Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Sands Point Stakes (G2)

 Handicapping the Sands Point for turf or dirt?

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan handicapper

A “Baker’s Dozen” of 3-year-old fillies is scheduled to race 9 Furlongs on the turf on Saturday in the Sands Point Stakes (GII) for a share of the $200,000 purse.

The main concern in handicapping the race is the 70% change of rain at race time. It is questionable if the race will remain on the grass. NYRA expecting heavy rain on Saturday night and Sunday have moved stakes races from Subday to next week. It seems they are not concerned about rain on Saturday.

Therefore, we are assuming it will stay on the turf, but will suggest horses that may do well on the off track.

Let’s look at the field.

 Soviet Excess -ran solidly in grade 2 company, showing improvement with ability on turf or dirt. Contender.

Quarrel –trying grade 2 for first time. May not be fast enough. Can run well on turf and dirt. Exotic play

Leave No Trace – out of form the last two races in 2023. Not sure if she will recover to her 2022 form. Would do better if the race is switched to the dirt. Not in this race.

Be Your Best (IRE)--performed well at grade 0ne level. Seems in good form for this race. Needs the race to remain on the turf to win. Contender if on turf.

Neecie Marie—ran her best race at PARX 2 back. Last over Aqueduct turf was not as good. If she returns to PARX form and race remains on the turf could be an Exotic play.

Root Cause—consistent runner for Chad Brown in turf races. Trying grade two for the first time. Best chance to be in the money if remains on the turf. Exotic play.

Eternal Hope (IRE)—showed she likes a firm Aqueduct turf course. Rain will affect her performance. Soft turf or muddy main will diminish her chances. Not sure?

Highland Grace—paired her last three in form. First grade 2. May be asking too much for her. Not today.

Stephanie ‘s Charm—has tried grade 2 once with little success. Eight tries in 2023 without a win. Pass on her chances.

Alpha Bella—consistent runner for Todd Pletcher. May not be fast enough to compete. Could be seen on lower end of Exotic plays.

Essaouira—MTO

Amanda’s Folly—MTO

Ichiban—MTO

 

Selections:

Assuming the race remains on the turf here are my top four selections:

TURF:

  4.  Be Your Best (7-2)

     1.  Soviet Excess (4-1)

    10.  Alpha Bella (8-1)

 7.  Eternal Hope (5-2)

 

If on DIRT, consider these:

 3.  Leave No Trace (15-1)

10. Essaouira (5-2)

  1. Soviet Excess (7-2)

13. Ichiban  (2-1)

 

Good luck, but keep the day job!