High Heel Drama in the Pacific Classic
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper
The Saturday card hosts five stakes races highlighted by the Pacific Classic (GI) with a million-dollar purse and an invitation to the Breeders’ Cup Classic to the winner.
Only one has that ticket punched with a win in the grade one Haskell Invitational Stakes from Monmouth Park ---Geaux Rocket Ride. The other ten are after that prize.
The field is balanced with front runners, closers, and strategic runners. Only three of the ten are stepping up into grade one company. Here is the field.
1. Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride) won the Haskell beating Arabian Knight who led to the stretch but was not strong enough to win. The extra furlong would seem to benefit Rocket Ride who doesn’t need to win to secure a position in the Breeders’ Classic but improves his chances for Horse of the Year recognition with second grade one win. Major contender.
2. Katonah (Klimt) has the name of a top-class town in Westchester County, New York, the comparison ends there. He is making his first effort at grade one company for trainer Doug O’Neil. Not likely in the money.
3. Stilleto Boy (Shackleford) tried the grade one Stephen Foster at Ellis Park first after a layoff. Needed that race. Retains jockey Desormeaux who has guided him to the Winner’s Circle at Santa Anita and a near miss in the Oaklawn Handicap in 2022. Distance suits him. Serious contender.
4. Tripoli (Kitten’s Joy) solid turf breeding with little to show on the grass. Has shown some liking for the dirt but not at this level. Working bullets for a solid trainer, Saddler. Could surprise in the exotic pools. Not likely.
5. Defunded (Dialed In) from a sire with plenty of class and wins to show it. His winning the Gold Cup (GI) shows he is in the right group. His last at 8.5 furlongs raised questions. May be back-up for Baffert’s other horse, Arabian Knight who have may been overextended in the last. Tricky to predict.
6. Order and Law (Violence) may not be fast enough to race with these. Coming up in company to grade one level. Will be out early but will not likely last.
7. Slow Down Andy (Nyquist) home bred that has done well but not at this level. May have trouble with distance. If runs well, a good indicator of his future success. Not in this Classic.
8. Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) advanced from last to first a month ago in the San Diego Handicap (GII) Suggesting a strong closing kick in this race that could get him in the money but not the Winner’s Circle.
9. Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo) was purchased for $2,300,000 but has not justified that price on the track. 2nd off a layoff may move him forward. May get in a duel with other Baffert’s horse, Defunded. Not sure how that will work out for either of them. Confusing
10.Piroli (Battle of Midway) was second best at long odds in the Gold Cup (GI) in May and his honest trip over Del Mar surface last out suggests he may be ready for top performance. Gets new jockey who performed well at last Santa Anita meet. If pace is fast, he will be coming in the stretch.
11.Skinner (Curlin) working nicely at Del Mar for trainer Sherriffs. If he can repeat his effort in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) last April, he could surprise. Likely in the exotics.
Analysis
Cutting to the chase the Pacific Classic (GI) is a race between the 3-year-olds and the others with two of that age group garnering Morning Line odds recognition.
It seems Arabian Knight is tailing off and Geaux Rocket Ride will need a strong start and positioning. As the winner of the Haskell Invitation last month, he will be under the watchful eye of the other jockeys, and may have trouble repeating that effort.
The pace should be strong with Stilleto Boy, Defunded and Arabian Knight showing the way with Geaux Rocket Ride and three other non-contenders in pursuit. Waiting for the stretch to run are Tripoli, Senor Buscador, Piroli, and Skinner.
Here how I think they will finish:
#3 Stilleto Boy
#1 Geaux Rocket Ride
#5 Defunded
#8 Senor Buscador
Handigamble:
$20 win/ $40 Place on # 3 Stilleto Boy = $60
$2 Exacta Box: #3 Stilleto Boy, #1 Geaux Rocket Ride and #5 Defunded = $12
$1 Trifecta Box: #3 Stilleto Boy, #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, #5 Defunded and # 8 Senor Buscador - $24
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