Alva Starr could fly away in Raven Run
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
It's a quick turnaround to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, so we may not see the winner take on her elders for the first time in the Grade 1 contest. However, Shamrock Rose pulled off the double in 2018 and was crowned Champion Female Sprinter.
Saturday will be partly cloudy, but the track should be fast. The Raven Run is carded as race 9 of ten with a 5:16 PM ET post time.
Let's take a look at the top
contenders and live longshots.
7. Alva Starr (2-1) towers above the rest as the runaway 8 ¾ winner of the Prioress Stakes (G2). Additionally, the Brett A. Brinkman trainee owns the only triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings in the field and earned them in her last two starts. Alva Starr is trying seven furlongs for the first time, but the pacesetter has :21 and change early speed and can carry it. She'll be tough to beat. Win contender.
4. Vahva (3-1) is one of two fillies in the Raven Run with a victory at seven furlongs. She was last seen galloping home a 1 ¼ length winner in the seven-furlong Charles Town Oaks (G3). This pace presser conditioned by Cherie DeVaux doesn't like to sit too far off the pace and has hit the board in seven of nine lifetime; however, she's never won consecutive races. Exotics.
9. Ancient Peace (10-1) placed second in the 1 1/16 mile Remington Park Oaks (G3) in her last start. It was her first start off the layoff and initial outing with her new trainer, Brian Lynch. It wasn't a bad effort, as she got a little tired and couldn't sustain her speed on the front end. War Front's daughter only wins when she's on the lead, and she hasn't shown the speed to stay with the top runners in this field. However, she should have the conditioning to hold on for a minor award. Exotics.
6. Dazzling Blue (KY) (9-2) won her first three starts as a pacesetter but was a runner-up both times she chased the pace. She finished third, 11 lengths behind Alva Star in the Prioress, but bested Vahva by 1 ½ lengths in the Victory Ride (G3). The Brad Cox trainee has the zip to run with Alva Star early if she's allowed to revert to her pacesetting style. Florent Geroux won with her as a pacesetter, so perhaps we'll see a duel on the front end. By Into Mischief, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Curlin, Dazzling Blue should have no issues carrying her speed. The only knock against her is that her late-pace figures are low. Lower exotics.
8. Lady Radler (5-1) won three of her last four starts, including the Dogwood Stakes (G3). She captured the seven-furlong Dogwood by 2 ¾ lengths despite being keyed up and tugging hard after checking early in the race. The Michael Campbell trainee's speed ratings are inconsistent, and her late-pace figures are middling. Still, she has tactical speed and is worth an include for a lower exotic placing.
3. Nom de Plume (20-1) has run only three times and is a neck shy of being undefeated over turf and Tapeta. Although the Paulo Lobo trainee's speed ratings are in the 80's, she's improved in each start, and her late-pace figures fit with the upper echelon. Nom de Plume gets her first shot over dirt, but Uncle Mo's daughter should handle it just fine since her half-siblings win on dirt and her second dam is Personal Ensign (G1) heroine Shadow Cast. Paco Lopez's charges hit the board in 21% of stakes at Keeneland. One to consider for a longshot exotic play.
2. Simply Stated (10-1) steps into the "A" league after dominating at Penn National and Presque Isle. Not a ringing endorsement, but she's won five of seven starts, and her speed ratings fit with this group. The Todd Beattie trainee gets the services of Luis Saez, who hits the board 46% of the time in sprints at Keeneland. Yes, she's taking a big class jump, but Simply Stated likes to win. One to consider for a longshot exotic play.
1. Lilly Poo (20-1) hasn't seen the winner's circle since April. The one-run closer was bested nine lengths by Vahva in her last start. Can't recommend.
5. Apple Picker (15-1) captured the Weather Vane Stakes at Pimlico in her last start. She either wins or finishes out of the money; there's no in-between with her. The Brittany Russell trainee struggles against optional claimers, and I don't see her being competitive in the Raven Run. Can't recommend.
Analysis
Nine of the last ten Raven Run heroines won or placed in their prep, and only one didn't prep in a stakes. Only two winners had a pacesetting style, closers won half the time, and only three favorites won.
While Alva Starr doesn't tick all the boxes for the historic winning profile, she's head and withers above this group. If she tosses a clunker or has to fight through fast fractions, Vahva can take advantage with her off-the-pace style. Nom de Plume also has tactical speed and is a promising young filly from a good family.
7. Alva Starr (2-1)
4. Vahva (3-1)
3. Nom de Plume (20-1)
6. Dazzling Blue (KY) (9-2)
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