario, whom I consider the best rider in the country.  The professionalism she displayed winning the Demoiselle last year speaks volumes, and as mentioned above, any improvement from her will be extremely dangerous.  Pletcher sends them over fit & ready off the layoff.     

Will’s Secret is going the right way, and I have the feeling we haven’t seen the best of this filly yet.  I think when we look back, her Honeybee win at Oaklawn will pan out to be a strong race.  She is tractable and can either go forward or rate from her outside gate. 

Moon Swag chased two very nice fillies down in New Orleans in her last (Travel Column & Clairiere).  She is definitely on the improve, and the price will be square. 

Pass the Champagne gets honorable mention as she has a world of talent and looks to be any kind.  I just question if she is ready for this right now, and at a shorter price, I will watch to see. 

 Simply Ravishing will need to prove that she has bounced back from her last two efforts before I can back her at shorter odds.  Good Luck.

#5 Malathaat (9-5)

#6 Will’s Secret (7-2)

#4 Moon Swag (10-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3)

Travel Column, Clairiere hook up in Rachel Alexandra Stakes 

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power 

The competition for 2021 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points heats up with the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3). The contest ups the stakes to 50 points to the winner, with a 20-10-5 tier to second through fourth place.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes, named for the 2009 Champion 3-year-old Filly and Horse of the Year, is the second of three Kentucky Oaks prep races held at the Fair Grounds. The listed Silverbulletday Stakes and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) are the others. Three fillies have completed the Rachel Alexandra Stakes/Kentucky Oaks double in the last decade, and two Rachel Alexandra winners finished third in the Oaks.

The 1 1/16-mile contest initially attracted nine 3-year-old fillies; however, Silverbulletday Stakes, heroine Charlie’s Penny was scratched due to a small bone fracture. She is expected to return to training after a three-month layoff.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes is led by the Golden Rod (G2) winner and runner-up, Travel Column and Clairiere. The Silverbulletday Stakes, runner up Souper Sensational, and third-place finisher Moon Swag will stretch to two turns for the first time.

 

Let’s take a closer look at the fillies.

TRAVEL COLUMN (Frosted - Swingit, by Victory Gallop) is the only graded stakes winner in the field. The pretty gray filly won the Golden Rod Stakes despite a slow start and being bottled up in the stretch. Once she got clear, she ran down  Clairiere to win by a length. The Brad Cox trainee is making her 3-year-old debut in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Two of the last three winners, including Cox’s Monomoy Girl (2018), won this race off a layoff.

Travel Column is bred to handle nine furlongs and farther. Her half-brother Neolithic is multiple Grade 1 stakes-placed at nine and ten furlongs. Their dam Swingit is a multiple stakes-winning turf miler.

CLAIRIERE (Curlin - Cavorting, by Bernardini) looked home free in the Golden Rod until the more experienced Travel Column passed her within a furlong of the wire. Her trainer, Steve Asmussen, conditioned last year’s Rachel Alexandra heroine Finite.

Clairiere, a daughter of Curlin, is the first foal out of the multiple Grade 1 winner, Cavorting. The mare earned $2,063,000 in 13 starts from six to nine furlongs.

 

SOUPER SENSATIONAL (Curlin - Kateri, by Indian Charlie)  put forth a reasonable effort in her switch from Polytrack to the Fair Ground’s dirt to finish second in the Silverbulletday Stakes after a wide trip. She appeared once-paced through the stretch but owns a 101 late-pace speed figure, the highest in the field. 

Souper Sensational’s dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning millionaire Tiz Miss Sue and 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint hero Bulletin.

 

MOON SWAG (Malibu Moon - Yara, by Put It Back) finished third in the Silverbulletday, bested by four lengths, although she made up ground on Souper Sensational.

Moon Swag’s full brother Heavy Roller hit the board in a pair of stakes at Assiniboia. However, their dam is a Grade 2 winning miler, and this is the family of Healthy Addiction and her accomplished daughter My Sweet Addiction, both Grade 1 winners. Moon Swag should appreciate the extra distance here.

 

ZOOM UP (Upstart - Open Agenda, by More Than Ready) is ready to do just that after beating winners by a handy two lengths in an Allowance Optional Claimer in her last start. Her Brisnet speed figures are moderate, but it’s time for this Tom Amoss trainee to test the graded stakes waters.

The daughter of Razorback Handicap hero Upstart is a half-sister to multiple stakes placed turf sprinter What'sontheagenda.

 

OFF WE GO  (Air Force Blue - Conquest Strate Up, by Not Bourbon) is the second of a trio of Rachel Alexandra Stakes fillies conditioned by Tom Amoss. Off We Go closed in the slop in her last start to miss by 3/4-length. She passed the pacesetter after the wire. The extra distance should suit Off We Go, but her speed figures are on the low side.

By European Champion 2-year-old out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter, one would think Off We Go would have a promising future on turf. She may wind up there eventually. Off We Go’s second dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and prominent sire Curlin.

 

LITTLESTITIOUS (Ghostzapper - Broadway Play, by Quality Road) (6/1). The Tom Amoss trainee showed speed and fade in the Silverbulletday and faded to fifth. It was the first time she’s finished out of the money in her six-race career.  So did she regress after her huge ten-length victory in the My Trusty Cat Stakes at Delta Downs, or is she out of her league?

Littlestitious is bred to progress with maturity and should love the extra distance. Her dam is a half-sister to Broadway Empire, a multiple Grade-3 winner at 1 1/8-miles and 1 1/36-miles.

 

BECCA'S ROCKET (Orb - Idoitmyway, by Unbridled's Song) brings her game on every surface. She’s a winner over turf and mud and has finished second on dirt. The free-running filly tuned up for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes with a 3/4-length victory at a mile over Sam Houston’s turf course. She graduated at the Fair Grounds last year with a 4 1/4-length victory in the slop.  Becca's Rocket

Becca's Rocket is a half-sister to a trio of stakes earners, the winning sprinter Star Student, Grade 2-placed turf miler Another Time and stakes-placed turf miler Muchmorethanthis.

 

Becca's Rocket does her best work on the front end. She’ll try to take them gate to wire in her 2-turn debut. Definitely a speed/fade candidate. She may be joined on the front end by Zoom Up, with Littlestitious not far behind. Travel Column, Off We Go, and Souper Sensational have tactical speed. Joe Talamo takes over the reins on Clairiere, and she may show a little more zip from post 1.

 

#1 CLAIRIERE (5-2)

#8 TRAVEL COLUMN (2-1)

#2 SOUPER SENSATIONAL (8-1)

#3 MOON SWAG (#15-1)