Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Cigar Mile (G1)

 Cigar Mile Handicap - a race where age is just a number

By: Michael Amo, Thorofan

Although no snow is expected for Saturday in New York City, there will be plenty of rain. With rain beginning mid-day on Friday and continuing through post-time the track will likely be very muddy. Footing and splash back are two obstacles the horses will have to overcome to win. At this time there is a full field of nine. 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, weather conditions likely will promulgate some scratches. Here is the field:

 

 

1.       Performer (Speightstown) has the inside post and shows some early speed. Will likely try to get out ahead of the field for safer trip. He has not run that well on muddy going. Although a serious contender on paper, success is unlikely.

 

2.       Mind Control (Stay Thirsty) has not return to his form of 2019. May not be fast enough for this talented field. Backed up over a muddy track this summer in Saratoga. Deserves his long shot status.

 

3.       Snapper Sinclair (City Zip) coming up in class. Ran in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, finishing 4^th. Needs to return to that form to be competitive. 

 

4.       Firenze Fire (Poseidon’s Warrior) has tactical speed and may show up late to challenge. If he duplicates his Vosburgh performance, he will be in the money and could even win. His enemy in the race is the weather and the muddy track.

 

5.       Mr. Buff (Friend Or For) showed his ability in the last race for New York breds. He and True Timber are the senior citizens in the race at age 6. His tactical speed and acceptance of a muddy track should position him well for the race. The mile may be his best distance. Stepping into open company will be his biggest hurdle –a play at the right price.

 

6.       King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) has been off seven months. He was pointed toward the Kentucky Derby when an injury caused him to miss the race. He is working really well and could be in the money.

 

7.       Majestic Dunhill (Majesticperfection) drops 14 lbs. from his last race. Has a quick foot in the stretch. If he is in contention at the top of the stretch, he might surprise. He didn’t seem to like his race over a sloppy track, finishing off by eleven lengths. Big question mark.

 

8.       True Timber (Mineshaft) is a Calumet runner who has been trying grade one races with little success. He ran 3^rd in last year’s Cigar Mile. 

 

9.       Bon Raison (Raison d’Etat) is another Calumet runner that will be closing. He is working perfectly after a terrible showing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Very quick in the stretch. However, needs more pace than will likely be in this race. Light weight with a chance for the exotics.

 

 

Predicting the winner of this year’s Cigar Mile (GI) will be determined a great deal by the weather, the condition of the track and post positions. There may be a few scratches announced on Saturday morning that could change the dynamics of the race. Given these risks it is unwise to take a low odds horse in a race where anything can happen.

 

Looking for some value, leads to the following selections:

1.       Mr. Buff (#5)

2.       Firenze Fire (#4)

3.       Performer (#1)

4.       Snapper Sinclair (#3)

 

HANDIGAMBLE PLAY:

$20 win on # 5 Mr. Buff --------------------------$20.00

$40 place on #5 Mr. Buff--------------------------$40.00

$5 Exacta Part Wheel #5 with #1, #3 and #4--$15.00

$1 Trifecta box #1, #3, #4 and #5 ----------------$24.00