Saturday, September 23, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

West Coast Invaders in the Pennsylvania Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1 - $1M – 1 and 1/8 Miles

The weather should be ideal for race day. 

We have a race that has many who have seen one another over the course of the three-year-old season. There is speed, speed and more speed in this one. I see several who like the front as was seen in the Haskell at Monmouth in July and the late closers or those that can track the pace to the stretch will take the prize. I will look for the one who can be versatile. #4 West Coast is the favorite and rightly so give his race record and performance at the Travers. He is the versatile guy to get it done for this one. It doesn’t hurt that the connections are a threat regardless of where they go to race. 

#5 Irap has been in the money in 75% of his races and the top money earner in the field. His last trip in the Travers looked good and maybe a trip that isn’t four wide and having to take hold for Gunevera’s bump and side-step move in the stretch might have seen a better finish. West Coast was much the best after Irap headed him in the turn to the stretch. I believe he has more to give at the shorter distance. My second pick.

#1 Timeline is a speedy fellow who was hampered during the Haskell more than once and in very tight at the rail in the turn going for home. If he gets on the lead with Javier aboard he could be very dangerous and if not winning he should hold on for some money. 

The remaining field has some interesting characters that will add some spice to the exotics. #8 Irish War Cry gets a new, old, jock who broke his maiden and followed with a second win. Lynch is a savvy rider who cannot be discounted and War Cry plays tough against others. Johnny V gets another chance to show his stuff aboard #2 Outplay with Mr. Pletcher working him well through August and September and the bloodlines say he’s stout. Carmouche (32% at this track) is on for #7 Game Over who has that late kick that can put him in the money. And I find #6 Talking Logistics a truly interesting longshot if the pace gets furious. Frankie Pennington brought him home for second in the Smarty Jones and we know Frankie knows his course.

#10 Giuseppe the Great, #3 Watch Me Whip and #9 Term of Art will have to step it up too much for me to put them on a ticket except at the bottom of the Superfecta.

Bets as I see it.
$3 Trifecta: 4 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,5,6,7,8    Total:  $60
$0.40 Superfecta: 4 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,8   Total:  $40

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