Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Mrs. Revere Stakes (G2)

 Mrs Revere Stakes with a royal ending

By Michael Amo, ThoroFan

This a rematch for four fillies that finished 1,2,3,4 in the last against each other in the Pin Oak Valley View Stakes (GIII) at Keeneland Race Course. The race was evenly matched with a lot of early speed, which is missing in this race. As a result, the race was set up for a closer that won it. Of the three new-comers to this race, only one looks to seriously challenge. 

 

 

 

Here is the field:

 

 

    1.   Hendy Woods (Uncle Mo) comes in after a grade 1 attempt last out against the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare 3^rd place finisher, Harvey’s Lil Goil. One back over the Churchill Downs course, she was more tactical, finishing 2^nd at the grade 2 level. Could win it.

 

     2.   Positive Danger (Uncle Mo) steps up to graded level company after a wire-to-wire win in an Optional Claimer. May be the speed, but will the rest of the field let her have her way. Unlikely.

 

    3.   Stunning Sky (Declaration of War) took advantage of the quick early faction in Pin Oak Valley View Stakes (GIII) at Keeneland in October to close for the win. Without the heated pace in this, one may not have a similar opportunity. Has to be closer early to win. Santana returns for trainer Mike Maker and might be able to time it right.

 

    4.   Princess Grace (Karakontie, JPN) looked like the winner coming from the mid-pack only to be overtaken at the wire by Stunning Sky. Looks to have tactical speed and may be closer to the lead as they traverse the stretch. May surprise, especially if the pace is moderate.

 

    5.   How Ironic (Tonalist) is the daughter of 2014 Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist. She is a deep closer that finished 3^rd at 29-1 in the Pin Oak Valley View Stakes (GII) at Keeneland, last out. Has shown progressive improvement.

 

    6.   Pass the Plate (Temple City) is another one trying the graded game for the first time. Looks a little too slow for this field. Not likely to get her picture taken.

 

    7.   Witez (More Than Ready) has a 3^rd place finish in the Lake George (GIIIT) at Saratoga, which was proceeded by a win in a Saratoga in $74 Allowance mile turf. This one is a second after a layoff for Ian Wilkes. Has to hope for some solid pace.

 

The determining factor in this race seems to speed. The weather should be good and turf firm. Positive Danger looks like the main early speed but isn’t really that fast. Princess Grace shows tactical speed and gets a new jockey, Florent Geroux. If she sits right behind the leaders and attacks in the stretch, she could win it at a fair price. In the stretch, look for Princess Grace and Hendy Woods to duel to the wire as Stunning sky and How Ironic try to overcome them.

Here is how they will finish:

1.   Princess Grace (#4)

2.   Hendy Woods (#1)

3.   How Ironic (#5)

4.   Stunning Sky (#3)

Handigamble Play ($100)

$4 Trifecta Box:  #1, #3, #4 and #5 = $96

Save $4 for beverage to celebrate! Good Luck, but keep the day job!