Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Hot pace expected in Louisiana Derby

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

The Fair Grounds spur of the Road to the Kentucky Derby comes to an end on Saturday with the Louisiana Derby (G2), carded as the day's 14th race. The 1 3/16 mile race offers a $1,000,000 purse as well as 100-40-20-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points: enough to ensure the winner can move on to Louisville, and make it very likely that its second-place finisher has a spot in the starting gate as well.

The race drew a field of eight runners including the top three finishers from both the Lecomte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2): Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon.

  Despite the smaller field, as Derby preps go, there is no shortage of early pace in the Louisiana Derby. Though, the more class-proven horses do have some ability to lay close to — but not on — the lead.

Rightandjust will certainly send; he set the pace last out in the Risen Star as well, before fading. Midnight Bourbon will be involved from the start from his near-outside gate. He should be able to get a clean trip, and has run very nice races from either on or just off the pace, though it's a question whether he actually wants that last furlong of the mile and three sixteenths.

Starrinmydreams, with the rail draw, might be forced to go; he did track the pace in his allowance win, though he led at every call in his maiden sprint win. He drew the rail last out in the Risen Star, but a slow break and a rank demeanor early spelled disaster late. Proxy has been close to the pace when hitting the board in both the Lecomte and the Risen Star, but won both his maiden and N2L races on the front end. He still needs to prove that he can win a race from off the pace, though it's easy to imagine he will be in the running for a piece.

Then there's both Run Classic and Mandaloun. Neither has been a pacesetter, but both have looked good tracking close to the pace. 

Mandaloun, of course, is the more class-proven in this flight. The Brad Cox trainee was the talking horse leading into the Lecomte, though he disappointed as the odds-on chalk. Adding blinkers for the Risen Star, his second career route try, worked out very nicely. He tracked in range and took over in the lane, showing good confidence to win by a length and a quarter. He ran like a horse who appreciated that mile and an eighth distance, and who should be able to handle the extra sixteenth.

Run Classic tries stakes company for the first time. He only debuted on January 16, on the Lecomte undercard, finishing second in a six-furlong maiden. The stretch out to two turns suited Run Classic nicely; he returned in a route maiden on the Risen Star undercard, got bet down to 1.7/1 favoritism, and crushed the opposition. Trainer Bret Calhoun is razor-sharp with last-out maiden winners, and they're not all chalks: not only does he have a 20% win rate over the last three years, but a flat-bet profit in that span.  And, Calhoun just won the Louisiana Derby two years ago with a last-out maiden winner, By My Standards.

The only true off-pace horses in this field are Hot Rod Charlie and O Besos.  O Besos ran fourth in the Risen Star, his first try over a two-turn trip. Hot Rod Charlie is more class-proven. (There's a trainer change on paper, but Leandro Mora is Doug O'Neill's assistant and he always takes over if O'Neill is serving a suspension.) Hot Rod Charlie went straight from a maiden victory to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; he defied his 94/1 odds and ran second, less than a length beaten by eventual champion Essential Quality. He returned in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), and despite having some trouble, he only lost a three-way win photo to Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian. That's plenty of class to fit in well in the Louisiana Derby.

 

Selections:

#6 Mandaloun (8/5)

#3 Run Classic (12/1)

#5 Hot Rod Charlie (3/1)

 

Longshot: Assuming all the speed stays in, #6 O Besos (15/1) has some reason to improve in this spot. He will have to improve, as he ran a well-beaten fourth behind main contenders Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star. However, he has good form over the Fair Grounds dirt, and he has the right running style to come pick up the pieces in a race where there should be some pieces to grab late. And, his pedigree suggests this two-turn distance may suit him. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Orb out of a listed stakes winner going two turns on the Fair Grounds dirt. He hasn't yet shown what you can call a devastating late kick against good horses, but in a mile and three sixteenths race with enough speed drawn in, it's usually smart to find that plodder who is going to keep on coming in order to make the exotics pay off. O Besos is always improving position late, and looks like that longer-priced plodder.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Beholder Mile (G1)

 Behold the Queen

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

 

This week the three-year-old filly of the year, Swiss Skydiver, starts her 4-year-old year as the Morning Line favorite in the grade one Beholder Mile on Saturday. She is and should be the favorite. However, the other six in the race think this might be the race to beat the queen.

 

 

So, let's look at the field and see which are the contenders in this race.

 

    1.   Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) after winning the Preakness Stakes against the boys, she dropped anchor finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI). With three months rest and nice works, she should be ready to start her four-year-old career. Her race to lose.

    2.   Golden Principal (Constitution) comes to a second start in 2021. Distance may be her major problem. The question is, why did trainer Baffert change his last four races’ jockey, Mike Smith, for a new pilot. She may not be fast enough for this field.

    3.   Harvest Moon (Uncle Mo) beat Swiss Skydiver in the Distaff, which was her last race. If she can be strategically placed behind the frontrunners, she will be dangerous in the stretch. Her regular jockey Prat knows her well and will get the best race she has out of her.

    4.   Sanenus (Scat Daddy) showed her ability last time out with a powerful move in the stretch to win by 6 lengths in the La Canada Stakes (GIII) over the Santa Anita track. She should be out of the gate fast and position herself for a stretch run. Sheet numbers say she is ready.

    5.   Miss Stormy (Tapizar) is one of the three 5-year-olds in the race but is stepping up in company. She seems unlikely to keep up with the pace of the race.

    6.   As Time Goes By (American Pharoah) is one of two entries for trainer Bob Baffert and his best chance of winning the race. She has front end speed with a form that suggests she is ready to improve to graded stakes. Switching to Mike Smith reinforces Baffert’s respect for the filly and confidence in her and his jockey. Could upset.

    7.   This Tea (Curlin) is a closer that could benefit from an early pace. Yet her huge jump in class is concerning. Not likely to get many calls.

    8.   Clockstrikestwelve (New Year’s Day) is another 5-year-old trying graded company for the first time. Perhaps the strongest closer in the field, but may not be fast enough to catch the winner.

 

Analysis

This will be a great race. Pace should be solid. Swiss Skydiver has all the class and ability. The layoff and low odds make her unattractive to back. Sanenus and Golden Principal should force the pace with Baffert’s horse, Golden Principal, setting the race up for his other horse, As Time Goes By, to finish best.

Here is how it should finish:

    1.   As Time Goes By (#6 )

    2.   Swiss Skydiver (#1)

    3.   Harvest Moon (#3)

    4.   Sanenus (#4)

 

Handigambling

$20 to win and place –As Time Goes By (#6) --$40

$1 Tri-box –#1, #2, #3,  #4 and #6 ---$60 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Santa Anita Handicap (G1)

 Westward-Ho to the Santa Anita Handicap

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

American author and newspaper editor Horace Greeley is credited with the phrase, “Go West, young man,” and for this weekend, ThoroFan will heed his advice and head in that direction. Our cross-country travel takes us to Santa Anita Park, a.k.a. “The Great Race Place,” for the $400,000 Santa Anita Handicap.

The Santa Anita Handicap, which once offered a purse of $1 million, has lost some of its luster from its glory years when it was considered the most important race for older horses in North America during the winter racing season. Overseas races such as the Dubai World Cup and the Saudi Cup, both carrying far wealthier purses, have attracted some top U.S. runners; however, the Big ‘Cap with all of its rich history, is still a special race.

The 2021 renewal features a field of eight, headlined by Godolphin’s homebred, Maxfield, undefeated in five starts. The Brendan Walsh trainee shipped in from his home base in New Orleans and was installed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite for the Big ‘Cap, his first start in California.

This year’s edition has the look of a competitive contest, with six of the eight combatants having 10 races or less on their resumes.

Scheduled post time is 7:30 eastern time - Let’s have a brief look at the horses from the rail out.

 

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer - ML

1 - Independence Hall – Flavien Pratt/Michael McCarthy – 4-1: In the first start of his four-year-old season, he outran his 27-1 odds when third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). He stalked a quick pace that day alongside a couple of others, but when those two opponents faded, this one kept fighting and just got passed late for the place spot. Since he was well-beaten in his previous Grade 1 tries, his last effort could be an impending sign that he’s improving and might belong in top company. He can authenticate it with another solid showing.

2 - Maxfield – Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh – 8-5: Has been perfect throughout an injury-shortened five-race career. That last win at Fairgrounds in the Mineshaft (G3) was a solid prep leading up to this. He’s never shown any signs of rust when returning from extended time off, so expect him to fire his best shot again, but will it be good enough going 10 furlongs?

3 - Kiss Today Goodbye –Mike Smith/Eric Kruljac – 8-1: After winning the San Antonio (G2) two starts back, he was shipped east to Gulfstream Park for the Pegasus World Cup (G1), where he was badly outrun. Since returning back home, he’s fired a couple of bullet works, so look for a better showing from this colt.

4 - Coastal Defense – John Velazquez/Dale Romans – 15-1: Exits a sixth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) after a pair of fourth-places efforts in the Clark (G1) and Fayette(G2). He’ll have to improve dramatically to win. Don’t see it happening.

5 - Express Train – Juan Hernandez/John Sheriffs – 3-1: He missed over a year of racing, but when he returned last September, he dispatched 11 rivals in an allowance race after having trouble at the beginning of the six-and-a-half-furlong affair. Was second in the seven-furlong Malibu (G1) against Charlatan, then stretched out to win the nine-furlong San Pasquale easily. He’s had only one bad race in eight-lifetime starts, and that came in his lone try on turf. Top contender.

6 - Idol – Joel Rosario/Richard Baltas – 6-1: Last out in the San Pasquale (G2), this colt was third, and that followed a runner-up placing in the San Antonio (G2), where he missed by a half-length. Obviously, he possesses the talent to be highly competitive at the graded level off just a non-winner allowance race. Expect another good effort.

7 - Tizamagician – Drayden Van Dyke/Richard Mandella – 12-1: He briefly flirted on the Kentucky Derby trail early last season before being pointed in another direction. He’s been in top form since early September and comes off a second-place finish in the San Pasquale (G2), where he set the pace before tiring. He’s done all his racing in California, splitting time between Del Mar and Santa Anita, so this is ‘home sweet home’ for him. Likely to be the pacesetter but appears to be better suited at 9 furlongs.

8 - King Guillermo – Abel Cedillo/Juan Avila – 12-1: Last year’s Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up missed the Kentucky Derby when injured prior to the big race. Since his return in late fall, he’s been beaten by a total of 34-lengths in two races. Needs a major form reversal.

 

ANALYSIS:

Express Train has been on the improve all winter long at Santa Anita. He delivered the best win of his career last out in the San Pasquale. He’s in top form, bred for the distance, proven over the surface, has tactical speed and his workouts since his last race have him sharp.

Maxfield has been steady race in/race out, wearing down his rivals from off the pace with his late kick. However, a big concern is he’s being asked to run a mile and a quarter after having never traveled further than one-mile and one-sixteenth. At low odds, that’s an awful risk to bet on. Kiss Today Goodbye is returning to Santa Anita, where he registered two of his three wins. He should be finishing well at this distance. So too, Idol who had trouble in his last two races and now gets a significant rider change to Rosario. Assuming he stays clear of trouble, this one should also be running on late. Independence Hall was able to redeem himself last time out in the Pegasus. He got a good trip that day, and being drawn inside here, he could get a similar trip. His good tactical speed should have him forwardly placed and ready to strike in the stretch.

 

WAGER: A win bet on Express Train and put the other four with him in exactas and trifectas.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Fountain of Youth (G2)

 Fountain of Youth Picks N'Plays

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan

Welcome back to Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth. The weather is ideal and forecast to be partly cloudy, high of 81, with winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph; unlike the remainder of the country. It is a serious disappointment not to be able to see this live for many of us as this is the second leg of our racing highlights in Florida land for the Derby quest.

 

I went back and looked at the last six races just to check. In only two of the last six did the favorite win. Upstart (4-5) in 2015 crossed the line first and was DQ’d and placed second to Itsaknockout (5.4-1), with the late closing Frammento (63-1) getting third. And Frosted (4-1), you guys remember Frosted? Held on for fourth.

The other fav to win was Mohaymen (2-5) took the honors over Zulu (4-1) and Fellowship (22-1).

Last year’s winner, Ete Indien (3-1) went gate to wire, winning by 8.5 lengths with a blanket of four behind him with Candy Tycoon(22-1) and As Seen on TV (2.8-1 second fav).

The other years 2017-2019, saw better odds with late closing Gunnevera (4-1) followed by Promised Fulfilled (18-1) going wire to wire and the future Travers winner Code of Honor (9-1) taking the 2019 version from mid-pack.

To me, that adds up to short odds, may well lose to a well-timed ride, or the front runner who can stay there and improve his position. I wouldn’t leave the favorites off my tickets, but I would play the best longshots with them as the history says it’s so.

 Short odds  

#8-Greatest Honour (9-5) mid to late-closing when winning the Holy Bull here. Great turn of foot to win by 5+ lengths. Gotta use him.

#4-Fire at Will (7-2) has been taking a rest since his two-year-old campaign on the turf. Good works and a trainer who brings back horses off a rest. Gotta use him, too.

#1-Drain the Clock (5-1) has been sprinting on or near the lead very well, winning 4 of 5 and lost only after his iron broke. He’s by Maclean’s Music, so distance should not be an issue. Like him a lot because I think we get a price for him.

His neighbor, #2-Prime Factor (5-1) was soundly beaten as the odds-on favorite in the Holy Bull after seven furlongs of tracking. Not a top pick for me.

#7-Tarantino (8-1) (man, I love the name), brought to us by Pioneer of the Nile, excelled at 27-1 to finish behind Greatest Honour in the Bull. Quite good for a first on dirt. I expect better things from this guy with Gaffalione up and is my Key horse.

 

Longer shots

#3-Sososubtle (20-1), #5-Jirafales (20-1), #6-King's Ovation (15-1), #9-Tiz Tact Toe (30-1), and #10-Papetu (15-1).

I can only see two of these fellas going forward into the mix. Sososubtle and Papetu. Sososubtle has a jockey who could adjust to the speed, has had a great work just prior to the race, and his speed improvement from his first race with a change in surface says he might be a spoiler. Papetu is ridden by Mohaymen’s winning jockey, and although it looks bad with a 10 length loss to Greatest Honour but his rail trip was foiled until after the final turn when he was driving home. Maybe a better position to move into the clear.

 

Handigambling

Gotta use the favorite on top and in the middle.

$3 Trifecta – 8 with 7, 1, 4, 3, 10 with 7, 1, 4, 3, 10 -   $60

$1.50 Trifecta – 7 with 8, 1, 4, 3, 10 with 8, 1, 4, 3, 10 -   $20

$2 Exacta Box – 8, 7, 3 -   $12

$8 Exacta – 8 with 7

Good luck to everyone, and stay safe out there.