Handicapper's Corner: UAE Derby (Group 2)

UAE Derby Has Longshot Potential

By: John Caro, S. FL Thorofan Member

This is a Kentucky Derby qualifier race for international 3 year-olds going longer. Today’s race has got two short-priced favorites that have shown their abilities at Del Mar and Meydan. The rest of the runners should not be overlooked as they each bring special talents to the race.

#5 Gold Town (6/5) – Won going away last out in the 2K Guineas at this track in a one turn mile and his last 500 meters was done in about 29 seconds. Swift feet. I understand why he gets the short price after winning his last three and he’s competed at the top tracks in England. Breeding suggests distance will not be an issue. My only concern is he is untested at two turns. He’ll take a lot of money and pay out might be pretty short.

#4 Mendelssohn (5/2) – Winner in his last two including the Patton Stakes in Ireland and BC Juvenile Turf at a mile on the grass at Del Mar last fall. No doubt he likes to run and likes it near or on the lead in the videos I watched. O’Brien and Ryan Moore are a tough crew and a winning combination many times. I like the fact that he has been a world traveler. It shows his ability to adapt to new situations. This fella has only gone on the grass until his last race on synthetic. Questions: Will he get the lead? Will he battle with the other favorite? He’s gone two turns at Del Mar but, will it translate to the dirt? I like the odds. Not the questions.

Okay I’m over the favorites. On to the very interesting competition trying to upset the top two.

Aiden O’Brien brings his other two runners #9 Threeandfourpence (10/1) and #6 Seahenge (15/1) who finished second and third respectively behind Mendelssohn in the Patton Stakes. There was no contest after they reached the stretch though Threeandfourpence kept on. Both have raced at the Grade I level at Newmarket in the Darley finishing fourth and third respectively. Good performers but seem to lack the ability to finish under pressure. Not on my likely upset candidates.

Let’s talk American. The only USA entry is #3 Reride (12/1) and an interesting way to the KYD. Winner of the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland going 1-1/16^th this Candy Ride colt is looking pretty logical since he won dueling with the 4/5 favorite by two lengths who was last week’s winner of the Sunland Derby. Don’t know he traveled well to Dubai but I suspect that the trainer who took Gunrunner there knows how to get it done. His record of four wins in five outings combined with Castellano aboard gives me confidence he is an upset candidate.

#1 Rayya (10/1) – I like to see a girl running with the boys who has already qualified for the KY Oaks, gone the distance at this track in good time winning the UAE Oaks by 3+, has been in first or second in every race here at her home track and Pat Dobbs is her only jockey….sorry boys but I think we have some competition from the inside post in a race where the run to the first turn is very short. She left from the one hole last time, went to the lead and set good pace. As she rounded the last turn put away her competition by three and held that margin while gaining to finishing the last 500 meters in 29 seconds. Plenty of energy left in the tank. Just like this one and look forward to seeing her in the KY Oaks.

#7 Yulong Warrior (15/1) – This Street Cry guy has done well in Dubai with his two wins in three races. His last was at today’s distance at a time that was faster the Rayya from the same post and pretty much the same style in the lead against lesser. Winning the race by eleven and the last 500 meters in 29 as well shows another who could make the pace impact on the two favorites.

#8 Taiki Ferveur (20/1) – This is the kind of horse that makes me love longshots in a race where there is so much pace it could break down and be won by a closer who just flies. He’s proven himself at a mile and an eighth. He finished second from well back, stuck on the rail while going out wide around nine others in the Hyacinth Stakes in Japan. The video is most impressive and should be watched on YouTube if you have time. He is the #2 horse. I think he is number three on Japan’s runners for the KYD. The thing that’s most interesting is the jockey, Joao Moreira. He currently rides the Hong Kong circuit but is called upon by the top Japan trainers for special races. They don’t call him ‘Magic Man’ for nothing….see his Wiki or get up early and watch him race at Happy Valley. Sneaky good jockey.

Last we have the horse that worked had in the Hyacinth Stakes and showing well against a great pace but was passed easily by the one above. #2 Ruggero (30/1) – A nice colt who has a decent record but doesn’t appear capable for this competition but doesn’t miss by much. The jockey change may help.

How to play this one? There seem to be some options to parlay some money. When I see high numbers in the odds that intrigue me I usually play a safety Exacta or my version of the bet. It’s relatively cheap given the return. It worked well in the FOY at Gulfstream a few weeks back and might be the ideal play for this one. I don’t think we can discount the favorites and I’m hoping the money spreads out a little and can get in the 8/5 and 9/5 range for the ML favorites. And maybe the others go up as the money piles in on the favs.

Exacta Box for $2 – 1, 3, 7, 8 - $24

Safety Exacta Key $6 – 4, 5 with 1, 3, 7, 8 - $48

As noted above I’m in favor of a true longshot that closes in a high paced race. The #8 is my pick.

Exacta Key $4 – 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 with 8 - $20

Win $8 on the 8

Bonus bets:

Pick 3 starting this race – 1, 3, 7, 8 with 10 with 2, 6, 9  $12

Pick 4 starting this race - 1, 3, 7, 8 with 10 with 2, 6, 9 with 2, 9  $24

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Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Louisiana Derby (G2)

Louisiana Derby - Big Prep, but Not Easy

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

Since switching dates and stretching the distance to 1 1/8 miles, the Louisiana Derby has become a big prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The Grade 2 contest is the first qualifying race to award 100 points to the victor. Second place earns 40 points, third receives 20 points, and the fourth-place finisher gets 10 points.

Although the last horse who exited the Louisiana Derby to wear Kentucky Roses was Funny Cide (2003) the last seven editions of the Fair Ground’s main event for three-year-old males has produced 6 of the last 18 trifecta placings in the Kentucky Derby and five placings in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.  

The 2018 Louisiana Derby field attracted ten colts; The top three finishers in the Risen Star, Bravazo, Snapper Sinclair, and Noble Indy will be joined by Southwest Stakes hero My Boy Jack. The rest of the field includes Givemeaminit and Retirement Fund, who were unplaced in the Risen Star and Southwest, respectively, plus allowance runners Hyndford, Lone Sailor, and Dark Templar. A maiden, Marmello, is cross-entered in a maiden race on the undercard.

In the Risen Star, Bravazo dueled every step of the way with Snapper Sinclair. Now they’re adding an additional 1/2 furlong. It may not seem like much, but nine furlongs separates the sprinter-miler types from the middle distance – classic types. 

Risen Star replay:

 The Favorites

I have a ton of respect for Snapper Sinclair. He looks other horses in the eye and refuses to give way. His nose-bob second place finish in the Risen Star was a win in my book.  That being said, the son of City Zip is out of a Yes It’s True mare – sprinter/miler breeding on both sides of his pedigree. Snapper Sinclair isn’t a speed freak, and he’ll rate, but 1 1/8 miles seems a bit too far for the game Asmussen trainee.  I’ll include him in the exotics, though.

On the other hand, Bravazo, by Awesome Again out of a Cee’s Tizzy mare, is bred and built for classic distances. He has similar breeding to 2013 Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow, who just so happened to be conditioned by Wayne Lukas and piloted by Gary Stevens. The pair team up here with Bravazo.  This colt is just coming into his own. The distance will be perfect for him, but how hard did he have to run in the Risen Star? He won both starts this year by a neck and nose, and his speed figures improved slightly. Lukas gave the colt two bullet pre-race breezes. Will this set the colt up for victory in the Louisiana Derby, or will the colt regress? Guess we’ll find out, but certainly keep him in your wagers for the top spot.

My Boy Jack’s rails skimming Southwest Stakes victory over a muddy track brought back memories of Exaggerator and Mine That Bird. The extra half furlong should help the late-running son of Creative Cause. My Boy Jack’s second dam won at 1 1/8 miles and placed at 1 1/4 miles. The Desormeaux brothers are local boys, and neither has won the Louisiana Derby. How special would that be for these two hardworking horsemen?  My Boy Jack is a late-running closer in a race filled with speed and pace pressers. His main obstacle will be that Bravazo could get the jump on him. Don’t leave him out of your win wagers.

Worth a Bet

Noble Indy played in traffic for most of the Risen Star and lacked running room in the stretch. He had his own private war going with Instilled Regard and held third by a neck. The rest of the field was backing up, and no one was challenging. By Florida Derby hero Take Charge Indy, this Todd Pletcher trainee should handle 1 1/8 miles. The dark bay colt gets a shiny new set of blinkers to see if it helps him focus better.  Noble Indy won his first two starts easily before his two-length defeat in the Risen Star. He’ll get another class test here. Could he win? Anything’s possible in a race, but I’m going to put him in my exotics.

Hyndford is the other Pletcher trainee. He was last seen giving way to stablemate Magnum Moon in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs. That one returned to capture the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. By Street Cry out of a Candy Ride mare, Hyndford has the pedigree to handle Triple Crown distances and to improve with maturity. His BRIS speed figures indicate that he’s not quite ready for prime time, but at 8-1, he’s worth a look for an exotic wager.

Look Like Longshots

Retirement Fund switched up his pace-setting running style for the Southwest Stakes, this time racing behind the speed on the outside of the pack. He made a mild mid-race move but retreated when the real running began. He loves the Fair Grounds dirt and son of Eskendereya should handle the distance, but will he be part of a possible contentious pace? I’m not dipping into my IRA for a win bet. Exotics, maybe.

Dark Templar is a pricy son of Tapit out of a great-granddaughter of Champion Personal Ensign. He beat Lone Sailor last out but was bested by Retirement Fund the previous race. The Louisiana Derby is his first foray into stakes class racing. He’ll need to step up his game but could figure in lower exotics.

Givemeaminit Lone Sailor and Marmello appear up against it.

Selections

The track bias in the Louisiana Derby is…there is no track bias! Over the last ten years, pacesetters, one run closers and everything in between has been successful. However, horses within two lengths of the lead have been the most effective.

At least three to four colts will want to be on the lead or press the early pace, which would set up the race just fine for My Boy Jack. He’ll have 1,346 feet of stretch to mow them down. Don’t fall off Kenty D!  I like Bravazo too. He has the best pedigree of the pacesetting crowd to hang on for the victory. Flip a coin between these two for the win spot.

1^st - #9 My Boy Jack (5-2)

2^nd - #1 Bravazo (7-2)

3^rd – #2 Noble Indy (7-2)

4^th – #7 Snapper Sinclair (9-2)

Handigambling

The most likely winners in this race are all fairly short-priced odds, so is the risk worth the reward? Only if one of the long shots gets brave on the front end or the race falls apart.

$100 ThoroFan Virtual Dollars

$2 Superfecta Box - #9, #1, #3, #4 = $24

$4 Across the board (win/place/show) with odds of 4-1 or greater - #5, #6, #10 = $36

Dinner or drinks in New Orleans = $60

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Santa Margarita Stakes (G1)

Speed May Rule Santa Margarita Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman 

The Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes comes our way this Saturday from beautiful Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. A field of 10 fillies and mares, four-year old and up have been confirmed for the 1 1/8-mile contest and will be after the winner’s share of the $400,000 purse. 

The dynamics of the race lineup suffered a major hit recently when it was announced 2017 female sprinter Eclipse Champion, Unique Bella, was withdrawn from consideration due to a recent bout with a cough. In her most recent start last month, the 4-year old daughter of Tapit, owned by the Don Alberto stable and trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, dominated the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes, scoring by nine-lengths. The gray daughter of Tapit is now being pointed for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes April 13^th at Oaklawn Park.

Despite the absence of his star filly, trainer Hollendorfer, a Hall of Fame inductee in 2011, still has representation in the race, as he sends out Turkish Tabby and Eccentric Spinster. The two stablemates have produced one dirt start in 17 races combined.

Since the inaugural running in 1935, the Santa Margarita has attracted some of the greatest champion mares in Thoroughbred racing who have used the race as a stepping stone to award-winning campaigns. Winners of this race include Horse of the Year winner’s Azeri and Zenyatta in addition to other champions such as Lady’s Secret, Bayakoa, Paseana, Jewel Princess and Breeders’ Cup Distaff winners Life is Sweet and Adoration.

Post time is slated for 4:00 p.m. local time. Let’s take a look at entrants from the rail out.

PP – Horse - Jockey/Trainer

1 - La Force – Mike Smith/Patrick Gallagher – German-bred filly spent the early part of her career racing in Italy before being shipped Stateside in the fall of 2016 and has called Southern California home ever since. Has more turf than dirt starts on her resume, however, her three Santa Anita main track races were excellent, including a third-place effort in the one-mile Grade 2 La Canada. Goes a bit further here.

2 - Turkish Tabby – Rajiv Maragh/Jerry Hollendorfer – Lightly raced five-year old with only nine starts, comes off three consecutive runner-up finishes at Golden Gate, the last two being narrow losses by a nose. She tries the dirt for the first time since her debut 18 months ago.

3 - Mended – Carlos Gonzalez/ John Martin - An amazing 10-race winning streak by this mare was snapped in the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes last out when she lost a heartbreaker by a head bob at the wire. She displayed versatility during her streak, winning on synthetic, turf and dirt. Last year at this time, one could have claimed her for 12.5k, but since then, she has  ascended nicely up the ladder. She’s proved at least for now, that she deserves to be here.

4 - Dalsaros – Tyler Baze/Gaines – One year ago, following a dismal debut, she broke her maiden in a one-mile romp, winning by daylight. A setback caused her to be sidelined before returning in December in a six-furlong sprint obviously designed as a tightener. Getting back around two-turns is her forte as she won and finished second against allowance foes in her two subsequent starts. This placement is a bit ambitious, but the mare has good current form.

5 - Mistressofthenight – Kent Desormeaux/Richard Baltas – Two of her three wins have been on the dirt here at the ‘Great Race Place’, including a two-turn event just three weeks ago in allowance company, so we know she likes this track. She makes her third start off a layoff, and her trainer excels in that category with a high win rate. However, this is a difficult spot.

6 - Majestic Heat – Corey Nakatani/Richard Mandella – Much of her success has come on the turf. However, she became a graded stakes winner for the first time winning the Grade 2 Bayakoa with an off-the-pace run in her second dirt start in December. Failed to get the job done against state-bred runners last time out. The cut back to six panels may have been too short for her liking, so I’ll give her a pass. She may go better here stretching back out in her fourth start of the year.

7 - Bishop’s Pond – Victor Espinoza/Jason Servis – Eastern invader returned to work in January after a six-week layoff to claim her first stakes victory in an ungraded event at Laurel Park going eight furlongs. She was in control of the race throughout, winning by five-and-a-half lengths. In her only appearance at this level last fall in the Beldame Stakes, she vied for the lead into the stretch, before tiring to finish fifth.

8 - Eccentric Spinster – Joel Rosario/Jerry Hollendorfer – Ships down from Northern California to test the dirt after competing exclusively over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate. Has won three races from eight career starts, but nothing higher than allowance level. Only out-of-the-money finish was a fifth-place showing in a minor stake.

9 - Mopotism – Mario Gutierrez/Doug O’Neill – Had a busy sophomore season in 2017 competing with and holding her own against some of the best females in the country. One case in point: She ended her three-year old campaign third behind Unique Bella and Paradise Woods going 7-furlongs in the Grade 1 La Brea here on opening day in December. She won a thrilling edition of the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes by a head bob in January to open her four-year old year. Last month, she was runner-up in the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes, but again was no match for Unique Bella.

10 - Fault – Franco Giovanni/Phil D’Amato – Other than a couple of dirt starts early in her career, one of which she broke her maiden in, this filly has been campaigned on the turf. Has competed at seven different tracks winning a pair of graded stakes on the grass. The most recent one came in her 2018 debut when she returned from nearly a two-month layoff to rally from off the pace in the Grade 2 Buena Vista Stakes.

Analysis: There is plenty of speed signed on here with several need to lead types, therefore, I’m anticipating a hot pace. A horse that can relax behind the leaders should benefit nicely from the race flow.

As mentioned above, Mopotism chased quite a roster of star quality fillies several times last year and performed quite admirably. This event is devoid of opponents of that stature making this appear to be a bit of a class relief for the O’Neill runner. It’s Mopotism’s race to lose. Look for her sit a good trip in mid-pack, then turn on the after burners in the latter stages.  She gets the call for the win.

La Force was just beaten a neck by the top choice two back in the Grade 2 La Canada, and her last race was a confidence booster when beating allowance foes. She appears poised for a big effort and should get a ground saving trip.

Mended is blazing fast, but other speedsters in here will make sure she doesn’t get away. The mare will negate the chances of those pressing her, but her early efforts may leave her vulnerable navigating that extra furlong. She could stick around for a piece.

Fault has a win and a third in graded competition at nine furlongs on the turf, so the Santa Margarita distance would not appear to be an issue, but the surface switch is the major question.

Wager: With $100 ThoroFan dollars, we will make a $40 win bet on Mopotism. Let’s take the remaining sixty-dollars and play $20 straight exactas with Mopotism over the other three horses.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Rebel Stakes (G2)

Class is the Key to the Rebel Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park has had its success in sending winners to bigger and better things. Most recently, American Pharoah won the Rebel and catapulted to be the most recent Triple Crown winner in 2015. Curlin won the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes in 2007. Temperance Hill (1980) and Victory Gallop (1998) captured the Belmont Stakes. Pine Bluff, named for an Arkansas town, won the Preakness Stakes. Sunny’s Halo proved himself worthy by picking up the Roses on the first Saturday in May of 1983. There is a good chance history using one of these scenarios will repeat itself this year. 

The field of eleven is varied in class, experience over the track, workouts and rider consistency. Although strictly not outcome factors, these variables may be worth watching. For example, only two horses, Solomini and Sporting Chance, are coming in with a win in a grade one race, giving them a class edge. Will class be the key to the Rebel Stakes? Lets look at the field.

    1. Title Ready ( More Than Ready) seems to be the weakest of the three Asmussen runners entered. The other two are off-the-pace runners, so this one may be the “rabbit” for the other two. Gets seasoned rider. However, Santana, a top Asmussen rider, will ride Combatant. Pass.

    2. Curlin’s Honor (Curlin) has the right bloodlines. His sire won this race, as well as, the Arkansas Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. Working nicely. First attempt in graded company. May need this prep over the Oaklawn surface to be ready for the next step –Arkansas Derby. With top jockey, Geroux, could be in the exotics.

    3.   Solmini (Curlin) is another Curlin offspring with a proven record. Ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and stands out among most of these. Although layoff is not a major problem for Baffert trainees, three months away from competition could hurt. Odds board may tell.

    4.   Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon) is working nicely, however making a big step forward. Does not seem like Pletcher’s Derby horse.  Watch.

    5.   Higher Power (Medaglia d’Oro) is familiar with the Oaklawn surface. But long layoff may be a problem. Not today, maybe looking for the runner-up $3000 share of the purse and experience.

    6.   Pryor (Paynter) just broke his maiden; now trying graded company. Takes shot with new jockey Albarado. He is the real early speed and may try to steal a piece on the speed-favoring Oaklawn stretch. Or he may back all the way up. Just watch, unless odds are stratospheric. Then consider using in lower part of exotics.

    7.   Sporting Chance (Tiznow) is the winner of the grade one Hopeful Stakes last year at Saratoga. He is working nice and gets the services of Velazquez which may tell it all. Has trip over track, albeit when it was muddy and he was bumped. He is a real contender.

    8.   High North (Midnight  Lute) was solidly beaten in the Risen Star last month. Showing little  improvement from 2017 to 2018, even with top jockeys. Maybe in it for the “also ran money”. Pass.

    9.   Zing Zang (Tapit) is an Asmussen runner who faltered in the Southwest Stakes, maybe because of the muddy track. Keeps jockey Lanerie. Should be closing if the pace is fast. Showing improvement. Maybe an exotic play.

    10.Combatant (Scat Daddy) is Asmussen’s best chance to win. Uses one of his favorite jockeys over the Oaklawn track, Santana. Closed nicely on speed favoring track in the Smarty Jones in January. Last race rallied five wide for second. Will be in the money.

   11.Bode Maker (Bodemeister) has local connection and is trying graded company for the first time. Doesn’t appear fast enough to compete with others. Pass.

This race will be determined by pace. Pryor, Sporting Chance, Solomini, Magnum Moon and Title Ready have all shown serious front running styles. All but Pryor seem to prefer to sit just of the pace for a stretch run. In that group Solomini and Sporting Chance are the class and the most dangerous. Solomini is coming out of a Key Race in December. Combatant could be a serious closer, if the speed collapses. 

Here is how I think they may finish:

1.   Solomini (#3)

2.   Combatant (10)

3.   Sporting Chance (#7

4.   Zing Zang (#9)

5.   Curlin”s Honor (#2)/ Pryor (#6)

Handigamble of $100—

1.   $30 to Win and $30 to Place on Solomini (#3) = ($60)

2.   $3 Trifecta Key #3/7, 9,10/2,6,7,9,10  = $36*

(*$4 for a beverage to celebrate)

Handicapper's Corner: Triple Bend S. (G1)

Looking at Longshots in the Triple Bend Stakes

By: Robert Marks, They're In The Gate (and on Twitter, @theyreinthegate)

On Saturday, March 10, 2018, Santa Anita will be host the Grade One Triple Bend Stakes for 4-year-olds and upward. The purse is $400,000 and it on the dirt going 7 furlongs.

Here are the participants listed by Post Positions, Horse, Jockey, Trainer and odds:

Here are the horses we will focus on:

Giant Expectations - This 5 year old is cross entered in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (aka the Big Cap). As of this writing no decision has been made but we expect him to run in the Big Cap and we will not focus on him in our handicapping. Should he decide to stay in the Triple Bend, he is a must use based on his experience and speed. (SCRATCHED).  

Bobby Abu Dhabi - This lightly raced 4 year old with 3 wins out of 6 starts last raced on 12/31/17 in an allowance race at Santa Anita over 6 furlongs drawing clear for the win. Of his 3 wins, 2 are on this track. He seems to like plenty of time between starts which he gets here with a 11-week rest. Out of Macho Uno he certainly has the class to win and we like the juicy 8-1 odds.

City of Light - City of Light comes off a nice looking front-running score in the Malibu Stakes (G1) Dec. 26. His sire is Quality Road colt and he looks to make his 4-year-old debut in the Triple Bend, at the same seven-furlong distance, a winning one. Likes the track and distance and will probably be the post time favorite.

Captain Scotty - Beam me up folks, this is a lightly raced fast 4-year-old horse who has done nothing but win with 2 wins in 2 starts. Making a big step up to a Grade 1 in only his 3rd start. Love the fact that Javier Castellano takes the reins. He will have to break cleanly out of the gate to be a factor.

Selections

We will box Bobby Abu Dhabi, City of Light and Captain Scotty in a trifecta box and a lesser exacta box bet on Bobby Abu Dhabi and City of Light. Should Bobby Abu Dhabi or Captain Scotty come out on top, the payout will be nice.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race:

Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

4,5,6

Exacta Box: $10 Exacta Box ($40)

4,5

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!