Handicapper's Corner: Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1)

Brilliant Field Set for Del Mar Debutante

By: Laurie Ross, PedigreePower

Since 2000, nine fillies who would later be crowned Champion Two Year Old have contested the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante(G-1). Four of them, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine, Stardom Bound, and Songbird won the Debutante and completed a Debutante/BC Juvenile Fillies double.

 

This year a field of only five hopefuls will enter the starting gate at Del Mar. 

BRILL(8-5) had an impressive debut.  After bobbing at the start, the filly made up ground, going five-wide around the turn, and in a furious charge, ran down Del Mar Mary, who later finished a distant second to Bellafina, yet held off the charge of Boujie Girl by a nose. By prominent filly sire Medaglia d'Oro out of a stakes-winning Malibu Moon mare, Brill is a large, long-striding filly who will improve with distance. She’s trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who trained Champion Songbird, a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro who captured the Del Mar Debutante in 2015.

MOTHER MOTHER (2-1) was impressive in her debut, leading the entire way to win by 6 1/2 lengths.  Although she has high knee action, she lengthened stride down the lane. By Pioneerof The Nile, Mother Mother is a half-sister to 2014 Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and should love the extra distance. Trainer Bob Baffert has sent out seven Debutante winners since 1997, but the last was in 2012. Mother Mother gets a jock switch from Drayden Van Dyke to Joe Talamo, as Van Dyke opted to stick with Brill. 

WATCH ME BURN (15-1) is the most experienced filly in the race, with four races under her saddle. Her BRIS speed figures have improved each time, as has her winning margins in her last two races. The daughter of Hold Me Back had a pre-race breeze over the turf. Alonso Quinonez has piloted the youngster in every start.

BOUJIE GIRL (8-1)  was no match for Belafina in the Sorrento Stakes. The daughter of Flashback broke on top but was four to five wide the entire way while pressing the pace. She ran out of oats in the stretch, missing second place by a nose, and crossed the finish line 4 1/4 lengths behind Bellafina.  Boujie Girl galloped out in front of the tired Bellafina after the wire. Boujie Girl drew the rail, so she’ll get a better trip in the Debutante.

BELLAFINA (9-5) ran them off their feet in the 6F Sorrento Stakes (G2) in her last start, setting wicked early fractions of 21.82, 45.25 and 57.37. She slowed in the stretch, getting her final furlong in 13.24.  Her speed figure took a 19 point upward hike, and her post-race work was a full second slower than her pre-race breeze, a hint that she may regress. In her favor, the Simon Callaghan trainee recorded a 5F bullet move for the Debutante.  The daughter of Quality Road may be fastest out of the gate and has zipped faster early fractions than the rest, but she may not be able to sustain her speed against this field going an extra furlong.

Selections:

Del Mar is overwhelmingly speed-favoring, and there’s no shortage of speed in the race. All except Brill won their races on the lead.   

If Bojie Girl breaks as sharply as she did in the Sorrento, she may vie for the lead with the very quick Bellafina. Mother Mother and Watch Me Burn may stalk them, and Brill will be right there, too.  With only five fillies in contention, this is a jockey’s race.

BRILL (8-5)
 

MOTHER MOTHER (2-1)
 

Longshot: WATCH ME BURN (15-1)
 

Handigambling:

Part of being a successful handicapper is to know which races will return the best ROI for your money. With only five horses in the field, you could conceivably cover the field with a slew of exotic bets, but although you’d be certain of a payout, the return would likely be less than the amount bet.  My advice is save the dollars for a more lucrative betting opportunity and enjoy watching the race.

Handicapper's Corner: Spinaway Stakes (G1)

Pure Silver Headlines Spinaway Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Spinaway Stakes (GI) is the next step for 2-year-old fillies on their quest for 3-year-old stardom. It follows the prestigious Adirondack Stakes (GII) held earlier in the Saratoga meet which was won by the morning line favorite, Pure Silver (1-1). She is likely to repeat, given her running style and the recent speed-favoring track bias over the Saratoga oval. But nothing is for sure in horse racing, especially at the “Graveyard of Champions.”

The small field of five should produce a trouble-free race where the ability of each horse is the major factor in the outcome. Having said that lets look at the field.

    1.   Separationofpowers (Candy Ride (ARG) steps up from a maiden race with a top speed figure. The J. Ortiz and Brown combination needs to be respected as both are fighting for their respective track titles.

    2.   Obvious Two (Take Charge Indy) ships in from Timonium Downs for what looks like a piece of the purse, but not the top piece.

   3.   Lady Ivanka (Tiz Wonderful) is stepping up in company but with a great bullet workout. With the right running style and experience over the Saratoga surface she will be competitive. Her trainer’s success with second time Lasix use must be respected.

    4.   Pure Silver (Mission Impazible) is fast with a 3-3 win record in 2017. She will join the trio of front-running fillies. Her last win at 6 ½ furlongs is closest to today distance of 7 furlongs.

    5.   Maya Malibu (Malibu Moon) is the one likely to benefit from the earlier fast pace scenario—if it falls apart –a factor that will only be known as the race proceeds.

The pace will be hot with three contending for the lead – Separationofpowers (1), Lady Ivanka (3) and Pure Silver (3). 

Value play goes to Lady Ivanka at 9-2 morning line odds. Another determining factor is the use of Lasix. Trainer Rodriguez boasts a 33% win rate when the drug is used the second time. 

Here is how they should finish:

     1.   Lady Ivanka (# 3)

     2.   Pure Silver (#4

     3.   Malibu Moon (#5)

     4.   Separationofpowers (#1)

Handigamble play will be:

$60 to win on # 3, Lady Ivanka

$20 Exacta, Partial wheel –Lady Ivanka (3#) over Pure Silver (#4) and Malibu Moon (#5)

Handicapper's Corner: 2016 Spinaway Stakes (G1)

Spinaway Stakes Looks Like Fun

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Spinaway Stakes Grade I – Two Year Old Fillies – 7 furlongs - $350K

The Spinaway has been contested since 1881 and reflects the best two-year-old filly competition on the closing weekend at Saratoga. At seven furlongs it’s a stretch out that should be hotly contested. The weather should be great and the main track fast. 

Of the seven going today all but two have raced over the track. The remaining two; Pretty City Dancer winner of the Debutante at Churchill has worked over the track and You Know Too, second in a 50K stakes at Delaware has not seen Saratoga. The pace may be one of the fastest of the season with heat coming from several contenders. Closers don’t rule but, I think today’s race will be a closing dash to the finish line. 

#1 Sweet Loretta (5-2) – (Pletcher/Castellano) visually impressive in her last start at Saratoga going six furlongs in  the Schuylerville, she came from near last in a hot pace to win by 4 and a quarter. Following her home was Fun who was near last at the start and is the only other graded stakes participant in the field. Both are proven closers and are able to close on a hot pace. She holds the highest Bris (94) and E speed (92). The connections are at the top of their game, her middle move and ability to close into what is likely a very fast pace through 5 furlongs makes her my top pick. 

#2 Special Risk (20-1) – (Rodríguez/Rosario) Two races prior to Sweet Loretta’s win Special took second by a half in slower late fractions going 5&1/2. Her belated move came from a 4-5 wide and although Rodríguez and Dub won her on a sloppy track two years ago, I think the rest of the field is much tougher today. Her 76 Bris and 83 E-speed doesn’t encourage me either for this sprint. She is not in my top three and would use her in the bottom of the Superfecta, only.    

#3 Runway Doll (3-1) – (Asmussen/Ortiz,J.) Winning impressively on the lead in solid fractions she finished 13 lengths in front on a sloppy track. When challenged on the back stretch she pulled away and was given a single reminder after changing leads and hand risen to a great finish. She can obviously move well and would like to see what she does on a fast track. She is the heat in this race and the Ortiz boys have been at the top of their game. Respectfully, this is a contender and if she gets out on the lead my not be caught on a dry track (which is expected). Posted speeds of 90/89 and her improving works put her second for this one.

#4 Fun (12-1) – (Wilkes/Alvarado) She is graded stakes placed against Sweet Loretta and went wide on the later part of the back stretch after something seemed to compromise her after the start through a quarter mile. Her post position, Alvarado’s move with her in following Sweet Loretta through the final turn, along with her steady work through the stretch give me hope that she will show up for a lesser piece of this one. The middle move from 9 off the lead and the posted late pace figure doesn’t match the effort. She is a proven closer at six furlongs. I have to think she is capable of third or second if the pace is exceedingly fast.

#5 Cherry Lodge (2-1) – (Pletcher/Velazquez) She goes in this race with the least time off after a race she lead with the fastest split times of any runner in today’s event while finishing 5 ½ furlongs in 1:03.3 on the lead throughout. Velazquez is back aboard and choose (I assume) her over Sweet Loretta. Hard to argue with Johnny’s stats in sprints on the main track of 25% on the main track and 24.5% for sprints. Exceeding his next nearest competition by more than 10% for sprints. The additional 990 feet should not be a problem and we may see a slight change in tactics chasing the lead of Runway Doll. I like Cherry for second only because I believe Sweet Loretta can make the pace from the middle and move to close at the same point in the race into the stretch going longer.

#6 Pretty City Dancer (7-2) – (Cassel/Ortiz, I. Jr.) She is the most experienced girl in the race with three races, winning the Debutante 63 days ago. Winning her last two races the speeds posted and the pace line again don’t match the times posted and her position relative to the leader. The time is very good for a young two year old in a blacktype at Churchill. I would quibble about the speeds but, the middle times tell me she can be on or near the lead after three quarters and get it on with the cavalry to the finish. If the break hasn’t caused her a problem, and her works look solid, then I expect she will vie for second and end up third. 

#7 You Know Too (15-1) – (Gorham/Saez) I like this girl’s works as she goes forward, but she has been beaten by weaker and never seen Saratoga. Suez can pull off some good rides but again the competition today is fierce. She is not in my tops and I will throw her in the bottom of a Superfecta.

Wagers…..$102

$8 Exacta  – 1 w 4,5,6,       $24

$0.50 Trifecta -  1 w 3,4,5,6 w 3,4,5,6    $6.   Buy as many as you like. I suggest 9 Trifectas at $0.50   $54

$0.50 Superfecta – 1 w 1,3,4,5,6 w 1,3,4,5,6 w 1,2,3,4,5,6,7     $24

Alternative Wager based on the ML Odds.

$46 win – 5

$37 win – 1

$9 Exacta Box 1,5