Cigar Mile Handicap - a race where age is just a number
By: Michael Amo, Thorofan
Although no snow is expected for Saturday in New York City,
there will be plenty of rain. With rain beginning mid-day on Friday and
continuing through post-time the track will likely be very muddy. Footing and
splash back are two obstacles the horses will have to overcome to win. At this
time there is a full field of nine.
Unfortunately, weather conditions likely
will promulgate some scratches. Here is the field:
1.Performer (Speightstown) has the inside
post and shows some early speed. Will likely try to get out ahead of the field
for safer trip. He has not run that well on muddy going. Although a serious
contender on paper, success is unlikely.
2.Mind Control (Stay Thirsty) has not
return to his form of 2019. May not be fast enough for this talented field.
Backed up over a muddy track this summer in Saratoga. Deserves his long shot
status.
3.Snapper Sinclair (City Zip) coming up in
class. Ran in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, finishing 4th. Needs
to return to that form to be competitive.
4.Firenze Fire (Poseidon’s Warrior) has
tactical speed and may show up late to challenge. If he duplicates his Vosburgh
performance, he will be in the money and could even win. His enemy in the race
is the weather and the muddy track.
5.Mr. Buff (Friend Or For) showed his
ability in the last race for New York breds. He and True Timber are the senior
citizens in the race at age 6. His tactical speed and acceptance of a muddy
track should position him well for the race. The mile may be his best distance.
Stepping into open company will be his biggest hurdle –a play at the right
price.
6.King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) has been off
seven months. He was pointed toward the Kentucky Derby when an injury caused
him to miss the race. He is working really well and could be in the money.
7.Majestic Dunhill (Majesticperfection) drops
14 lbs. from his last race. Has a quick foot in the stretch. If he is in
contention at the top of the stretch, he might surprise. He didn’t seem to like
his race over a sloppy track, finishing off by eleven lengths. Big question
mark.
8.True Timber (Mineshaft) is a Calumet
runner who has been trying grade one races with little success. He ran 3rd
in last year’s Cigar Mile.
9.Bon Raison (Raison d’Etat) is another
Calumet runner that will be closing. He is working perfectly after a terrible
showing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Very quick in the stretch. However,
needs more pace than will likely be in this race. Light weight with a chance
for the exotics.
Predicting the winner of this year’s Cigar Mile (GI) will be
determined a great deal by the weather, the condition of the track and post
positions. There may be a few scratches announced on Saturday morning that
could change the dynamics of the race. Given these risks it is unwise to take a
low odds horse in a race where anything can happen.
Looking for some value,
leads to the following selections:
1.Mr. Buff (#5)
2.Firenze Fire (#4)
3.Performer (#1)
4.Snapper Sinclair (#3)
HANDIGAMBLE PLAY:
$20 win on # 5 Mr. Buff --------------------------$20.00
$40 place on #5 Mr. Buff--------------------------$40.00
$5 Exacta Part Wheel #5 with #1, #3 and #4--$15.00
$1 Trifecta box #1, #3, #4 and #5 ----------------$24.00
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. I'd like to thank The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me an opportunity to share my thoughts with you. To those of you unaware, Thorofan is a national organization created specifically to serve the horse racing fan. If you are looking for other like minded racing fans, look no further than The Thorofan.
The Turk cashed zippo tickets on the past two Triple Crown races. I could tell you how close I was to winning and winning big, but that's loser talk. My handicapping of some of the longer shots was a bit off but my bet construction was dead on. I built bets with favorites and long shots interspersed in the Superfecta. You won't hit all your bets, but that doesn't mean your process was wrong. Have a plan and follow a plan. Consistency in betting is the key to breaking even and scratching out positive ROI. Everything is against you as a horseplayer: Be honest with yourself, study your ROI, understand the impact of takeout, and treat your betting capital like the precious commodity it is.
The Turk likes the handicap division* because he loves to see the large amount of data in the Past Performances. The asterisk is that the handicap division is a watered down shell of what it was a decade ago. The best are off to the breeder's shed and there are just fewer horses overall. The purpose of this blog isn't to give cutting edge commentary on the state of the sport, its to handicap and build bets on who is racing, so while I may miss the days of past, it doesn't change what I do overall.
Let's get after this!
The Turk has been a big Santa Anita player, especially since the return to dirt, but even I have been a bit soured by field sizes and consistency over this Winters Meet. I was happy to see the news that Mr. Stronach was sending his fixer, Tim Ritvo to Santa Anita to fix this horse racing gem.
Today's race, the Santa Anita Gold Cup, is a Grade 1 with 9 runners over the dirt at the classic distance of 1 1/4 Miles. There are 12 starts in this field at that distance and one win. Let's take a look at a few of the competitors.
The Californian Grade 2 (April 22) ; A five horse field at 1 1/8 Miles
The Tokyo City Grade 3 (2 April); a six horse field at 1 1/2 Miles
Not a prep but San Pasquale Grade 2 at 1 1/16 (January 1 2017)
Santa Anita Handicap G1 (March 11) 1 1/4 Miles
Alysheba Stakes Grade 2 at CD 5 May 2017 at 1 1/16 Miles
Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2 at Oaklawn (15 April 2017)
Not a prep but Cupid's last good start West Virginia Derby Grade 2 (August 6, 2016)
Takeaways: Small fields and a lot of off tracks this Winter! The only horse making a start off a win is Hard Aces, who won the marathon distance Tokyo City over Big John B by a neck. Hard Aces and Big John B collectively have 82 starts. Journeymen, not stars, fill the cards in the handicap division. I digress.
By all measures, Midnight Storm at six years old is the class of the group. He'll be on the lead with Cupid and perhaps American Freedom. I think those two will both crack and fade. It may set up one of the many one run horses who will be coming hard at the pace.
Accelerate has been training well at Santa Anita although he doesn't win much lately. No wins in 3 2017 starts, no wins in six starts at Santa Anita. I like him in the top three, perhaps Place.
A Quality Road 5 year old, Follow Me Crev, is in the same group as Accelerate. He'll make one run and it just depends on early pace and if Midnight Storm can finish or not. He's also training well at Santa Anita but his barn hasn't won a graded stakes in sometime. Place or Show.
Cupid is the class of the race, a $900,000 2014 Keeneland purchase, who had a nice run in 2016 with minor Derby's before cracking in the PA Derby in September, and he's been on the shelf since. A bit slow but he has won at Santa Anita and his trainer Baffert placed him here, with a track record over the past year of 28% winners on 180+ layoffs. I'm not sold on the Top Four for without more work to show me. Cover/not Cover: It's the biggest decision you will make at the windows.
I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this yet. If forced for early thoughts I'll single Midnight Storm and have a group of horses including Follow Me Crev, Accelerate and Cupid in Place and Show with American Freedom and Big John B in the Exotic spot. I'm not sure about the value of the bet until I see the tote board and ultimately may just pass on betting depending on scratches.
Shaman Ghost a Reluctant Choice in Santa Anita 'Cap
By: Reinier Macatangay, ThoroFan Member
Years ago, the Santa Anita Handicap (GI) was the premiere spring
race for older horses to point towards. Then about a decade ago, the Dubai
World Cup (GI) (now worth $10 million) sprang up overseas and began to weaken
the race. The “Big Cap” is still important today, but is seen as a lesser event
now by the media and most fans.
Unless the trainer is conservative, the top-of-the-line stars are probably
going to take the Pegasus World Cup (GI) to Dubai route, just as
division-leader Arrogate is doing this year.
Nevertheless, the show goes on, and a field of nine horses are set to run 1 ¼
miles on the Santa Anita main track this Saturday to compete for a $750,000
purse.
The bulk of wagering dollars will go towards Midnight Storm, who possesses
excellent speed and owns a two-race win streak. The 6-year-old horse also has
won five out of his last six starts, with the one loss coming in the Breeders’
Cup Mile (GI). For those who follow TimeformUS, his recent numbers are dominant
compared to this field.
So what is the problem?
His only attempt at 10 furlongs resulted in a 36-length drubbing in the 2015
Pacific Classic (GI). A more forgiving handicapper might reason Midnight Storm
improved since then, but the fact is still a concern. If trainer Phil D’Amato
had confidence in Midnight Storm going longer, he would try his horse 1 ¼ miles
or 10 furlongs more often.
The Pacific Classic remains Midnight Storm’s only attempt at going farther than
nine furlongs.
For convinced skeptics, the main alternative is Shaman Ghost, the 5-year-old
horse who comes into this race off a runner-up finish to Arrogate in the
Pegasus at Gulfstream Park.
Trained by Jimmy Jerkens, Shaman Ghost is regularly entered in longer races. He
even won the Brooklyn Handicap (GII) at 12 furlongs, as well as the 1 ¼-mile
Queen’s Plate at Woodbine. East coast rider Javier Castellano flies across the
country for this mount, which is nice. It would be a long way to travel for a
clunker.
Can he overcome the pace scenario?
It is hard to predict. Shaman Ghost might be encouraged to pick up his feet
earlier, as Castellano is great at judging pace, but it could also flatten out
his late run. Shaman Ghost could also stay patient and hope Midnight Storm
quits.
If someone put a gun to this handicapper’s head and forced a decision, Shaman
Ghost would get the slight nod because of his reliability at the distance. He
certainly does not get a confident nod. Just a slight nod.
Two other legitimate contenders are Imperative on the far outside, and Follow
Me Crev.
Most racing fans know Imperative. Once in a while, he fires with a nice effort.
The now 7-year-old gelding also tends to pick up checks, as good closers pass
tired horses if nothing else.
The 5-year-old gelding Follow Me Crev looks a little more exciting because he
is not a familiar horse to the casual bettor. Yet, his 121 TimeformUS Speed
Figure in the Feb. 20 race is fast and not too far away from the top horses.
For those hoping for a mega longshot, Gangster is not the worst stab at 30-1.
Just make sure to limit him to underneath slots.
Not every race is a good race to handicap or bet though, and this Big Cap
presents a lot of question marks while offering little value. Think about
whether this is the right race before pouring money into verticals.
Handigambling ($100):
Rather than give a weak suggestion, I’m going to pass on betting.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now entering our ninth year of giving unsolicited horse racing handicaps to people who never asked for them. Today the Turk has the honor of writing the handicap for The Pegasus World Cup Invitational, a $12,000,000 purse doozy of a Grade 1 race. I'd be remiss if right out of the gate I don't thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner for allowing me this pulpit to ramble from.
The hip bloggers like to criticize. The Turk ain't hip (in case you didn't know, 3rd person references are oh so not hip.) This inaugural Pegasus Invitational to me seemed like a real revolutionary idea, not a complete game changer because you couldn't do too many of these without upsetting the natural order of the racing calendar and dates, but still a real unique idea to develop another destination day for fans of the sport between the Breeders' Cup in early November and the Kentucky Derby in May. Because of the decentralized nature of horse racing, anyone who steps outside the lines gets criticized, and The Stronach Group took plenty of criticism for the event. There is a rant that relates perfectly to horse racing, the definition of insanity is.....blah blah blah. I'm old enough to remember horse racing still as culturally relevant sport in the 1970's. I'm old enough to remember the beauty of Hialeah and I shake my head at the loss of Hollywood. The sport is dying but critics keep on doing what they do best.
What about this race? The idea was announced May 12, 2016. For this race which replaces the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the traditional first Handicap Division Grade 1 of the Winter Season, 12 spots in the starting gate were sold for $1.0 Million each, with all participants sharing equally the net income (net: expenses paid first) from handle, media rights and sponsorship's. The purse was purely raised by the participants. For a track like Gulfstream, the scene of Saturday's race, this will have the effect of a second Florida Derby, by far the premier date in the South Florida tracks calendar every year. According to Tim Ritvo, President of Gulfstream and Chief Operating Officer of Stronach Group, Florida Derby is about $36.0 Million each year and the internal goal was to reach $40.0 Million for Saturday's card (TDN). That's meaningful, especially combined with other streams of revenue not normal to their business, parking and a general admission. Television, the big prize, is an interesting subject. How many of you realize the only three races that the networks pay for each year are the Triple Crown Races? That's it. Stronach Group is paying the network, NBC, to televise this event in the hopes that their is enough interest to create a television revenue stream in future years. (Let's just keep criticizing them though).
It did take until January 16th to fill the final two slots in the race. While California Chrome's connections were early slot purchaser's, the big buzz building action occurred on December 22, when Coolmore sold to Juddmonte a slot and Arrogate was then in the mix. Grade 1 winner Gun Runner, winner of Clark Handicap in late November, was penciled into the slot owned by Mick Ruis, but a EHV-1 quarantine at Fairgrounds, and an unwillingness by the connections to take a nose swap test (which has a 15% false positive rate) which if failed, would have forced the horse to be at risk standing around with other quarantined horses for 30 more days, was too big a risk to take (Paulick Report 1/22). It's unfortunate as this race could have used another relevant Grade 1 winner.
So while the number of opportunities to pull something like this off seem limited during a race calendar without throwing the conditions book a tizzy, this late January date has some intriguing possibilities. A horse running in this race ($12 Million) could use it as a prep for Dubai World Cup ($10 Million) and top his year with the Breeders' Cup Classic ($6 Million). That's a $28 Million dollar year. American Pharoah's connections, specifically Justin Zayat states they would have highly considered running the Triple Crown winner at four if Pegasus was an option (Ehalt.) Steve Asmussen says "I wish I had Curlin running next year" (Ehalt.) Baffert wishes he had Game On Dude. Paul Reddam, owner of Nyquist, bought a slot. Doug O'Neill, Nyquist's trainer says "It would be a dream come true to have a huge Breeders' Cup Classic performance and then look at the Pegasus. Anyone with a 3 Year Old or older top male is thinking that way" (Ehalt.) These are the biggest names in the sport and they realize that this race, if successful and if it becomes an annual fixture, might slow the run to the breeding shed a bit and keep those stars active in their fourth year.
If successful, the Pegasus could be the race that extends careers and provides a distraction in late January, especially on a slow before Super Bowl weekend. That's the idea. If I was going to criticize anything, it's the distance at 1 1/8 miles. The classic US dirt distance is 1 1/4 miles. The track: Running a 1 1/8 mile race on a 1 1/8 oval creates issues, namely the first turn is very close to the starting gate. The track will be speed favoring most likely. The break and where you go into and out of that first turn is most likely the key to handicapping this race. Handicapping this race is what I was asked to do and I've rambled quite a bit about the race because of the uniqueness of it, but the field, a real ugh. Arrogate, not traditionally a good starter. Baffert himself said "Out of the blocks, he doesn't fire away from there (the gate). He's got a tremendous stride, a tremendous kick and he does have speed" (Paulick 1/10). California Chrome is way out in gate 12. In between represents my biggest disappointment with North American racing, the dearth of quality handicap division horses.
With two huge favorites expected to go off much less than 2-1, I'm thinking betting strategy before I even handicap, typically a no-no in my rule book. I could spend a bunch of time trying to be a wise guy and and explain why Semper Fortis is flying under the radar, but instead I'm already thinking about lightly priced exotic tickets with Arrogate and Chrome covering the top spots and a few other runners mixed in at the bottom of the ticket. Risk/Reward. What are you willing to risk in betting capital and opportunity cost (the time handicapping this race when you can be handicapping a race with less sex appeal and more earnings appeal) and what is the reward. Do you see payouts that excite you with two heavy favorites 1-2 and someone from the field in 3 and 4? Me either. Yes, handle will be good and Will Pay suggests an investment expecting a positive ROI should cause you to take pause betting more than $45-50 on a $2 trifecta ticket. I'm not your mother, I don't care what you bet as you are a grown up, but what's the reward is a question you have to ask yourself.
Another thing I think Stronach deserves credit for: a 5 pound weight break if they run lasix free. One runner took them up on it, hopefully this trend will spread in the condition book.
Let's get after this!
I saw absolutely no reason to make much of a consideration for five of the entrants and for better or worse I tossed them. You can't cover everybody, or technically you can, but again, Risk/Reward. The larger the number of covers and the larger the bet cost, and I'm not hip (as we established early on) enough to make a decent wise guy case that War Envoy will be shocking the world. Class. Current Condition. Pace.Quality of Competition. The hallmarks of my handicapping style make me lean very heavy towards Chrome and Arrogate. They will be in the top four barring injury or some sort of unavoidable, horrible trip. And then there is that first turn. I'm focused purely on who will be forward positioned enough going into that first turn that they can make a late race mild rally to challenge for a spot in the ticket.
I'm not going to overthink this at all. I expect Chrome and Arrogate will challenge for the top spot. If forced to pick I give a slight edge to Arrogate and Mike Smith Up. Chrome has to move a long way over to not be too wide through the first turn. If it was classic distance I'd be more concerned about running out of gas, but the shorter distance should allow him to expend early or 1st corner energy.
I think Johnny V will have Pletcher's Neolitic near the front and on the rail through the first turn. That should set him up well to be part of cavalry charge at the end, maybe moving forward or backwards. Only horse in this race with 2 Gulfstream wins, an N1X (smh) in December.
I like Shaman Ghost quite a bit. What a boon to Ontario Racing and breeding if he would pull an upset here (and what a hoot if Stronach wins their own race.) Training well and winner of a watered down Woodward G1.
Keen Ice, Noble Bird and Breaking Lucky round out my contenders.
So what to do? Risk/Reward should govern us.
A Super High Five might look like this:
$2 Super High Five with 1-12 X 1-12 X 3-7-9-4-10 X 3-7-9-4-10 X 3-7-9-4-10 would cost $240. You'd cover your bet easily but this is no better than a scratch off lottery ticket.
A $2 Superfecta might look like this:
$2 Superfecta with 1-12 X 1-12 X 3-7-9-4-10 X 3-7-9-4-10 would cost $80.
A $2 Trifecta might look like this:
$2 Trifecta with 1-12 X 1-12 X 3-7-9-4-10 would cost $20.
I'll most likely assemble bets that look a bit like this: $2 Superfecta 1-12 X 1-12 X 3-7 X 3-7-9-4-10 for $32.
Have fun with it and whatever risk level you feel is appropriate.
Turk Out!
Works Cited: Ehalt, Bob "The Pegasus: The Growing World Wide buzz over a Race that could change the Economics of Racing." Thoroughbred Racing Commentary. Web 23 August 2016.
Paulick Report. "Gun Runner's Connections Opt Out of Pegasus World Cup Consideration" 22 January 2017. Web.
Paulick Report. "Baffert: Arrogate's Post Position draw in Pegasus 'Very Important' " 10 January 2017. Web.
Happy Thanksgiving and Welcome to The Turk and the Little Turk. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share the musings of an old school handicapper with you today. I've been blogging the Clark Handicap for many years and I'm reusing a post of mine from 5 years ago, 2011. I figure if the Zayatt's can reuse a runner from that day, Prayers for Relief, I could reuse this as well.
Before I go too far, I am thankful for the economic means that allows me to raise my family; I thank my employer. I thank my loving family. I cherish my friends, even though the introvert that I am doesn't make me a very social friend. I thank my pets. I of course, thank my God.
Baseball fans get all misty eyed talking about Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, and as a hockey fan, I was saddened to see our Buffalo Memorial Auditorium condemned and knocked down in the name of luxury suites and more concessions. There is something special about these old places; places you shared highs and lows with, maybe with your father, your friends, your girlfriend, now your wife, your children.
Fenway and Wrigley were built in 1911 and 1914 respectively. Churchill Downs has existed since 1875, with the iconic twin spires going up in 1895. The driving force behind the creation of the track was Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, grandson of the famous American explorer, General William Clark of the William and Clark expedition of 1804-1806, the first transcontinental expedition of the United States, and whose mother was from one of Kentucky's first and leading families, the Churchill's
.
At the age of 29, Meriwether Clark saw the first edition of this race run. As in all things in life, you don't really own something unless you really own it, and his mother's two brothers left the land to others after their death and Meriwether found himself as nothing more than a race steward by 1897. Already hurt deeply by poor financial investments, and followed by the loss of the track, Meriwether committed suicide in 1899 at the age of 53 years old. One can't help but think he stands along the rail along with all the other horse players we've said goodbye to over the years, players like Shawn Murphy, Rose Rizzo and Tiznow Reynolds. Our dead horse players watch these equine heroes run over the same route of dirt in South of Louisville like they been doing for the past 141 years.
I love old racetracks. I stare out at the track and I see and hear the ghosts of races past thundering up the stretch. The Clark Handicap is a tradition of mine, a wonderful post Thanksgiving Day event that I look forward too, an echo of the season that has essentially concluded, a harbinger of the coming winter, and a hint of handicap division to come once the sun returns.
Let's get after this!
I'm leaning towards Noble Bird being my fairly tepid Chalk. 3 of 4 in the money at Churchill Downs, 3 wins in 6 starts at the distance, a trainer-jock combo clipping along at a 29% win rate at CD, this on the lead runner has my nod and we'll see if he can hold what should be his lead at the top of the stretch.
Here's Noble Bird winning the G2 Hagyand Fayette at KEE in late October setting a track record in the process.
I sure like Gun Runner an awful lot, just another great son of Candy Ride (Arg). He won the G3 Matt Wynn here in June, his first back off Show in the Kentucky Derby. I'm not a big fan of first race back off Breeders' Cup efforts but I like the horse alot, he likes this track and he's 9 of 9 in the money on fast dirt.
Hopportunity is no stranger to the race and he's coming in off an outclassed Breeders' Cup Classic. I think you have to respect Baffert bringing him here as well as his Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 win in early October. He'll be coming late, which the Belmont stretch played well to his strength, and he should have enough speed in front of him to make a late move.
Shaman Ghost, the Ontario bred 4 YO, has been on the shelf since winning at 9-1 in The Woodward G1. first start at CD, 4 wins in 8 starts on fast dirt, 1 win at the distance in 1 try, 6 wins in 12 lifetime starts.
Do I have last year's winner, Effinex, too low? he came off a stalking trip in last year's edition and if he's in that spot again this year of course he'll be dangerous. I'm covering him in multiple spots.
The last horse I'm going to consider is a bit of a wildcard, Roger Attfield's Are You Kidding Me. No wins in two dirt starts, winless in only attempt at CD, the modestly bred 6 YO has a combined 29 turf and fake dirt starts, mostly at Woodbine, and he is running very well but this seems like a very odd placing for him. I like him showing up in the ticket, as I suspect he will be on the lead and dropping like a stone near the wire. Here he is at Churchill Downs running a flat effort in the Stephen Foster Handicap.
So what to do with all this? First of all, I love the big field of handicap division warriors. This race would be an example of what I describe to people as to why I love horse racing. I love the stories, I love seeing a 44 start 6 YO still doing what he does. Everyone loves the triple crown races, but this level of Grade 1 action is what does it for me. I'm tossing at my own peril Breaking Lucky, Mr. Z, Prayers for Relief and Hawaakom. Murphy's Law: One of them will screw us up.
I'm really torn, and while a horse racing fan can be torn, a bettor cannot be. My base bet (below) isn't even worth me pricing out as I'm never going to make such an investment in a wide open race.
After mulling about a $69 bet $1 Super and a $50 bet $2 Exacta I settled on $1 Tri bet for $20 which I would be OK with taking to $2/$40. The bet forces me to single Noble Bird and put the rest of my survivor pool under him. Regardless of the horse I single, the bet construction will be what I settle on. What do I mean by that? I'm not sold on Noble Bird and I'm not sure if he's going to get smaller or bigger than 4-1, so if Gun Runner down to 8-1, perhaps I flip flop Noble Bird and Gun Runner.
Watch the tote and only invest what you are prepared to lose. My exotic hit rate on Tri's has been hovering around 25% but my IRR is positive, albeit slightly. That's over many years. I have had stretches where it is mind numbing horrible and also savant like fantastic. Welcome to horse racing!
To bet or not to bet? When you sit down with a card, certain races will pop out to you, after you have invested the time and effort to develop the craft, that are much easier marks than this race. As a horse player, why bet a hard race when you can take advantage of a no brainer race on the same card or a different track. Don't fall into the trap of betting every race but if you handicap, take the time to build out your bets, review what coulda shoulda woulda when its over, and be honest with yourself.
Have fun with this friends. Happy Turk(ey) Day. Turk(s) out!
