Spinaway Stakes Looks Like Fun
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member
Spinaway Stakes
Grade I – Two Year Old Fillies – 7 furlongs - $350K
The Spinaway has been contested since 1881 and reflects the
best two-year-old filly competition on the closing weekend at Saratoga. At
seven furlongs it’s a stretch out that should be hotly contested. The weather
should be great and the main track fast.
Of the seven going today all but two
have raced over the track. The remaining two; Pretty City Dancer winner of the
Debutante at Churchill has worked over the track and You Know Too, second in a
50K stakes at Delaware has not seen Saratoga. The pace may be one of the
fastest of the season with heat coming from several contenders. Closers don’t
rule but, I think today’s race will be a closing dash to the finish line.
#1 Sweet Loretta
(5-2) – (Pletcher/Castellano) visually impressive in her last start at
Saratoga going six furlongs in the
Schuylerville, she came from near last in a hot pace to win by 4 and a quarter.
Following her home was Fun who was
near last at the start and is the only other graded stakes participant in the
field. Both are proven closers and are able to close on a hot pace. She holds
the highest Bris (94) and E speed (92). The connections are at the top of their
game, her middle move and ability to close into what is likely a very fast pace
through 5 furlongs makes her my top pick.
#2 Special Risk
(20-1) – (Rodríguez/Rosario) Two races prior to Sweet Loretta’s win Special
took second by a half in slower late fractions going 5&1/2. Her belated
move came from a 4-5 wide and although Rodríguez and Dub won her on a sloppy
track two years ago, I think the rest of the field is much tougher today. Her
76 Bris and 83 E-speed doesn’t encourage me either for this sprint. She is not
in my top three and would use her in the bottom of the Superfecta, only.
#3 Runway Doll (3-1)
– (Asmussen/Ortiz,J.) Winning impressively on the lead in solid fractions she
finished 13 lengths in front on a sloppy track. When challenged on the back
stretch she pulled away and was given a single reminder after changing leads
and hand risen to a great finish. She can obviously move well and would like to
see what she does on a fast track. She is the heat in this race and the Ortiz
boys have been at the top of their game. Respectfully, this is a contender and
if she gets out on the lead my not be caught on a dry track (which is expected).
Posted speeds of 90/89 and her improving works put her second for this one.
#4 Fun (12-1) –
(Wilkes/Alvarado) She is graded stakes placed against Sweet Loretta and went
wide on the later part of the back stretch after something seemed to compromise
her after the start through a quarter mile. Her post position, Alvarado’s move
with her in following Sweet Loretta through the final turn, along with her
steady work through the stretch give me hope that she will show up for a lesser
piece of this one. The middle move from 9 off the lead and the posted late pace
figure doesn’t match the effort. She is a proven closer at six furlongs. I have
to think she is capable of third or second if the pace is exceedingly fast.
#5 Cherry Lodge (2-1)
– (Pletcher/Velazquez) She goes in this race with the least time off after a
race she lead with the fastest split times of any runner in today’s event while
finishing 5 ½ furlongs in 1:03.3 on the lead throughout. Velazquez is back
aboard and choose (I assume) her over Sweet Loretta. Hard to argue with
Johnny’s stats in sprints on the main track of 25% on the main track and 24.5%
for sprints. Exceeding his next nearest competition by more than 10% for
sprints. The additional 990 feet should not be a problem and we may see a
slight change in tactics chasing the lead of Runway Doll. I like Cherry for
second only because I believe Sweet Loretta can make the pace from the middle
and move to close at the same point in the race into the stretch going longer.
#6 Pretty City Dancer
(7-2) – (Cassel/Ortiz, I. Jr.) She is the most experienced girl in the race
with three races, winning the Debutante 63 days ago. Winning her last two races
the speeds posted and the pace line again don’t match the times posted and her
position relative to the leader. The time is very good for a young two year old
in a blacktype at Churchill. I would quibble about the speeds but, the middle
times tell me she can be on or near the lead after three quarters and get it on
with the cavalry to the finish. If the break hasn’t caused her a problem, and
her works look solid, then I expect she will vie for second and end up third.
#7 You Know Too
(15-1) – (Gorham/Saez) I like this girl’s works as she goes forward, but
she has been beaten by weaker and never seen Saratoga. Suez can pull off some
good rides but again the competition today is fierce. She is not in my tops and
I will throw her in the bottom of a Superfecta.
Wagers…..$102
$8 Exacta – 1 w 4,5,6, $24
$0.50 Trifecta - 1 w 3,4,5,6 w 3,4,5,6 $6.
Buy as many as you like. I suggest 9 Trifectas at $0.50 $54
$0.50 Superfecta – 1
w 1,3,4,5,6 w 1,3,4,5,6 w 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
$24
Alternative Wager
based on the ML Odds.
$46 win – 5
$37 win – 1
$9 Exacta Box 1,5
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