Los Alamitos Futurity Selections and Picks
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The 2020 Los Alamitos Futurity a/k/a Cashcall Futurity a/k/a Hollywood Futurity was downgraded to a Grade 2 this year, but it’s still the last graded race of the year held for 2-year-old colts. The top four finishers receive a scale of 10-4-2-1 points towards inclusion in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. None of the competitors in the 1 1/16-mile event will race on Lasix.
Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown races. Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Bob Baffert has a stranglehold on the Bob Baffert Futur…uh, Los Al Futurity. He’s stood in the winners’ circle for six straight years, completing the exacta three times. Overall, Baffert has sent out the Los Alamitos Futurity winner a dozen times since 1981. This year, he saddles multiple Grade 1-placed Spielberg.
Let’s review the field from the rail out.
#1 RED FLAG (1/1) outclassed the Bob Hope (G3) field by 7 1/4-lengths, which included Spielberg and Weston. Red Flag was on the outside of an early cavalry charge of a quartet that included Spielberg and Weston. Taking command just before the top of the stretch, Red Flag cantered home under a hand ride. The John Shirreffs trainee should have no difficulty handling two turns. Red Flag is a son of first-crop sire Tamarkuz (Spightstown), and his half-sister Surrender Now is a stakes-winning sprinter.
#2 PETRUCHIO (4/1) has shown ability over turf and dirt. It took him four starts to find the winner’s circle, but now that he’s figured things out, things, including his Brisnet speed figures, are looking up. The son of Into Mischief is a first foal. His dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 3-winning sprinter/miler Matrooth (Distorted Humor), who was third in 2015 Cigar Mile (G1) and 2018 Stephen Foster (G1). Their half-brother Rule raced for five years, winning from eight to nine furlongs, including the G2 Monmouth Cup. Petruchio’s second dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby hero Funny Cide, who is also by Distorted Humor.
#3 THE GREAT ONE (15/1) isn’t living up to his name. He’s the “why” horse of this short field. Nyquist’s son had a fading view of Weston’s hindquarters two starts back, finishing 13 lengths behind. Last time out on turf, the Doug O’Neil trainee set moderate fractions, but was passed late in the stretch. The Great one is out of the veteran mare Little Miss Protocol, who ruled Louisiana-bred stakes from 2011 – 2014, earning $731,290 in 30 starts.
#4 WESTON (10/1) beat Dr. Schivel in their debut, and he won the Best Pal (G2) over a weak field, but was outclassed in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) by that rival and in the Bob Hope Stakes by (G3) Red Flag. The Ryan Hanson trainee is a son of first-crop sire Hit it a Bomb, winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). The stallion’s offspring have only four wins from 35 starts over dirt. Weston’s dam Elke (Union Rags) is a multiple stakes-placed sprinter/miler on dirt and turf, and her offspring are capable over all surfaces. Weston is her first blacktype earner in the U.S; his half-sister Miss Segovia is listed placed in Panama. Perhaps Weston will give turf a try next year.
#5 POSITIVITY (8/1) has done well against restricted stakes types. In his first start for Paddy Gallagher and first off the layoff, this son of Paynter raced in second-place much of the way in the seven-furlong Golden State Juvenile Stakes, letting the pacesetter get away to a three-length lead. Positivity picked it up in late stretch to close the gap by 3/4-length and passed just after the wire. It was an improved effort, speed figure wise, over previous starts. Positivity’s second dam Sam’s Sunny Halo, is a restricted stakes-winning sprinter.
#6 SPIELBERG (5/2) is Bob Baffert’s million-dollar baby. He has only one victory in five starts but hit the board in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah Stakes (G1). After finding a field of maidens he could beat, this son of Union Rags didn’t like the pressure of being between horses in the Bob Hope (G3) and backed up to fourth place. That’s ok, ‘cause he’s shown talent and has classic breeding, meaning he should improve next year. Spielberg is the first blacktype earner in his immediate family. His dam Miss Squeal (Smart Strike) is a half-sister to a trio of stakes winners; 2017 Curlin Stakes winner Outplay, Raconteur, winner of the 1-mile Private Terms Stakes, and Katerburg, a listed-winning turf miler. There’s a ton of class in Spielberg’s third generation, including Grade 1 winner Clear Mandate, whose descendants include Grade 1 winner and sire Strong Mandate. Japanese champion older mare To the Victory and Spinster (G1) heroine Romantic Vision are part of the family.
Race Keys
In the last decade:
· Favorites have placed first or second in nine of the last ten editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity.
· Pace pressers/setters rule. Two one-run closers were successful.
· Eight of the last ten Alamitos Futurity won their last start.
· Eight of ten winners were stakes winners or stakes placed in previous starts.
Only three runners fit the profile of previous Los Alamitos Futurity winners; our even-money favorite Red Flag, Positivity, who placed second against state-breds, and last-out maiden winner Petruchio.
All six colts have a pace press/setter running style, so this is very much a jockey’s race early. Red Flag has tactical speed, and he’s fast enough to keep from being blocked on the rail.
Many may criticize handicapper writers for picking the favorite, yet complain when they don’t, and the favorite wins. I say, pick the horse you think is best and go from there.
#1 RED FLAG (1/1)
#5 POSITIVITY (8/1)
#6 SPIELBERG (5/2)
#2 PETRUCHIO (4/1)
Handigambing:
The term “bridgejumper” in betting means a bettor who places a huge wager on the low-odds favorite, usually for third place. That $2.10 return won’t net much unless the bettor is throwing $10,000 or more at the wager, hoping for a $500+ return.
This kind of bet causes higher than usual show returns on the rest of the field, and the show pool is higher than the win pool. If the favorite fails to hit the board, the bridgejumper goes hunting for a bridge to climb over while the fortunate players who bet the top three finishers are rewarded, sometimes handsomely.
The last time I went off a bridge, I was 17 and dove off the seven-mile bridge (the old one) on the way back from Key West. There was an accident on the two-lane bridge, and traffic would be tied up for most of the day. It was hot, and in my defense, the bar on Knight’s Key was calling my name.
But I digress. If you have money burning a hole in your pocket and think Red Flag can be beaten (anything can and does happen in a race), toss a few dollars on the other five horses in the field. You have a 60% chance of cashing in.
No comments:
Post a Comment