Friday, September 1, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Spinaway Stakes (G1)

Pure Silver Headlines Spinaway Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Spinaway Stakes (GI) is the next step for 2-year-old fillies on their quest for 3-year-old stardom. It follows the prestigious Adirondack Stakes (GII) held earlier in the Saratoga meet which was won by the morning line favorite, Pure Silver (1-1). She is likely to repeat, given her running style and the recent speed-favoring track bias over the Saratoga oval. But nothing is for sure in horse racing, especially at the “Graveyard of Champions.”

The small field of five should produce a trouble-free race where the ability of each horse is the major factor in the outcome. Having said that lets look at the field.

    1.   Separationofpowers (Candy Ride (ARG) steps up from a maiden race with a top speed figure. The J. Ortiz and Brown combination needs to be respected as both are fighting for their respective track titles.

    2.   Obvious Two (Take Charge Indy) ships in from Timonium Downs for what looks like a piece of the purse, but not the top piece.

   3.   Lady Ivanka (Tiz Wonderful) is stepping up in company but with a great bullet workout. With the right running style and experience over the Saratoga surface she will be competitive. Her trainer’s success with second time Lasix use must be respected.

    4.   Pure Silver (Mission Impazible) is fast with a 3-3 win record in 2017. She will join the trio of front-running fillies. Her last win at 6 ½ furlongs is closest to today distance of 7 furlongs.

    5.   Maya Malibu (Malibu Moon) is the one likely to benefit from the earlier fast pace scenario—if it falls apart –a factor that will only be known as the race proceeds.

The pace will be hot with three contending for the lead – Separationofpowers (1), Lady Ivanka (3) and Pure Silver (3). 

Value play goes to Lady Ivanka at 9-2 morning line odds. Another determining factor is the use of Lasix. Trainer Rodriguez boasts a 33% win rate when the drug is used the second time. 

Here is how they should finish:

     1.   Lady Ivanka (# 3)
     2.   Pure Silver (#4
     3.   Malibu Moon (#5)
     4.   Separationofpowers (#1)

Handigamble play will be:
$60 to win on # 3, Lady Ivanka
$20 Exacta, Partial wheel –Lady Ivanka (3#) over Pure Silver (#4) and Malibu Moon (#5)

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