Could the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity produce next 2YO Champ?
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The Keeneland track surface switch from Polytrack back to dirt in 2014 returned the 1 1/16 mile event to its former glory as a significant Breeders' Cup Challenge race.
Six of the last nine Futurity winners hit the board in the Juvenile, and three, Classic Empire (2016), Essential Quality (2020), and Forte (2021), earned year-end championships.
The Breeders' Futurity is also a 2023 Kentucky Derby points race, offering a scale of 10-5-3-2-1 to the top four finishers.
The Breeders' Futurity attracted nine colts, including Hopeful Stakes (G1) runner-up Timberlake, Iroquois (G3) winner West Saratoga, and undefeated 2-time stakes winner The Wine Steward.
Claiborne Breeders' Futurity is billed as race nine of 11 on Keeneland's opening Saturday card, with a post time of 5:14 PM ET.
Let's review the field.
9. Locked (7-5) lived up to his $425,000 Keeneland yearling purchase price in his second start. In a maiden race at Saratoga, the Todd Pletcher trainee pressed the early pace through a half-mile in 47.72, then opened up and was hand-ridden to the finish, breezing under the wire 7 ¼ lengths in front, getting a mile in 1:36. Previously in his debut, Locked had to steady hard just steps out of the gate, and played catch-up from last place. He made up over 11 lengths and finished strong for third place, 3 ½ lengths behind Just Steel.
Locked is by Gun Runner out of the winning Malibu Moon mare Luna Rosa. The mare is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 -winning sprinter/miler Gabby's Golden Gal and Grade 2 winner Always a Princess.
Locked's 101 Brisnet speed and late pace rating of 109 are the highest in the field. The concern is that he may regress from the tremendous effort. Over the last year, Todd Pletcher has a 19% win rate with last-out maiden winners. Contender.
1. The Wine Steward (8-1) is undefeated in three starts, including the Bashford Manor and restricted Funny Cide Stakes, so why is he 8-1? His speed ratings improved in each outing, culminating in a 97 for the Funny Cide, and his 95 late-pace figure is the second-highest in the Futurity field. The Mike Maker trainee stumbled at the break of the Funny Cide, then made a sustained five-wide move, circling the field on the far turn. Manny Franco pushed The Wine Steward to the pacesetter, and once he saw his competitor, The Wine Steward challenged and put away that foe, winning by a head.
By the #5 freshman sire Vino Rosso, The Wine Steward is the first foal out of a daughter of To Honor and Serve. The mare is a half-sister to multiple graded winning turf router Isotherm and Grade 3 winner Giant Game.
The Wine Steward fired a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 at Churchill in his second-to-last breeze. Live longshot.
2. Timberlake (7-2) graduated in his second start by 9 ¼ lengths at Ellis Park, then took on winners in the Hopeful (G1). In that race, the Brad Cox trainee was stuck behind traffic while on the rail and wouldn't relax for Florent Geroux. The pair finally found a seam in mid-stretch, and the horses near him moved away, not wanting any part of Timberlake. Timberlake looked like a winner, but Nutella Fella made a surprise late move to grab the victory by 1 ½ lengths. Timberlake held off Pirate by a neck for second place. Timberlake's speed rating decreased five points from his maiden victory to 87 points for the Hopeful Stakes, but he bested Just Steel and Baytown Chatterbox.
A son of Into Mischief, Timberlake's female family is filled with group stakes-winning turf routers. Contender.
3. Awesome Road (3-1) dueled through mid-stretch before pulling away by 2 ¾ lengths in his Elis Park debut. The Brad Cox trainee completed six furlongs in 1:10.80, with a 12.76 final furlong, and earned a 90 speed rating for his effort. The race produced two next-out winners. Awesome Road flagged his tail when Gerardo Corrales smacked him on the left side, a sign of immaturity.
The Claiborne farm-bred colt is by Quality Road out of Pulpit's full sister, Orate. The mare previously produced the English Group 3 winner Whitecliftsofdover and restricted winner Endless Chatter, the dam of Futurity entrant Baytown Chatterbox.
Awesome Road posted a pre-race :59.80 five-furlong move at Churchill. Brad Cox wins 31% with the last-out maiden to stakes angle. Exotics.
6. Generous Tipper (15-1) changed his running style from a closer to a pacesetter and rewarded his connections with a 7 ½ -length victory in his third start. The field contained next-out winner and Futurity rival Northern Flame. In the one-mile event at Ellis Park, the Ken McPeek trainee zipped out of the gate and was quickly in front. Despite the quick start, he was asked to press from the rail. After a half in 47.17, Generous Tipper argued with two others on his outside but quickly dispatched them once Brian Hernandez, Jr. gave the go-ahead. Generous Tipper completed the mile in 1:37.36 with a final furlong of 12.94.
Street Sense's son is out of Stopshoppingdebbie, a multiple stakes-winning daughter of Curlin. Stopshoppingdebbie was queen of Emerald Downs and lost only once in her 10-race career, a Grade-3 event at Santa Anita. A trio of her half-siblings are stakes winners at the same track, including Smarty Deby, who bore multiple graded-placed runner Wild About Deb and listed-winning turf miler Starship Nterprise.
Generous Tipper's speed ratings have increased in each start, and his 91 late-pace rating is the third highest in the Futurity field. Longshot play.
5. West Saratoga (20-1) is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He steadily improved since April and graduated in his fifth start, beating Generous Tipper. The Larry Demeritte trainee followed up with a 1 ¾ length victory in the Iroquois Stakes (G3). So far, only third-place finisher and Futurity rival Northern Flame won next out, so I question the strength of the Iroquois field. Previously, West Saratoga was trounced 9 ¼ lengths by Timberlake.
By Preakness hero Exaggerator, West Saratoga is the first foal out of an unraced Uncle Mo mare. The class in his female family skips to the third generation and includes Alcibiades (G1) heroine Wickedly Perfect.
West Saratoga has tactical speed and has finished off the board only once in his career; with a bit of improvement, he could hit the exotics.
7. Just Steel (12-1) put it all together in his third start. He dueled gamely throughout and held off Be You by a nose despite being crowded and bumped in an intimidation tactic by Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard Be You. The third-place finisher returned to win his next start. In the Hopeful Stakes, Just Steel expended energy in the stretch, fighting with a stubborn Mission Beach to his outside. The Wayne Lukas trainee shortened stride and finished seventh, 7 ¾ lengths behind.
Just Steel's speed ratings slowly progressed to a 97 for his initial victory, then regressed 19 points in the Hopeful. He's still learning and may improve down the road.
Justify's son is out of an Australian Group 1 winner and is a half-brother to an Australian Group 1 winner and an Irish Group 3 winner. Pass.
8. Northern Flame (20-1) graduated in his third start after Timberlake beat him 17 lengths, and Gross Tipper handed him a 10-length defeat.
The Ken McPeek trainee switched from Ellis Park to Churchill and increased his distance to 1 1/16 miles. He changed from a mid-pack/presser style to a pacesetter, which resulted in a 1 ½ length victory.
Northern Flame is a son of #3 Freshman Sire Flameaway out of Darlings Darling, an unraced daughter of Bernardini, who previously bore Grade 3-placed On Alert. Darlings Darling is a half to Alcibiades (G1) winner Heavenly Love and Grade 2 winner, Forever Darling.
2-year-olds can improve practically overnight, and Northern Flame is the only one in the field who has traveled 1 1/16 miles. However, he'll need further improvement to make an impact here. Pass.
4. Baytown Chatterbox (50-1) figured things out in his third start, although it was painful to watch, as the very green son of Street Sense wandered around in the stretch with no idea where he was going, all the while the jockey bouncing around, whipping and driving, and looking back. Trainer Paul McEntee outfitted Baytown Chatterbox with blinkers and was rewarded when the gelding shocked the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes at 60-1. He was ambitiously placed in the Hopeful Stakes and was never in contention, finishing eighth, beaten 8 ½ lengths.
Baytown Chatterbox is out of a restricted stakes winner and carries the famed Claiborne bloodlines; his third dam is Preach, better known as Pulpit's dam.
Baytown Chatterbox might be a decent competitor when he grows up, but his speed ratings and performance need to improve to be competitive here. Pass
Analysis:
Since the switch back to dirt nine years ago, every Breeders' Futurity hero finished in the top three in their prep, except for Classic Empire, who took a sharp right turn coming out of the gate in the Hopeful Stakes and was a DNF.
Favorites live up to their billing with four winners; only one finished out of the money.
No particular running style dominates; however, only one pacesetter won in the last nine attempts.
Quick early fractions could set the Futurity up for an off-the-pace type. Just Steel, Timberlake, Just Steel, Awesome Road, and Northern Flame may vie early. Locked, Generous Tipper and West Saratoga may be hot on heels.
Locked may be a lock to everyone else, but I'm looking for The Wine Steward to pull the upset. I was impressed with his last race when he relished the fight and his rival gave in. Granted, it was a restricted race, but his final furlong in each race has been in the :11 to :12 range. Further, he wins from off the pace and is bred to love longer distances.
Timberlake could show further improvement, and he's Grade 1-placed.
Locked ran a monster race in his second start. Maybe he's that good, and we'll see something special.
The rest have a chance to sort themselves out for the lower exotics.
Picks:
1. The Wine Steward (8-1)
2. Timberlake (7-2)
9. Locked (7-5)
3. Awesome Road (3-1)
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