Handicapper's Corner Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Apple Blossom Handicap Champion Showdown

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

 

Two champions will clash in what could be either a blossoming rivalry or the best matchup of the year. The Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park attracted six older fillies and mares, including Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver, plus Mexican champion Letruska.

 

 

 

Kudos to Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver's connections in not playing the ducking game and bringing their two titans together in, hopefully, one of multiple meetings.  Once upon a time, this was commonplace, yet over the decades, trainers and owners are timid and are too busy looking at the bottom line instead of remembering the basics of horse racing. “I bet my horse can beat yours.”

Ok, speech over. Let’s get to it.

 

When was the last time MONOMOY GIRL lost a race? That was in 2018 when she was taken down on the DQ for drifting in on Midnight Bisou, who earned Champion Older mare honors the following year. Before that, we have to go back to Monomoy Girl’s 2-year-old season, when she finished second, bested a neck in the Golden Rod (G2). The small chink in Monomoy Girl’s armor is that she hasn’t raced since February.

SWISS SKYDIVER lost to Monomoy Girl in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Toss that race. Swiss Skydiver stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance. Before that race, she beat Kentucky Derby winner Authentic in the Preakness. The Ken McPeek trainee tuned up for the Apple Blossom with an easy victory in the Beholder Mile (G1). All systems go.

LETRUSKA won two legs of the Mexican Triple Crown for fillies, missing the first leg since it was for Mexican-breds. She carried her form to the U.S. and won the Shuvee (G3) and the Houston Ladies Classic (G3). More recently, she missed the win in the Azeri Stakes (G2), beaten a head by Shedaresthedevil.  Should either of the top mares stub a hoof, Letruska could be right there.

GETRIDOFWHATAILESU finished third, bested two lengths by Letruska in the Azeri Stakes. She’s the local horse, having finished in the money in all five starts at Oaklawn. The Brad Cox trainee is a deep closer, so if the pace is fast, look to her late to pick up the pieces.

CHANCE TO SHINE has finished behind Monomoy Girl and Getridofwhatailesu.  She’s an Optional Claiming/overnight stakes type. Nothing wrong with that, and she’s been in the money 12 of 18 starts. She just isn’t in the class of the others.

So what happened to ANOTHER BROAD in the Bayakoa Stakes (G3) in February? She was off slow, trailed the entire way, some 18 lengths back, and jogged across the finish line, 31+ lengths behind Monomoy Girl. The 6-year-old mare has lost a step. She finishes third now and then and even placed in the Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3) in 2019 but hasn’t won a race in two years. Another Broad has earned $408,543 in her 24-race career. She has the class and bloodlines to be a good broodmare.

 

Analysis

So, are you Team Monomoy Girl or Team Swiss Skydiver? Or do you want them to dead heat for the win?  Yeah, me too.

I see Letruska setting the pace, with the two champs hovering. This is very much a jocks race between Geroux and Albarado. Monomoy Girl benefits from the outside post, while Albarado will have to get Swiss Skydiver in the clear. Geroux could easily block or pin Albarado in until late. Either way, we hope to see a thrilling head n’ head battle down the stretch.

#6 MONOMOY GIRL (1-1)

#2 SWISS SKYDIVER (2-1)

#3 LETRUSKA (4-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Arkansas Derby (G1)

 An Arkansas Encore - The Tour to Louisville Continues

By: Alex Sausville, Off-the-Turf Podcast

As the final weekend of Kentucky Derby points races arrives, the spotlight shifts back to Oaklawn Park, where a group of familiar three-year-olds will offer one more challenge to Concert Tour, another of Bob Baffert’s star contenders for the run for the roses.

 

The Arkansas Derby (G1), a race that in the past would conclude the states “Fifth Season,” is now the center point of a meet that continues its exceptional racing schedule all the way to the first Sunday in May.

 

Following a dominant effort by Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes (G2), the challenges will look very similar in the Arkansas Derby, plus a bump in graded value. With a field of six lined up on Saturday, four of the five challengers came out of last month’s Rebel Stakes, with Last Samurai coming 2nd up out of a 5th place effort in the Southwest. 

This event looks like another low-hanging fruit for the Bob Baffert barn. Despite the injury of 2020 winner Nadal prior to last year’s Kentucky Derby, Baffert's other two winners of the Arkansas Derby include Bodemeister and the great American Pharoah, two horses who performed extremely well during the Triple Crown series.

Prior to the Rebel, the main challenge for Concert Tour was viewed to come at the hands of Smarty Jones Stakes winner, Caddo River. The son of Hard Spun produced a dominant ten length triumph for his first stakes win and came into the Rebel as the narrow favorite over Concert Tour. 

Many believed that the two favorites would go at it from the start and potentially set it up for the late closers waiting in behind, and while they did go head to head early, only Caddo River came back to the field. 

Despite going head to head with Concert Tour at the start, Geroux was able to sit just off down the backstretch to get the trip he wanted. In a bigger field, there would be a much better chance for Caddo River to be able to not use up as much early speed and have someone apply pressure to Concert Tour. However, with such a small field, the only other speed who could make that difference would be if Get Her Number comes back a strong second off the layoff for Peter Miller.

This year’s Arkansas Derby may be Concert Tour’s race to win, but control of the race is a bit of a toss-up. One of the biggest things with seeing a field so familiar with each other is that the tactics most often will change. I will be expecting Concert Tour to face a much stronger challenge upfront, which should be coming from Get Her Number or even Caddo River if they think that is the only chance to challenge for contention. 

If the race works out the way I would hope, my eyes will land on Super Stock, a son of Dialed In who comes in second off the layoff and showed a little late kick in a fourth-place finish in the Rebel. It will be a tough challenge for him to find his way to the winner’s circle in a race controlled by Concert Tour; however I believe that the rest of the field will not follow the definition of insanity, and the Arkansas Derby will be vastly different tactic wise than we saw in the Rebel. If that ends up being the case, Super Stock is a great value play both underneath and to steal the show late.

 

My Bets:

$40 Exacta Box: 1,5

$20 Win - Super Stock

Total: $100

 

Final Thoughts:

The 2021 Arkansas Derby is a race not to get too crazy with. Despite the fact that I believe Super Stock could be great value in this spot, it will take some drastic changes in the race format to see Concert Tour falter. 

Whether Concert Tour is able to run his race or not, I still don’t see him finishing outside of the top two, and am hopeful that if he gets softened up towards that extra 1/16th of a mile, that Super Stock could be the one to sneak by late. Despite some talented horses' efforts, it would take too much of a tactic change from the others in the field who aren’t capable of softening him up for them to be the ones at the line.

Short field or not, the Arkansas Derby continues to be one of the most influential Kentucky Derby prep races on the calendar. The stars come out in full force during the Oaklawn meet and continue to shine as the season progresses. If Concert Tour can continue his winning ways this Saturday, the Baffert trend promises great opportunities with the three main events on the horizon.

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Ashland Stakes (G1)

 Contentious Ashland Stakes Could Produce Kentucky Oaks Winner

By: Stuart deVoe

For the eighty-fourth time, Keeneland Race Course will present The $400k Central Bank Ashland (G1) - its signature race for 3-year-old fillies this Saturday.  Invariably, this 1 1/16-mile test is viewed in the context of being a prep race for the 2021 Kentucky Oaks (G1), which will take place four weeks hence.  It makes sense.  After all, if you own a quality 3-year-old filly this time of year, the Oaks is always the goal.  In fact, thirty-four fillies who raced in the Ashland have gone on to win the Oaks, with Monomoy Girl being the last. 

For those of us inclined to put a wager or two down this Saturday - we must ensure we narrow our focus to THIS event for what it is and not let our thoughts bleed into what we think will happen on the Friday before the first Saturday in May.  We will worry about that race, the Kentucky Oaks, when the time is right and now is not that time.   Now is the time for the Ashland!  This handicapper is expecting a fast track and sunny skies.

Here is a look at the field:

    1.   Curlin’s Catch (8-1) – Mark Casse/Chris Landeros:  This $430k OBS April purchase had progressed nicely this winter, winning her maiden in a one-turn mile event at Gulfstream and then backing that effort up with a win in Tampa Bay Down’s Suncoast – a two-turn test.  In her third start this year, Curlin’s Catch regressed.  It was in the G2 Davona Dale back at the 1-turn Gulfstream mile.  It also was her third race in less than 60 days, usually a tall task in today’s racing landscape.  She, in fact, broke a bit flat-footed, was asked by her jockey to be forward and never really responded to urging entering the far turn.  Now she is back with three works under her belt since her poor effort and would have to rebound in a big way.  A bit of a reach.

    2.   Pass the Champagne (4-1) – George Weaver/Javier Castellano:  This miss was privately purchased after her first race placing in a maiden race at Gulfstream.  Her talent was evident that day as she found trouble a few times and still ran on well. Subsequently, she broke her maiden rather professionally in her second start.  Now, she will try winners, graded stakes company, and two turns for the first time.  George Weaver is 17% first-time routing.  The talent is there, but those are a lot of new obstacles in which to overcome.  Talented – yes.  Is she ready – maybe…  Possible.

    3.   Simply Ravishing (5-2) – Kenny McPeek/Luis Saez:  Already having won a Grade 1 at this track and distance, this miss is the class of the field.  She may have gone to the well a few too many times at the end of her 2-year-old campaign as she started with three wins in as many starts, but followed up with a pair of fourth-place finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) (also at KEE) and Churchill’s Golden Rod (G2).  Since she is the class and is proven at the track and distance, she must be considered a player.  Contender.

    4.   Moon Swag (10-1) – Brendan Walsh/Adam Beschizza:  After racking up two third-place finishes at the Fair Grounds this winter behind top Oaks contenders in Clairiere & Travel Column, this Malibu Moon filly ships up hoping to break through.  She does have two-turn and graded race experience, both a plus.  She also has a rising star trainer in Brendan Walsh who seems to put live horses on the track.  Moon Swag is improving at the right time but will need a solid pace to close into to get her picture taken.  She may get it.  Longshot chance.

    5.   Malathaat (9/5) – Todd Pletcher/Joel Rosario:  Shadwell Stable reached for just over $1 million for this daughter of Curlin as a yearling at the Keeneland September Sale.  She has yet to disappoint with a three-for-three 2-year-old campaign that was capped off with a victory in Aqueduct’s 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2).  In that event, Malathaat took the worst of it from a trip perspective.  She was pinned on the sloppy rail much of the race and got shuffled back behind a tiring foe around the far turn.  Once loose, she ran down a nice one in Millefeuille (second in this year’s Gulfstream Park Oaks) and put her ears up under the wire. If she has any progression from a 2-year-old to a 3-year-old, watch out!  Oh, you also get Joel Rosario, who just seems to cross the country and swoop up wins no matter where he rides.  Win contender.

    6.    Will’s Secret (7/2) – Dallas Stewart/Jon Court:  Riding a three-race win streak of her own, Will’s Secret has made all the right moves wintering in Hot Springs, Arkansas.  After breaking her maiden at Fair Grounds, Will’s Secret’s last two races were both two-turn stakes, the latter being the Honeybee (G3).  In that event, she rated on the lead through tepid fractions before going on and holding all at bay in the stretch.  She galloped out well and looked no worse for wear.  Dallas Stewart knows how to train a good one and most likely will have her ready.  Win Contender.

Analysis

Although it is important to look at the Ashland as a stand-alone event, the fact remains that at least four of these fillies, Curlin’s Catch, Malathaat, Moon Swag, and Simply Ravishing, need to finish in the exacta to ensure a spot in the 14-horse Kentucky Oaks starting gate next month.  Will’s Secret, currently fourth on the Oaks point list (60pts), is the only one in this Saturday’s race guaranteed a berth should she choose to run. 

That said, my top choice is Malathaat.  She has been training forwardly for her return and is piloted by Joel Rosario, whom I consider the best rider in the country.  The professionalism she displayed winning the Demoiselle last year speaks volumes, and as mentioned above, any improvement from her will be extremely dangerous.  Pletcher sends them over fit & ready off the layoff.     

Will’s Secret is going the right way, and I have the feeling we haven’t seen the best of this filly yet.  I think when we look back, her Honeybee win at Oaklawn will pan out to be a strong race.  She is tractable and can either go forward or rate from her outside gate. 

Moon Swag chased two very nice fillies down in New Orleans in her last (Travel Column & Clairiere).  She is definitely on the improve, and the price will be square. 

Pass the Champagne gets honorable mention as she has a world of talent and looks to be any kind.  I just question if she is ready for this right now, and at a shorter price, I will watch to see. 

 Simply Ravishing will need to prove that she has bounced back from her last two efforts before I can back her at shorter odds.  Good Luck.

#5 Malathaat (9-5)

#6 Will’s Secret (7-2)

#4 Moon Swag (10-1)