Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1)

Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) Analysis and Picks

By Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off 

The Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) anchors the Del Mar card on Friday. Going a mile and a half on the turf, the race drew an overflow field: twelve, plus two also-eligibles.

Race 7: Hollywood Turf Cup (G2), three-year-olds and up, one and one half miles on the turf, post time 3:30pm PST 

 

Arklow, the east coast invader, will probably be the favorite. On form, he deserves it: he is a well-proven mile and a half horse, and though he was off the board in the Breeders' Cup Turf, he wasn't embarrassed: less than four lengths beaten by Tarnawa. He is also versatile enough to track in range of the pace or sit well off, as the race demands. Though he has never gone to Del Mar before, he has always been the kind who can go to different tracks and show up strongly. Though, Brad Cox doesn't always win when he ships to Del Mar; he has only shipped seven starters in the last five years, but with only one winner among them despite five of the seven going off at 5/1 or shorter. Four of the seven have hit the board, but it's enough to beware at a short price.

 

Say the Word has gotten as good as ever this year. He surprised almost everyone when he not only won at 51/1 odds at Saratoga on August 14, but set a new course record. He is no flash in the pan, however: he has held his form in two starts since, and impressed in the Northern Dancer (G1) when he sat well off a pedestrian pace and still kicked on well enough to win by a measured length. He now moves to the Phil d'Amato barn, a positive angle, and gets a switch to the red-hot Flavien Prat. (He also has a speedy stablemate entered, Acclimate; if he has the same speed he did before a yearlong lay, Acclimate may help set things up mighty well for Say the Word, along with rail-drawn North County Guy and Ward 'n Jerry further outside, and Fivestar Lynch if he draws in.) Though there is a question of whether he will handle California firm ground as well as he handled Woodbine, Say the Word has been able to take his form to different tracks (and barns), and should be a serious threat in the lane.

 

German invaders can be hit-or-miss in the United States; judging from his outing in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), Laccario may well be a hit. He ran on well from midpack for second in that race behind only Channel Maker, who franked that form with a third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Though Laccario was still trained by German Andreas Wohler at that point, he has now moved to the barn of Graham Motion, who excels with new arrivals to his barn. However, be careful; his shippers to southern California do not win as often as hoped; he is only 6-for-77 over the last five years, 30% in the money, and has not had a winner at Del Mar specifically since 2016. So, the signals on Laccario are mixed; he merits some confidence underneath off that last effort, though with that trend he may be an underlay in the win pool.

 

Red King won three straight this summer, progressing from a one-other-than to the San Juan Capistrano (G3) to the Del Mar Handicap (G2), before finishing a flat ninth in the Breeders' Cup Turf. the mile and a half shouldn't trouble him. And, though he is only one-for-nine at Del Mar, he is seven-for-nine in the money, so at least he runs well over the course. He also keeps Umberto Rispoli in the irons — and that's perhaps the biggest thing in his favor. Rispoli is continuing his strong form into the Del Mar fall meet, and it speaks volumes that Rispoli knew Red King well enough to make that early move in the Del Mar Handicap and trust that it would be the winning one.

 

Selections:

#4 Say the Word (5/1)

#8 Laccario (3/1)

#3 Red King (5/1)

Longshot: At a price, #12 Another Mystery (10/1) intrigues. An Illinois mainstay last year, he has landed in California with trainer Michael McCarthy, and has not been disgraced against the West Coast turf set. his race in the John Henry last out was particularly encouraging, running on well late and almost nipping second at 61/1 odds. His third-place finish in the Bald Eagle Derby last year suggests potential at a mile and a half, as does the fact that he is such a close relative to the long-winded Ioya Bigtime. Under the red-hot Mike Smith, Another Mystery may just pull off another surprise.