Saturday, September 16, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (G1)

Value Plays in the Northern Dancer Stakes

By: Robert Marks, They're in the Gate (and on Twitter @theyreinthegate)

The Northern Dancer Turf Stakes is a Saturday 9/16/17 held at Woodbine racetrack in TorontoOntario in mid-September. A Grade I event with a current purse of C$300,000, it is run at a distance of 1 12 miles on Woodbine's E. P. Taylor turf course. We have a small field of horses with one big favorite.

Here are the participants listed by Post Positions, Horse, Jockey and odds:
1. English Illusion, Eurico Rosa Da Silva, 20-1
2. Camp Creek, Manuel Hernandez, 20-1
3. Noble Thought, Patrick Husbands, 5-1
4. Messi, Jose Ortiz, 4-1
5. Pumpkin Rumble, Jesse Campbell 12-1
6. Seeking Albert, David Moran 15-1
7 Johnny Bear, Luis Contreras 15-1
8 Hawkbill Colm O’Donoghue 3-5

Here is who we like
Hawkbill- The clear class of the field here-this horse sired by Kitten’s Joy, he comes across the big pond looking pretty impressive with a lot of black type races and wins in his ledger. He likes to run in the front and I don’t see anyone catching him. Our rule is not too bet a short odds horse in a short field so we will try to hit the trifecta looking for 2 horses with value.

Johnny Bear- -This horse has won here at same distance on August 30th in the Halton Stakes for Canadian Breds. We always like a horse and jockey that know the turf course and the distance. If anyone can pass the favorite late, it’s a horse and jock that have been there before. Never count out a horse’s memory.  

Camp Creek-This light raced 4-year-old did run this same race last year, finishing 6th. Has only 1 win in 8 starts, but that one win did come at Woodbine in last year’s Breeders Stakes. He hasn’t raced since May, that being at 1 ¼ miles at Belmont Park. But he has looked good at workouts and could clunk up to grab a piece of the exotics.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Box: $20 Exacta Box ($20)
Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!  a 

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