Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Buena Vista Stakes (G2)

 Buena Vista Stakes Picks N' Plays

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Member

Initially run in 1988, The Buena Vista for fillies and mares 4yo & up will be contested over a grassy mile for the 32^nd time on Saturday.  Ten entrants are scheduled to go to the gate under clear skies and a presumed firm course in race 7 at “The Great Race Place” - Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. 

 

 

At first glance, this looks like a wide-open affair.  Upon closer inspection, The Buena Vista will indeed be a great race with many places to land.  There looks to be plenty of pace on with 2 entrants who disputed the pace in last month’s 6F Las Cienegas.  Charmaine’s Mia (#8) went on to win that by 2 ½ lengths while Bohemian Bourbon (#1) faded to fifth.  It should be noted that the 4^th place finisher in that one, Superstition, came back to win last week’s Wishing Well.  

Also projected “on the engine” is Nasty (#4), the Richard Baltas trainee who wired the Lady of Shamrock stakes back on opening day traveling today’s one-mile turf distance.  Sprinkle in longshot Heathers Grey (#10), who is also coming out of a turf sprint.

Those four will be pressed by the improving 4yo Going to Vegas and the multiple graded winner Mucho Unusual who both seem to show up at every dance.  If you like deep closers, look no further than another improving 4yo in Red Lark or the California-bred Warren’s Showtime.  No matter which way one lands, this event will have the most hardened of our brethren leaning, snapping, cheering, or whatever other “dance” is done in the final furlong when money and opinions are on the line.

A brief look at the field:

 

1.    Bohemian Bourbon - Jose Valdivia/Michael McCarthy 20-1; Second off the layoff, this 5yo mare will be making start #2 for her new trainer.  She has had a steady diet of turf sprints back east and looks best with a target to run at.  Given she is breaking from the rail and coming out of said sprints, I expect her to towards the lead to secure position.  Being by Midshipman out of a Bernardini mare, one would think a turf mile is within her grasp.  But Ian Wilkes, her former conditioner, tried that only once.  If she wins, you will get paid.

 

    2.   Mucho Unusual - Abel Cedillo/Tim Yakteen 7-2; This Cal-bred mare simply shows up every time and has done so in graded races.  She gets her 5^th new pilot in as many races as Joel Rosario is in the Middle East riding a magic carpet named Knicks Go in the Saudi Cup.  The only blemishes on Mucho’s record are 2 poor runs, both at Keeneland in Grade I’s.  If there was a knock on her, which is not really one, is how long can she keep up this consistency?  For her owner George Krikorian, that is a positive problem to have.  A serious contender.

 

    3.   Warren’s Showtime – Juan Hernandez/Craig Lewis 5-1; The “other” Cal-bred comes in with a record of only missing the board twice in a 16-race career.  This homebred runs on any surface or distance and flat out can run.  She has won 5 of 9 at a mile on turf and has never been off the board in 7 tries on Santa Anita’s green.  She will be running late. Contender.

 

    4.   Nasty – Ricky Gonzales/Richard Baltas 6-1; This lightly raced 4yo has shown flashes of the deadly combination of “lick & stick” in the past.  She can go a sub:46 half-mile and still be around at the finish.  The others better keep her in their sights.  If she shakes looks, watch out.  That said, she has shown the ability to sit just off another speed like she did in the Autumn Miss stakes.  It just so happens in that affair that she was tagged late by 2 foes in today’s race (Warren’s Showtime & Going to Vegas). Contender at a price.

 

    5.   Red Lark – Drayden Van Dyke/Paddy Gallagher 8-1; This deep closer looks to be coming into her own.  She exits 3 Grade I tries all at longer distances, where she won one of them.  If the pace is hot, this could set up perfectly for her.  In her first race off a short break, the G1 American Oaks, she closed very well into a slow pace.  She was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths by Chad Brown’s Duopoly, who lulled them to sleep on the front end.  Prior to that, she was a good closing 4^th, beat 1 ¾ lengths for it all in the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland.  She is not chasing those types in here.  Price Play and Pick.

 

    6.   Sedamar – Rueben Fuentes/Shelbie Ruis 8-1; Her 2020 campaign had her on a steady diet of state-bred races where she was always competitive.  In her 1^st start this year, she did come within ¾ of a length to Mucho Unusual in the G3 Megahertz.  That margin of victory was deceiving as the winner had plenty left.  Longshot.

 

    7.   Going to Vegas – Mario Gutierrez/Richard Baltas 6-1; This miss finished in front of Red Lark in the American Oaks last out.  She was much closer to that slow pace and kept on well.  She will appreciate getting away from Chad Brown’s army as that was the 2^nd in a row where he shipped out and won where Going to Vegas ran 2^nd.  This $50k claim last June has proven to be a shrewd move as she has run 2^nd her last 3 efforts, all graded races.  She consistently hits the board and does so at double-digit odds.  Board threat.

 

    8.   Charmaine’s Mia – Flavien Prat/Phil D’Amato 3-1;  This speedy gal, like the rail horse, is coming out of turf sprints and is making her 2^nd start off a layoff.  What looks to be a private purchase from her former owner/trainer, Michael McDonald, ‘ Mia has plenty of gas to be forwardly placed from her outside box.  Can she carry her speed 2 turns is the question.  If allowed to roll early, we will find out. Contender.

 

    9.   Sloane Garden (GB) – Tiago Pereira/Manuel Badilla 12-1; A 5yo mare who ships down from Golden Gate to make her first start of the year, will need to step up her game to compete.  The waters are much deeper in Southern California but hey, why not take a shot?  She has a good turn of foot and will be in front of the deep closers.  Perhaps the seas part for her, and she gets the jump. This handicapper won’t be betting on it.  Outsider.

 

    10.Heathers Grey – Jessica Pyfer/Sean McCarthy 20-1; With only three wins to her credit, she seems up against it.  She has yet to clear her “two other than” condition and seems ambitiously placed.  Her outside draw did her no favors either.  Outsider.

 

The Play 

I will be keying Red Lark to catch them all late.  There is plenty of pace here, which is something that she didn’t get in her last few.  She will be a square price, projects a good set up, and looks to breakthrough in this spot.  

I will be using her with Nasty, who seems to have the versatility to “play the break” and position herself in a cozy spot and make her presence felt both early and late.   

I can't leave Mucho Unusual or Warren’s Showtime off my tickets as they shows up every time.  

I plan to stand against Charmaine’s Mia at her odds and her post.  Perhaps she can parlay her Las Cienegas win sprinting to a Buena Vista score going two turns.  I’m not willing to back her at her morning line odds to find out. 

Win/Place - #5

Exacta key Box - #5/2,3,4

Exacta straight #5/2,3,4

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3)

Travel Column, Clairiere hook up in Rachel Alexandra Stakes 

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power 

The competition for 2021 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points heats up with the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3). The contest ups the stakes to 50 points to the winner, with a 20-10-5 tier to second through fourth place.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes, named for the 2009 Champion 3-year-old Filly and Horse of the Year, is the second of three Kentucky Oaks prep races held at the Fair Grounds. The listed Silverbulletday Stakes and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) are the others. Three fillies have completed the Rachel Alexandra Stakes/Kentucky Oaks double in the last decade, and two Rachel Alexandra winners finished third in the Oaks.

The 1 1/16-mile contest initially attracted nine 3-year-old fillies; however, Silverbulletday Stakes, heroine Charlie’s Penny was scratched due to a small bone fracture. She is expected to return to training after a three-month layoff.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes is led by the Golden Rod (G2) winner and runner-up, Travel Column and Clairiere. The Silverbulletday Stakes, runner up Souper Sensational, and third-place finisher Moon Swag will stretch to two turns for the first time.

 

Let’s take a closer look at the fillies.

TRAVEL COLUMN (Frosted - Swingit, by Victory Gallop) is the only graded stakes winner in the field. The pretty gray filly won the Golden Rod Stakes despite a slow start and being bottled up in the stretch. Once she got clear, she ran down  Clairiere to win by a length. The Brad Cox trainee is making her 3-year-old debut in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Two of the last three winners, including Cox’s Monomoy Girl (2018), won this race off a layoff.

Travel Column is bred to handle nine furlongs and farther. Her half-brother Neolithic is multiple Grade 1 stakes-placed at nine and ten furlongs. Their dam Swingit is a multiple stakes-winning turf miler.

CLAIRIERE (Curlin - Cavorting, by Bernardini) looked home free in the Golden Rod until the more experienced Travel Column passed her within a furlong of the wire. Her trainer, Steve Asmussen, conditioned last year’s Rachel Alexandra heroine Finite.

Clairiere, a daughter of Curlin, is the first foal out of the multiple Grade 1 winner, Cavorting. The mare earned $2,063,000 in 13 starts from six to nine furlongs.

 

SOUPER SENSATIONAL (Curlin - Kateri, by Indian Charlie)  put forth a reasonable effort in her switch from Polytrack to the Fair Ground’s dirt to finish second in the Silverbulletday Stakes after a wide trip. She appeared once-paced through the stretch but owns a 101 late-pace speed figure, the highest in the field. 

Souper Sensational’s dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning millionaire Tiz Miss Sue and 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint hero Bulletin.

 

MOON SWAG (Malibu Moon - Yara, by Put It Back) finished third in the Silverbulletday, bested by four lengths, although she made up ground on Souper Sensational.

Moon Swag’s full brother Heavy Roller hit the board in a pair of stakes at Assiniboia. However, their dam is a Grade 2 winning miler, and this is the family of Healthy Addiction and her accomplished daughter My Sweet Addiction, both Grade 1 winners. Moon Swag should appreciate the extra distance here.

 

ZOOM UP (Upstart - Open Agenda, by More Than Ready) is ready to do just that after beating winners by a handy two lengths in an Allowance Optional Claimer in her last start. Her Brisnet speed figures are moderate, but it’s time for this Tom Amoss trainee to test the graded stakes waters.

The daughter of Razorback Handicap hero Upstart is a half-sister to multiple stakes placed turf sprinter What'sontheagenda.

 

OFF WE GO  (Air Force Blue - Conquest Strate Up, by Not Bourbon) is the second of a trio of Rachel Alexandra Stakes fillies conditioned by Tom Amoss. Off We Go closed in the slop in her last start to miss by 3/4-length. She passed the pacesetter after the wire. The extra distance should suit Off We Go, but her speed figures are on the low side.

By European Champion 2-year-old out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter, one would think Off We Go would have a promising future on turf. She may wind up there eventually. Off We Go’s second dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and prominent sire Curlin.

 

LITTLESTITIOUS (Ghostzapper - Broadway Play, by Quality Road) (6/1). The Tom Amoss trainee showed speed and fade in the Silverbulletday and faded to fifth. It was the first time she’s finished out of the money in her six-race career.  So did she regress after her huge ten-length victory in the My Trusty Cat Stakes at Delta Downs, or is she out of her league?

Littlestitious is bred to progress with maturity and should love the extra distance. Her dam is a half-sister to Broadway Empire, a multiple Grade-3 winner at 1 1/8-miles and 1 1/36-miles.

 

BECCA'S ROCKET (Orb - Idoitmyway, by Unbridled's Song) brings her game on every surface. She’s a winner over turf and mud and has finished second on dirt. The free-running filly tuned up for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes with a 3/4-length victory at a mile over Sam Houston’s turf course. She graduated at the Fair Grounds last year with a 4 1/4-length victory in the slop.  Becca's Rocket

Becca's Rocket is a half-sister to a trio of stakes earners, the winning sprinter Star Student, Grade 2-placed turf miler Another Time and stakes-placed turf miler Muchmorethanthis.

 

Becca's Rocket does her best work on the front end. She’ll try to take them gate to wire in her 2-turn debut. Definitely a speed/fade candidate. She may be joined on the front end by Zoom Up, with Littlestitious not far behind. Travel Column, Off We Go, and Souper Sensational have tactical speed. Joe Talamo takes over the reins on Clairiere, and she may show a little more zip from post 1.

 

#1 CLAIRIERE (5-2)

#8 TRAVEL COLUMN (2-1)

#2 SOUPER SENSATIONAL (8-1)

#3 MOON SWAG (#15-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Withers Stakes (G3)

 Withers Stakes Could be a Risky Business

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

The Withers Stakes (GII) is one of the major prep races for the Kentucky Derby held at the New York Racing Association’s Aqueduct Racetrack. It is distinguished by its two-turns and mile and an eighth distance—just an 1/8 mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. As with most of the early Derby prep races, trainers test their horse’s abilities, often asking for something few have done before. That allows for handicapping surprises.

Weather in New York for the 4:25 post time on Saturday should be dry and cool, making for a fair race. Here is the field:

1.       Shackqueenking (Shackaford) is a Laurel shipper with a new jockey. He should be in a fast early pace. Although he should handle the distance, he likely will be passed in the stretch. Maybe in the exotics.

2.       Royal Number (Palace Malice) will come out running seeking the shortest distance to the finish on the rail. He is trying stakes company for the first time. Another Maryland shipper that has shown his like for the distance. Maybe in the mix, if the closers don’t catch him.

3.       Capo Kane (Street Sense) won the Jerome Stakes by over 6 lengths in January. He is the clear favorite to win. The added distance will test his Derby readiness. Dylan Davis returns for the ride after the Jerome. Good sign. Odds this low at this stage in prep races are difficult to accept.

4.       Mr. Doda (Uptowncharliebrown) is a claimer that took six tries to break his maiden, which occurred in his last race. The distance will be a challenge for this colt. Will need more time to mature and compete at this level.

5.       Risk Taking (Medaglia d’Oro) is one of trainer Chad Brown’s potential stars. He has stayed in New York, working at Belmont this winter. This might be an indication of Brown’s intentions. Will be sitting off the pace ready to run in the stretch. Getting a weight advantage from two other horses might help at the wire.

6.       Overtook (Curlin) has the right breeding for this distance and longer. Although the first time at this level is concerning, along with his poor performance at this distance over this track last November. Pletcher goes to Derby conditioned jockey, Franco, to see if he can get the best out of this one.

7.       Donegal Bay (Uncle Mo) is taking a big step up for the Pletcher barn. Broke his maiden last out at Gulfstream Park going wire-to-wire. May try that approach again, but this time will have serious company challenging him. Distance and stamina are his weakness.

8.       Civil War (Bodemeister) broke his maiden impressively in his first race. Convinced connections he was ready for the big leagues. However, his efforts in the Champagne Stakes (GI) and the Nashua Stakes (GIII) were disastrous, losing by a combined 38 lengths. His return at a lower level wasn’t much better.

9.       Eagle Orb (Orb) was competitive in the Jerome against this race’s favorite, Capo Kane, to whom he gave two pounds. This time, he drops two ponds for a net change of 4 pounds. May make amends for Trainer Rodriguez. Distance may be a major problem for him.

 

Sorting through the field, it looks like three horses will be vying for the early lead--- Shackqueenking, Capo Kane, and Donegal Bay ---although Royal Number may be up close.  With the first turn coming quickly, this will be an advantage for them. However, it looks like the race’s winner will come from the stalking group.  Here is how I think they will finish:

1.       Risk Taking (#5)

2.       Capo Kane (#3)

3.       Shackqueenking (#1)

4.       Royal Number (#2)

 

Handigamble:

$20 win on # 5 Risk Taking

$40 place on #5 Risk Taking

$2 Trifecta Key  #5/#1, #2, #3/#1/#2/#3

$2 Trifecta Key  #1, #2, #3/#5/#1/#2/#3

$.50 Trifecta Box --#1, #2 ,#3, #5